新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的演变规律及分布特征分析

本文根据《新疆辉煌50年》及三次人口普查数据,分析了新疆维吾尔自治区历年来死亡率、死亡人数、死亡率模式、平均预期寿命等指标的演变过程及分布特征,试图揭示新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的内在变动规律,为计划生育及相关政府部门制定政策提供依据。     

证券业顾客满意度测评模糊技术

本文简要介绍顾客满意度测评模糊模型,探讨证券业顾客满意度评价指标,提出证券业顾客满意度测评模糊技术。     

易班用户黏度的模型构建及研究

2009年下半年,上海市教卫党委、市教委共同研发上海大学生实名互动平台“易班”,目前已覆盖上海所有高校。该研究构建了易班用户黏度的初始模型,并对上海15所高校的319名学生用户进行问卷调查。研究发现：影响易班用户黏度的因素中,用户对于易班的感知安全性最为认可,用户有用性也受到了一定的认可,但感知趣味性、转换成本、满意度3项一级指标认同度较低;易班用户黏度修正模型中,按路径系数影响大小依次为：满意度,感知趣味性,转换成本,感知安全性。     

非线性面板数据聚类方法研究

对于一类变量非线性相关的面板数据,现有的基于线性算法的面板数据聚类方法并不能准确地度量样本间的相似性,且聚类结果的可解释性低。综合考虑变量非线性相关问题及聚类结果可解释性问题,提出一种非线性面板数据的聚类方法,通过非线性核主成分算法实现对样本相似性的测度,并基于混合高斯模型进行样本概率聚类,实证表明该方法的有效性及其对聚类结果的可解释性有所提高。     

The Conversational Model and Child and Family Counselling: Treating Chronic Complex Trauma in a Systemic Framework

Child and Family Counselling Teams in NSW Community Health Services are expected to provide therapeutic services to children who have experienced complex trauma. However, parental trauma is often overlooked or referred elsewhere. A systemic perspective informed by attachment theory and trauma theory provides the basis for addressing parental trauma in Child and Family Counselling Teams, thereby improving parenting. The Conversational Model is an evidence‐based intervention for chronic complex trauma. The foundations of the Conversational Model and its brief component, Short Term Intensive Psychodynamic Psychotherapy, are outlined and a case study is given to illustrate the usefulness of the intervention in Child and Family Counselling. Highlighted is the importance of addressing systemic trauma through parenting to improve attachment quality, family relationships, and children's function.     

Exploring how the social model of disability can be re-invigorated: in response to Mike Oliver

In his 2013 article in Disability & Society, Oliver recommended that the social model should either be replaced or re-invigorated. I argue here that the social model’s current emphasis reflects the social conditions in which it was introduced, and that the model’s impact on disabled people’s lives would increase if its emphasis was to more accurately reflect the current social conditions in the geographical regions in which it is applied. In order to help foster its re-invigoration, I ask five questions for discussion on the way forward for the social model. I identified my questions through examining published writing on the scope of the social model and on the model’s relationship with other models of disability.     

Model selection criteria in beta regression with varying dispersion

We address the issue of model selection in beta regressions with varying dispersion. The model consists of two submodels, namely: for the mean and for the dispersion. Our focus is on the selection of the covariates for each submodel. Our Monte Carlo evidence reveals that the joint selection of covariates for the two submodels is not accurate in finite samples. We introduce two new model selection criteria that explicitly account for varying dispersion and propose a fast two step model selection scheme which is considerably more accurate and is computationally less costly than usual joint model selection. Monte Carlo evidence is presented and discussed. We also present the results of an empirical application.     

气候变化政治对海湾国家的影响

海湾地区气候炎热,淡水资源缺乏。长期以来,海湾国家主要依靠能源出口获取大量资金,借此修建海水淡化工厂等各种设施以适应和改善气候环境的影响。近年来,国际社会在应对全球变暖问题的协调合作中,已形成一种处理全球气候变化的政治。气候变化政治要求各国减少能源消耗和降低二氧化碳排放量以缓解全球变暖趋势,从而对海湾国家以能源出口收益来维护生存环境和社会稳定的基本经济模式构成冲击。面对气候变化政治带来的冲击,海湾国家目前的权宜选择只能是继续扩大能源出口,并尽量拖延实施气候变化协议来进行应对。然而,这种做法虽可以暂时保持海湾国家改善环境的努力和维护其经济政治结构稳定,但却难以消除全球气候变化政治今后长期推动能源结构调整和节能减排所带来的压力。     

社会融合中的性别差异:流动人口工作搜寻时间的实证分析

文章以扩展传统的流动人口社会融合的静态研究视角,使用国家人口计生委2010年上半年流动人口动态监测调查数据,从男女农村流动人口工作搜寻时间的角度进一步比较农村流动人口融入流入地劳动力市场过程的性别差异及影响因素。文章采用持续时间模型,通过研究农村流动人口在流入地城市找工作所花费时间的影响因素,发现虽然在给定时间内,女性流动人口在流入地找到工作所花费的时间比男性要短,但女性找到高收入工作的概率要低于男性,而接受低收入工作的概率要大于男性,从而导致性别区隔的流动人口社会融入模式。     

水电工程移民收入测算模型构建及其应用研究

移民安置的目标已不再仅仅是按照水库蓄水的要求如期将淹没区居民和有关企、事业单位迁出库区,而且还要特别关注移民生产生活水平的恢复与提高。本文在构建水电工程移民收入测算理论模型以及第一手调查数据资料的基础上,建立符合实际经济社会发展状况的西南地区水电工程移民收入的测算模型,研究成果可以在西南地区水电工程移民收入的测算中推广。收入测算的结果也可以为移民政策的调整、改革及完善提供依据。