各省区季度GDP数据质量评估

  国内外学者对我国GDP数据质量的质疑重点已从年度数据转到季度数据,从全国数据转向地方数据。本文通过设计一套较为系统且可操作性强的季度GDP评估指标体系,运用空间面板数据模型对各省区的季度GDP数据质量进行了实证检验。结果表明,整体来看,中国各省区季度GDP同各经济指标的匹配性较好,数据质量较高,并不存在明显的失真现象;从时间上来看,每年一、二季度的GDP存在一定程度的高估,而每年三、四季度的GDP则存在一定程度的低估,但是这种偏差在统计上不显著;分地区来看,尽管一半省区的季度GDP存在一定程度的高估,另一半省区存在一定程度的低估,但大部分省区高估或低估的程度在统计上不显著。文章进一步分析了其中的原因。     

Estimation of the Memory Parameters of the Fractionally Integrated Separable Spatial Autoregressive (FISSAR(1, 1)) Model: A Simulation Study

In this article, we implement the Regression Method for estimating (d ₁, d ₂) of the FISSAR(1, 1) model. It is also possible to estimate d ₁ and d ₂ by Whittle's method. We also compute the estimated bias, standard error, and root mean square error by a simulation study. A comparison was made between the Regression Method of estimating d ₁ and d ₂ to that of the Whittle's method. It was found in this simulation study that the Regression Method of estimation was better when compare with the Whittle's estimator, in the sense that it had smaller root mean square errors (RMSE) values.     

Detection of Multiple Outbreaks Using Spatio-Temporal EWMA-Ordered Statistics

Spatio-temporal surveillance methods for detecting outbreaks of disease are fairly common in the literature with the scan statistic setting the benchmark. If the shape and size of the outbreaks are known in advance, then the scan approach can be designed to efficiently detect these, however, this is seldom true. Therefore we want to devise plans that are efficient at detecting a number of outbreaks that vary in size and shape. This paper examines plans which use the exponential weighted moving average statistic to build temporal memory into plans and tries to develop robust plans for detecting outbreaks of unknown shapes and sizes.     

Asymptotic Results for Spatial ARMA Models

Causal quadrantal-type spatial ARMA(p, q) models with independent and identically distributed innovations are considered. In order to select the orders (p, q) of these models and estimate their autoregressive parameters, estimators of the autoregressive coefficients, derived from the extended Yule–Walker equations are defined. Consistency and asymptotic normality are obtained for these estimators. Then, spatial ARMA model identification is considered and simulation study is given.     

Spatial Matching of Multiple Configurations of Points with a Bioinformatics Application

In this article, we present a general model to deal with the problem of matching multiple objects or configurations of points from a Bayesian point of view. We study both labeled and non labeled cases. Our model generalizes, in terms of non singular affine transformations and multiple configurations, previous two-terms matching models. As a practical application in Bioinformatics, we consider data from a microarray experiment of gorilla, bonobo, and human-cultured fibroblasts. We find out the matchings and the best affine transformation between the projections of genes on a two-dimensional space, obtained by a multidimensional scaling technique.     

Asymptotic Distributions of Quasi‐Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Autoregressive Models

This paper investigates asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator for the spatial autoregressive model. The rates of convergence of those estimators may depend on some general features of the spatial weights matrix of the model. It is important to make the distinction with different spatial scenarios. Under the scenario that each unit will be influenced by only a few neighboring units, the estimators may have ‐rate of convergence and be asymptotically normal. When each unit can be influenced by many neighbors, irregularity of the information matrix may occur and various components of the estimators may have different rates of convergence.     

数字经济、空间效应与全要素生产率

当前,数字经济蓬勃发展,已成为经济增长的新动能。本文从数字产业化与产业数字化 两个维度,采用主成分分析法构建了数字经济发展水平的指标体系,并利用2004-2017年我国省际面板 数据,在克服内生性问题的基础上,实证分析了数字经济发展对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,数字 经济发展显著促进了全要素生产率的提升。但较之高生产率地区和东部地区,数字经济发展对低生产率地区和中西部地区全要素生产率的提升作用更大。就机制而言,人力资本投资与产业结构升级是数 字经济影响全要素生产率的两个渠道。进一步的空间计量分析表明,数字经济发展不仅会提升本地区 的全要素生产率,还存在显著的空间溢出效应,有助于提升邻近地区的全要素生产率。本文的研究为评估数字经济发展的影响效果提供了数据支撑和分析视角,也为探寻全要素生产率的提升路径提供了政策参考。     

秦汉邺城钩沉

自齐桓公筑邺,邺址未变,其地即今古邺三台遗址。秦汉时期,邺在地理上对于历史的发展起了重要影响。秦军据此攻赵,汉高于此置魏郡,东汉灵帝时为冀州治,曹操于此建魏都,邺成为北方中心城市。袁绍初治州城,讲究规整,奠定了邺内城外郭的基本格局。曹操在此基础上进一步完善,形成了主要建筑沿中轴线左右对称、街区呈棋盘状的邺城城制。     

Reexamining the ethnic hierarchy of locational attainment: Evidence from Los Angeles

Because of a lack of data, the locational attainment literature has not incorporated documentation status into models examining group differences in neighborhood quality. I fill this void by using the Los Angeles Family and Neighborhood Survey, which permits the identification of undocumented respondents, allowing a reexamination of the ethnic structure of locational attainment in this important immigrant-receiving city. Results first suggest that while undocumented Latinos live in the poorest quality communities, blacks live in neighborhoods that are similar to native-born Latinos and better than foreign-born Asians and Latinos. Second, the effects of education are strongest for blacks, allowing the highly educated an opportunity to reside in communities that are of better quality than educated Latinos and Asians. Thus, undocumented Latinos replace blacks at the bottom of the locational attainment hierarchy, allowing educated blacks in Los Angeles to reside in better neighborhoods than blacks in the nation at large.