分布未知情况下的空间滞后模型检验

 在扰动项分布未知的情况下,直接采用传统的空间模型检验方法是存在问题的。针对传统空间模型检验方法的不足,本文以Lee和Yu（2010）的研究为基础,采用Lee和Liu（2006）提出的最优矩条件,构造分布未知情况下空间滞后模型的稳健检验统计量。这种检验方法仅需参数的一致估计量,便于计算。蒙特卡罗结果表明,在小样本情况下,本文提出的检验有良好的性质,且明显优于Saavedra（2003）提出的检验。     

江苏沿海湿地旅游的"点-轴系统"开发

点-轴系统理论作为区域开发的基础性理论,对区域旅游开发具有非常重要的理论价值和现实指导意义。本文在分析江苏沿海湿地旅游资源类型和空间分布的基础上,针对旅游开发布局中存在的主要问题,以点-轴系统理论为基础,构建点-轴开发模式,提出该模式下的发展措施,从而优化旅游空间结构,实现江苏沿海湿地旅游的可持续发展。     

制造业与生产性服务业耦合能否促进空间协调——基于285个城市数据的检验

产业空间协调发展兼有产业关联与空间关联的特征,空间集聚与空间转移具有实现产业协调与区域协调的二重协调作用。本文基于中国285城市2003—2016年数据,采用耦合协调度模型和空间面板杜宾模型验证制造业与生产性服务业协调发展所带来的空间协调发展问题。耦合协调度模型得到年度制造业与生产性服务业处于良好协调发展区间,城市制造业与生产性服务业耦合协调度较低,67.37%的城市处于濒临失调衰退区间与勉强协调发展区间。空间面板杜宾模型得到制造业与生产性服务业协调发展的正向溢出作用促进了区域协调发展,空间集聚与空间转移的作用机制具有非线性特征,对本地产业协调发展具有先弱化后增强的作用,但对相邻地区产业协调发展具有一定的虹吸效应。因此,建议增强产业与空间的系统性,强化产业空间集聚与空间转移的资源配置能力,发挥产业耦合协调作用促进空间协调发展。     

空间溢出视角下的对外直接投资与母国产业结构升级

本文基于改进的经典Chenery“标准结构”模型,利用2003-2015年中国对外直接投资以及产业发展的省际面板数据,首先采用Geweke因果关系检验分析了对外直接投资与母国产业结构升级的互为因果关系,再运用动态空间计量方法实证检验了对外直接投资对母国产业结构升级的影响。实证结果显示：对外直接投资不仅对本地区的产业结构升级有促进作用,而且对其邻近地区的产业结构升级也有促进作用;同时还发现产业结构升级存在显著的时间滞后效应,即滞后一期的产业结构调整促进了现期产业结构升级;进一步发现对外直接投资对国内产业结构升级的影响表现出明显的地区差异,仅仅在东部地区对外直接投资对产业结构升级有显著的促进作用,而在中西部地区并未发现对外直接投资对产业结构升级有促进作用。     

动态面板空间随机前沿模型的参数估计及应用

生产效率一般会受到空间相关性和时间滞后效应的影响,不易准确测算。本文考虑时空双重滞后特征,提出一种动态面板数据空间随机前沿模型,针对模型的内生性问题,借鉴已有的估计方法,本文提出一种广义矩估计方法（Generalized Method of Moments,GMM）,并证明了参数估计的一致性。在应用分析中,利用本文所提出的理论模型实证分析了我国战略性新兴产业发展的效率,该理论模型能够客观、科学地测算技术效率,实证结论验证了理论模型的应用效果。     

Family separation and refugee mental health–A network perspective

How do the structure and relational features of family networks affect refugees’ mental health after migration, particularly when refugees are geographically separated from their family? Using the first wave of the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees, which is representative of the population of refugees who arrived in Germany between 2013 and 2016, this study finds that the size of the nuclear family has a significant positive relationship with refugees’ mental health, whereas family separation has a significant negative relationship. In addition to members of the nuclear family, only fathers show a significant positive correlation with refugees’ mental health. The structural and relational aspects are discussed in light of health literature focusing on migration stressors and their relationship with mental health as well as in the context of changing family reunification policies in Germany amid the increase in immigration of refugees since 2015.     

Spatial estimation and rescaled spatial bootstrap approach for finite population

In this study, an attempt has been made to improve the sampling strategy incorporating spatial dependency at estimation stage considering usual aerial sampling scheme, such as simple random sampling, when the underlying population is finite and spatial in nature. Using the distances between spatial units, an improved method of estimation, viz. spatial estimation procedure, has been proposed for the estimation of finite population mean. Further, rescaled spatial bootstrap (RSB) methods have been proposed for approximately unbiased estimation of variance of the proposed spatial estimator (SE). The properties of the proposed SE and its corresponding RSB methods were studied empirically through simulation.     

Estimation of partially specified spatial panel data models with random-effects and spatially correlated error components

This paper studies estimation of a partially specified spatial panel data linear regression with random-effects and spatially correlated error components. Under the assumption of exogenous spatial weighting matrix and exogenous regressors, the unknown parameter is estimated by applying the instrumental variable estimation. Under some sufficient conditions, the proposed estimator for the finite dimensional parameters is shown to be root-N consistent and asymptotically normally distributed; the proposed estimator for the unknown function is shown to be consistent and asymptotically distributed as well, though at a rate slower than root-N. Consistent estimators for the asymptotic variance–covariance matrices of both the parametric and unknown components are provided. The Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that the approach has some practical value.     

试论影响北宋东京规划布局的非理性因素——象天设都与堪舆学说

象天设都与堪舆学说作为非理性因素,直接影响了北宋东京城的选址、宋外城形制、宋皇宫的范围与布局,以及艮岳、玉清昭应宫、景灵宫、明堂等建筑的营建和方位,并带来了开辟城墙正北门、夷门山取土、城区外围下葬等禁忌.这些观念,是北宋皇帝宣扬"天命王权",企图国祚永存的体现.     

大型文学刊物《文聚》形式考述

抗战时期昆明的文学刊物《文聚》是西南联大学生林元主创的。《文聚》有着自己的形式特征,刊名、开本、刊期、目录、编后、出版时间和版权页等“版形”同少异多,不可“举一反三”;稿约和广告等“附载”有同有异,反映出文聚社的外部关系,不能“知一而足”;目录与正文的排列显示出《文聚》高超的编辑艺术,值得研究学习。在研究者很难见全《文聚》杂志的情况下,文后还附录了《文聚》各期的目录。