论新型城镇化大时代地方政府生态文明建设

截至2016年11月29日,国家发改委已陆续公布了3批新型城镇化建设试点名单。作为新型城镇化建设本质要求的生态文明建设的主导角色,地方政府在现实治理过程中却面临着诸多困境,如产业结构和产业布局不合理造成排污排气监督治理困难,生态绩效评估指标体系和评估主体不完善造成生态文明建设工作落实不力,地方政府“经济人”与“经纪人”双重属性使其本能地同多方主体角力,生态建设周期漫长导致政绩与任期错位等。鉴于此,必须加快产业转型、优化产业结构并加强产业布局与产群化管理,促进科技型产业与循环型产业发展,重建生态绩效考核机制,并籍以发展多中心治理模式和出台生态建设法律法规,以促进生态文明建设长效机制的形成,为国家可持续发展和决胜全面建设小康社会保驾护航。     

Centered parameterizations and dependence limitations in Markov random field models

Markov random field models incorporate terms representing local statistical dependence among variables in a discrete-index random field. Traditional parameterizations for models based on one-parameter exponential family conditional distributions contain components that would appear to reflect large-scale and small-scale model behaviors, and it is natural to attempt to match these structures with large-scale and small-scale patterns in a set of data. Traditional manners of parameterizing Markov random field models do not allow such correspondence, however. We propose an alternative centered parameterization that, while not leading to different models, allows a correspondence between model structures and data structures to be successfully accomplished. The ability to make these connections is important when incorporating covariate information into a model or if a sequence of models is fit over time to investigate and interpret possible changes in data structure. We demonstrate the improved interpretation that results from use of centered parameterizations. Centered parameterizations also lend themselves to computation of an interpretable decomposition of mean squared error, and this is demonstrated both analytically and through a simulated example. A breakdown in model behavior occurs even with centered parameterizations if dependence parameters in Markov random field models are allowed to become too large. This phenomenon is discussed and illustrated using an auto-logistic model.     

A regression approach for estimating the parameters of the covariance function of a stationary spatial random process

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the covariance function of a stationary spatial random process. In spatial statistics, there are widely used parametric forms for the covariance functions, and various methods for estimating the parameters have been proposed in the literature. We develop a method for estimating the parameters of the covariance function that is based on a regression approach. Our method utilizes pairs of observations whose distances are closest to a value h>0$h>0$ which is chosen in a way that the estimated correlation at distance h is a predetermined value. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our procedure by simulation studies and an application to a water pH data set. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms all well-known least squares-based approaches to the variogram estimation and is comparable to the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the covariance function. We also show that under a mixing condition on the random field, the proposed estimator is consistent for standard one parameter models for stationary correlation functions.     

北京城市发展与首都经济建设

紧密结合新时期北京市经济社会发展的特点,从战略高度审视首都经济建设,特别是产业布局问题,力求从北京市城市定位的特殊要求出发,充分考虑经济发展、就业和环境要求,提出产业布局合理化、科学化的规划建议.通过研究对首都经济发展的方向、重点进行重新认识,为北京市城市规划修编提供参考性依据.     

期刊参考文献著录格式的统计与分析——以湖北省期刊为例

以湖北省期刊为统计样本,分析《文后参考文献著录规则》(GB/T 7714—2005)的执行情况,针对其中存在的问题提出几点建议:人文社科类期刊要提高对参考文献著录规范的重视程度;不宜用注释代替参考文献列表;参考文献顺序编码制要优于著者-出版年制;文后列出的参考文献,在正文中必须对应标注;专业性较强的英文科技期刊可参照同专业的国际著名刊物进行参考文献著录。     

从空间聚合到价值聚变:我国文化创意产业集聚区发展的重要命题

近十年来,我国城市文化创意产业集聚区快速发展,正在成为文化创意产业的空间聚合,主要体现三大动向:一是空间规模快速扩张,二是资源要素持续注入,三是复合功能不断增强。与集聚区快速发展相伴随的是,整体影响不佳、可持续性不足、聚合深度有限等问题的存在。为此,实现从空间聚合到价值聚变的跨越是我国文化创意产业集聚区发展必须面临的重要命题。纵观国内外集聚区发展成功经验,提升根植创新力、增强意义感召力和扩大范围影响力是催化价值聚变的基本途径。在此基础上,结合北京奥林匹克公园文化创意产业集聚区特点,提出引领园区和谐、催化持续激发、撬动区域发展和倡导公共外交的价值聚变重点策略,为我国城市文化创意产业集聚区发展提供启示。     

Identifying Different Areas of Inhomogenous Mineral Subsoil: Spatial Fluctuation Approaches

We use a recently proposed fluctuation-type procedure for detecting breaks in spatial regions to distinguish between hard and soft areas of inhomogeneous mineral subsoil like additives, air pockets, and adhesion. For a proper application, some refinements of the procedure are necessary. Both simulation evidence of the refinement and the application on the subsoil yield favorable results.     

20世纪40年代中原“半拉报”现象解析--以《阵中日报》和《正义报》为例

20世纪40年代，中原地区部分报纸的主要版面代表统治阶级的立场观点，副刊却在一定程度上表达了民主进步的思想，这种副刊与正刊背道而驰的状态被称作“半拉报”。“半拉报”现象在中原两次出现，有着深厚的社会背景与历史原因。政治势力之间的角逐与力量消长，酝酿了相关文化的生存环境；作家兼报人的责任意识，打造了传播进步文化与民主诉求的阵地；历史文化的积淀融入独特的区域氛围，成就了个性鲜明的表达方式。     

Social fabric and fear of crime: Considering spatial location and time of day

Criminologists have long noted that social networks play a role in influencing residents' fear of crime, but findings vis a vis the exact nature of that role have been mixed. More social ties may be associated with less fear of crime through their role in collective action, trust, and emotional support, but also with more fear of crime because of their role in the diffusion of information on local crime patterns. In what follows, we suggest temporal and spatial distinctions in how social ties matter for fear of crime with respect to these different mechanisms. Analysis of data from a large scale egocentric network study in Southern California provides evidence for these claims.     

论当代中国学术期刊

学术期刊是开展学术交流,促进知识创新和培育学术科研人才的重要平台,对社会的文明进步具有重要推动作用。改革开放30年来,我国的学术期刊伴随科教文化事业的发展获得了迅速的发展,但是目前也面临着不少问题。主要是审稿选文缺乏健全的制度保证;办刊主体的行政化;编排规范不当导致以人取文,也导致读者看人读文;因科研评价机制不科学所致的学术腐败使学术期刊深受污染;经费缺乏明确政策规定等。要改变这种状况,实现学术期刊宗旨,必须进行全方位的配套整治：（1）加强审稿选文的制度建设;（2）实行实职主编制,扩大主编与责编的自主权;（3）改革编排规范：增加编者按（重点论文导读）与作者自述的＂课题价值＂与＂创新点＂,取消＂作者单位＂与＂作者简介＂;（4）改革科研成果评价机制,加强学术腐败惩治力度;（5）创办多家学术批评专刊,改革学术期刊评价方式;（6）明确学术期刊性质和经费来源及额度,确保经费足额到位。