PROPERTIES OF THE MINIMUM POINT OF AN UNBALANCED TWO-SIDED RANDOM WALK

In this paper, properties of minimum point of a unbalanced two-sided random walk are investigated. Under the condition that the parameters at both sides tend to zero at the same order, probabilities that the minimum point is on which side, and the second order expansions for the first two moments of the minimum point are obtained. Applications of these results are very promising. First, they can be used to study the properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the change point in the large sample case; second, they can be used to study inference problems after CUSUM test.     

我国行业分类与国际标准行业分类的比较研究

 本文通过对我国行业分类和国际标准行业分类两项分类标准最新版本的比较,对两项分类的基本构成、应用原则、门类和大类的条目结构以及对照转换等方面的情况进行了比较分析研究。详细解析了在若干行业领域中,二者存在典型差异的情况。最后,对我国的行业分类的科学性和国际可比性做出了分析评价,对如何进一步提升分类水平提出了改进意见,另外还提出了未来修订的思路和方法等建议。     

Determining Optimal Number of Samples for Constructing Multivariate Control Charts

Normally, an average run length (ARL) is used as a measure for evaluating the detecting performance of a multivariate control chart. This has a direct impact on the false alarm cost in Phase II. In this article, we first conduct a simulation study to calculate both in-control and out-of-control ARLs under various combinations of process shifts and number of samples. Then, a trade-off analysis between sampling inspection and false alarm costs is performed. Both the simulation results and trade-off analysis suggest that the optimal number of samples for constructing a multivariate control chart in Phase I can be determined.     

Standard Exponential Cure Rate Model with Informative Censoring

In this article, we consider the standard cure rate model proposed by Boag (1949 Boag , J. W. ( 1949 ). Maximum likelihood estimates of the proportion of patients cured by cancer therapy . J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 11 : 15 – 53 . [Google Scholar]) and Berkson and Gage (1952 Berkson , J. , Gage , R. ( 1952 ). Survival curve for cancer patients following treatment . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 47 : 501 – 515 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We present a new definition of informative censoring similar to Lawless (1982 Lawless , J. F. ( 1982 ). Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data . New York : Wiley .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and the corresponding likelihood function. Under informative censoring, we obtain the Fisher information matrix of the exponential standard cure rate model. We verify, with simulated data, the impact caused by informative censoring in the coverage probabilities and in the lengths of asymptotic confidence intervals of the parameters of interest. An example with real data is analyzed.     

Extensions of Samuelson's Inequality

In this note we obtain upper and lower bounds for the kth largest number in a set of real numbers in terms of their mean and standard deviation. For each inequality necessary and sufficient conditions for equality are given.     

Correlation,Regression Lines,and Moments of Inertia

The R language, a freely available environment for statistical computing and graphics is widely used in many fields. This “expert-friendly” system has a powerful command language and programming environment, combined with an active user community. We discuss how R is ideal as a platform to support experimentation in mathematical statistics, both at the undergraduate and graduate levels. Using a series of case studies and activities, we describe how R can be used in a mathematical statistics course as a toolbox for experimentation. Examples include the calculation of a running average, maximization of a nonlinear function, resampling of a statistic, simple Bayesian modeling, sampling from multivariate normal, and estimation of power. These activities, often requiring only a few dozen lines of code, offer students the opportunity to explore statistical concepts and experiment. In addition, they provide an introduction to the framework and idioms available in this rich environment.     

发展干预项目的有效性评估：功能定位与操作难题

发展干预项目的评估是确定发展目标、发展效率、干预影响以及可持续性同项目实施之间的相关性的过程。它至少包含两方面的现实功能,学术层面上,是回应当前知识界对于发展项目是否真正有效的学术争论的最直接手段;实践层面上,能够对特定发展项目的持续或中止进行合法化描述。发展干预是由多元因素长期共同作用下产生的改变,要展示其项目多大程度上推动了发展变迁,是一件十分困难的事情,其操作性难题主要包括：复杂社会系统中干预效果的归因偏差议题;阶段性影响与最终效果的关系平衡议题;普遍性与情景化的评估方法的采用偏向议题;项目评估的时间节点的动态选择议题。操作性难题归结成最重要的一点,其实就在于如何判断发展干预行动是否真正推动了减贫发展与社会变迁。     

论现代战争与完善21世纪战争法规

现代战争对生态安全的破坏是十分严重的,特别是一些新式武器,如核武器、生物武器、化学武器等具有强大的杀伤力和巨大的破坏力。还有一些武器正在实验或试制中,如基因武器、巨浪武器等,对生态安全更具有破坏作用。本文论述新式武器对生态安全的巨大破坏,提出完善21世纪战争法规则,追究主要战犯的战争罪、种族灭绝罪、破坏生态安全罪。作者对修改战争法规则提出八点建议和构想。     

海岛妇女民间信仰活动的调查与思考

近年来,随着宗教自由政策的落实和文化多元化的发展,我国各地民间信仰的存在环境不断宽松,民间信仰活动也日趋活跃。浙江舟山地区民间信仰活动的发展也十分迅速,妇女已成为民间信仰活动的主体,其信仰活动的影响力已渗透到妇女生活的各个方面,在女性作出决策、进行人际交往和提高自身话语权等方面,都发挥着作用。海岛妇女民间信仰在现阶段的存在和活跃,虽然有一定的必然性和合理性,但作为较低级的一种文化现象,其负面效应也是相当明显的。关注海岛妇女的信仰活动状况,既有助于客观地认识妇女所面临的处境,也有利于相关部门做好对民间信仰的引导管理工作,实现民间信仰与社会主义主流价值观的协谐。     

现行企业所得税纳税筹划策略探微

为落实河北省委七届六次全会精神,省政府制定了《关于进一步加强民营经济发展的意见》。从目前看,我市民营经济在"十一五"期间有了长足发展,为全市经济和社会发展做出了重要贡献。要使民营经济大发展、快发展,必须进一步优化民营经济发展环境,全面落实民营经济优惠政策,引导民营经济上档升级,改善民营经济管理,加强民营队伍自身建设。