Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia

We document an evolving pattern in the slope of the Phillips curve in Australia at different frequencies under different monetary policy regimes and labor market regulations. Our estimation strategy relies on the spectral analysis that includes the gain and phase spectrum but is also complemented by the time domain estimation. We document an upward sloping medium-run Phillips curve in the pre-1977 period, a downward sloping long-run Phillips curve from 1977 to 1993, and a flattened Phillips curve from 1993 onwards. Lag and lead relationship between inflation and unemployment varies across periods and frequencies. The Phillips curve at business-cycle frequencies is downward sloping in all periods. We explain our results in terms of the monetary targeting in 1976 and the inflation targeting in 1993 by the RBA, respectively, and important changes in labor relations from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s.     

Fourier analysis of irregularly spaced data on Rd

Summary.  The purpose of the paper is to propose a frequency domain approach for irregularly spaced data on R ^d . We extend the original definition of a periodogram for time series to that for irregularly spaced data and define non-parametric and parametric spectral density estimators in a way that is similar to the classical approach. Introduction of the mixed asymptotics, which are one of the asymptotics for irregularly spaced data, makes it possible to provide asymptotic theories to the spectral estimators. The asymptotic result for the parametric estimator is regarded as a natural extension of the classical result for regularly spaced data to that for irregularly spaced data. Empirical studies are also included to illustrate the frequency domain approach in comparisons with the existing spatial and frequency domain approaches.     

烟台市实现农村经济二次飞跃的潜力与对策

探讨了烟台市实现农村经济二次飞跃的六大潜力点,提出了本市选择经济增长点依据的原则,并讨论了利用潜力点实现经济目标的途径     

Spectral and circulant approximations to the likelihood for stationary Gaussian random fields

Consider a Gaussian random field model on , observed on a rectangular region. Suppose it is desired to estimate a set of parameters in the covariance function. Spectral and circulant approximations to the likelihood are often used to facilitate estimation of the parameters. The purpose of the paper is to give a careful treatment of the quality of these approximations. A spectral approximation for the likelihood was given by Guyon (Biometrika 69 (1982) 95–105) but without proof. The results given here generalize those of Guyon, and fill in the details of the proof. In addition some matrix results are derived which may be of independent interest. Applications are made to Fisher information and bias calculations for maximum likelihood estimates.     

General upper bound for the number of blocks having a given number of treatments common with a given block

The purpose of this paper is systematically to derive the general upper bound for the number of blocks having a given number of treatments common with a given block of certain incomplete block designs. The approach adopted here is based on the spectral decomposition of N′N for the incidence matrix N of a design, where N' is the transpose of the matrix N. This approach will lead us to upper bounds for incomplete block designs, in particular for a large number of partially balanced incomplete block (PBIB) designs, which are not covered with the standard approach (Shah 1964, 1966), Kapadia (1966)) of using well known relations between blocks of the designs and their association schemes. Several results concerning block structure of block designs are also derived from the main theorem. Finally, further generalizations of the main theorem are discussed with some illustrations.     

On Efficient AR Spectral Estimation for Long-Range Predictions

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the concept of asymptotic efficiency from the frequency domain point of view making use of the direct method for multiple prediction. In particular, it is shown that with the use of a new autoregressive model selection at each prediction time h, the asymptotic lower bound of the integrated relative squared error of an AR spectral estimate is attained by the order selected for multistep prediction by the AIC selection procedure Akaike (1973 Akaike , H. ( 1973 ). Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle . In Petrov , B. N. , Csaki , F. eds. Proc. 2nd Int. Symp. on Information Theory. Budapest : Akademia Kiado , 267 – 281 . [Google Scholar]) and its alike when the underlying process is a non zero mean infinite order not necessarily Gaussian AR process.     

Geostatistical Analysis Through Spectral Techniques: Some Words of Caution

Tapering is a technique proposed in order to avoid the so-called edge-effects in spectral estimation. Recent literature has emphasised the importance of tapering for spectral methods applied to the analysis of spatial dependence. In this work we show, through applications and an extensive simulation study, that tapering can be very dangerous if it is not used with caution. An interesting aspect of spectral estimation arises in the presence of a nugget effect in the spatial structure.     

Time Series Properties of the Class of Generalized First-Order Autoregressive Processes with Moving Average Errors

A new class of time series models known as Generalized Autoregressive of order one with first-order moving average errors has been introduced in order to reveal some hidden features of certain time series data. The variance and autocovariance of the process is derived in order to study the behaviour of the process. It is shown that in special cases these new results reduce to the standard ARMA results. Estimation of parameters based on the Whittle procedure is discussed. We illustrate the use of this class of model by using two examples.     

市场经济的伦理奠基与信任拓展 --超越主流经济学分析框架

文章试图超越“新古典经济学”的传统分析框架,研究中国转型时期的伦理困境和道德秩序建构。综合运用了经济学、社会学、法学和宗教学的相关理论,系统阐述道德生成与演进的“多元自发秩序观”,同时,着眼于中国由传统的乡土社会向市场化的契约社会的演变过程,分析这个过程中市场半径和交易范围的扩展,并探讨这个过程中诚信作为价值观念的变化以及可能出现的“道德失序”状态。最后分析了贫困化、社会分层和选择机会的严重不均衡对转型时期社会成员伦理行为的深刻影响。     

某些解析函数的星形半径

设f(z)=((α γ)/z~γCintegral from n=1 to z(f(t)~(t(γ-1)dt)))~(1/a)∈S*(ρ),α≥0,γ≥0,1>ρ≥0。本文找到园盘,使f(z)在该圆盘内是l(0≤l<1)级星函数。结果是准确的,推广了[2]的结论。