中国区域能源消费的决定因素及空间溢出效应———基于空间面板数据计量经济模型的实证

应用空间面板计量经济模型分析了中国各省域的能源消费行为、决定因素及其空间溢出效应.研究显示,我国各个省域的能源需求主要由产业结构、经济增长和人口增长等因素决定,价格机制在调控能源需求方面还未能发挥出应有的作用.应用空间滞后面板计量经济模型和空间误差面板计量经济模型对区域能源消费行为的空间溢出效应进行分析检验证实:邻近区域的能源消费行为未能影响到本地区的能源消费,但能源利用效率等被忽略的因素对邻近区域的能源消费行为具有很强的溢出效应.     

基于主成分分析法的我国棉花生产向西北扩张分析

为了探讨我国棉花生产是否具有向西北扩张转移的可能性,在分析甘肃、陕西、山西3省棉花生产的气候及灌溉条件基础上,运用主成分分析方法对我国14个棉花生产省(区)棉花生产的技术经济条件进行了综合评价。结果表明:甘肃、陕西、山西分别属于最适宜、较适宜、一般的棉花生产区。得出结论:甘肃省可以发展成为我国西北地区继新疆之后的又一个棉花优势生产区;陕西省可以进一步稳定为我国棉花主产区。我国棉花主产区存在进一步向西北地区扩张转移的可能性。     

以连盐铁路建设为契机构建“一核三带”产业布局——对连云港铁路运输格局重大变化的思考

国家决策进行＂连盐铁路＂建设,对于加快构建以连云港为中心的区域经济发展新格局是一个重大的机遇。在阐述＂连盐铁路＂建设促进区域经济发展功能和作用的基础上,对构建连云港市＂一核三带＂产业布局进行了思考,提出了＂一核三带＂产业布局的政策建议。     

Evaluating housing needs with the use of GIS

Rosario (Argentina) has different levels of housing quality and access to physical and social infrastructure. To assess the needs of newly decentralised districts, it is necessary to supply the municipality with new tools to analyse weaknesses and potentialities. The use of GIS can help in this evaluation. It can be implemented at the Public Housing Service to detect problem areas and improve the allocation of resources by efficiently targeting housing needs. Indicators are used to measure different levels of housing needs and provision of basic services. Spatial inequity related to the access to social infrastructure is calculated for the most disadvantaged groups. Expressed demand is also calculated and compared with the demand derived from the indicators. According to the evaluation it can be concluded that the city of Rosario is facing disparities inside the districts. The combined use of derived demand with expressed demand proves to be efficient to detect cases of housing needs where derived demand via indicators is showing lower levels of demand or hiding the situation completely. The growing demand of GIS tools and the availability of census data in digital format will improve and consolidate the evaluation of housing needs and its effect on spatial inequity.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for spatial models by Markov chain Monte Carlo stochastic approximation

We propose a two-stage algorithm for computing maximum likelihood estimates for a class of spatial models. The algorithm combines Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the Metropolis–Hastings–Green algorithm and the Gibbs sampler, and stochastic approximation methods such as the off-line average and adaptive search direction. A new criterion is built into the algorithm so stopping is automatic once the desired precision has been set. Simulation studies and applications to some real data sets have been conducted with three spatial models. We compared the algorithm proposed with a direct application of the classical Robbins–Monro algorithm using Wiebe's wheat data and found that our procedure is at least 15 times faster.     

SAR模型在省域和县域农民收入中的应用研究

 本文利用各省财政农业人均支出、农村人均用电量作为解释变量，建立了农民人均收入空间自回归(SAR)模型。模型数据分析表明：我国农民人均收入存在明显的空间自相关现象，它反映了省际农民收入存在聚集效应；农民人均收入对财政农业人均支出、农村人均用电量存在明显的空间依赖性；财政农业支出对农民增收产生积极的正面影响，农村用电量是衡量农民收入水平的重要有效指标。考虑到省际间差异可能太大，文章还对福建省67个县市进行了同样的问题研究，并得出了相似的结论。     

论重庆主城枢纽港区的布局

三峡工程蓄水,一方面为重庆市发展航运创造了有利条件,另一方面也给主城枢纽港区的规划布局带来了一定的困难,这就是在变动回水区产生不同程度的累积性泥沙淤积和水位壅高。探索主城变动回水区的港区布局问题,并提出建议。     

可持续发展与东莞市城市规划定位

城市规划的核心是可持续发问题。城市规划定位的内容主要涉及到经济定位、人口定位、资源定位、生态环境定位和文化定位。本文通过对东莞市城市规划定位的分析 ,阐述了构建可持续发展的城市规划体系的理论和方法     

一类工厂作业单元布置优化方案

在生产制造系统中,存在着在制品的流动成本问题。目前工厂设备布置的主要方法存在不足。在总结、归纳当量物流量的计算方法后,笔者提出了工厂作业单元布置优化的新方案,并以某企业实际厂房改造为例,对新方案进行了评价、比较,最后在考虑了影响在制品流动的多种因素的情况下,给出了具有实用价值的工厂作业单元布置优化步骤与方法。