Communication in Statistics-Theory and methods improved GQL estimation method for the generalised BINMA(1) model

In a recent research, the quasi-likelihood estimation methodology was developed to estimate the regression effects in the Generalized BINMA(1) (GBINMA(1)) process. The method provides consistent parameter estimates but, in the intermediate computations, moment estimating equations were used to estimate the serial- and cross-correlation parameters. This procedure may not result optimal parameter estimates, in particular, for the regression effects. This paper provides an alternative simpler GBINMA(1) process based on multivariate thinning properties where the main effects are estimated via a robust generalized quasi-likelihood (GQL) estimation approach. The two techniques are compared through some simulation experiments. A real-life data application is studied.     

MSE performance of the weighted average estimators consisting of shrinkage estimators when each individual regression coefficient is estimated

In this paper, we analytically derive the exact formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of two weighted average (WA) estimators for each individual regression coefficient. Further, we execute numerical evaluations to investigate small sample properties of the WA estimators, and compare the MSE performance of the WA estimators with the other shrinkage estimators and the usual OLS estimator. Our numerical results show that (1) the WA estimators have smaller MSE than the other shrinkage estimators and the OLS estimator over a wide region of parameter space; (2) the range where the relative MSE of the WA estimator is smaller than that of the OLS estimator gets narrower as the number of explanatory variables k increases.     

一种简单有效的二项分布比例参数似然比置信区间的求法

对二项分布比例参数p的似然比置信区间,提出一种简便求解方法。在平均覆盖率、平均区间长度及区间长度的95%置信区间准则下与WScore、Plus4、Jeffreys置信区间进行模拟比较。试验表明,在二项分布b(n,p)的参数n≥20且p∈(0.1,0.9)时,该方法获取的似然比置信区间性能优良。当点估计p值不是接近于0或1且n≥20时,推荐使用本方法获取p的置信区间。     

Generally weighted moving average control charts with fast initial response features

The generally weighted moving average (GWMA) control chart is an extension model of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. Recently, some approaches have been proposed to modify EWMA charts with fast initial response (FIR) features. We introduce these approaches in GWMA-type charts. Via simulation, various control schemes are designed and then their average run lengths are computed and compared. Based on the overall performance, it is showed that the DGWMA chart is the best choice especially when the shift is moderate, and the GWMA charts provided with additional FIR feature have a good performance only in detecting large shifts during the initial stage.     

新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的演变规律及分布特征分析

本文根据《新疆辉煌50年》及三次人口普查数据,分析了新疆维吾尔自治区历年来死亡率、死亡人数、死亡率模式、平均预期寿命等指标的演变过程及分布特征,试图揭示新疆维吾尔自治区死亡水平的内在变动规律,为计划生育及相关政府部门制定政策提供依据。     

New V control chart for the Maxwell distribution

Control charts have been popularly used as a user-friendly yet technically sophisticated tool to monitor whether a process is in statistical control or not. These charts are basically constructed under the normality assumption. But in many practical situations in real life this normality assumption may be violated. One such non-normal situation is to monitor the process variability from a skewed parent distribution where we propose the use of a Maxwell control chart. We introduce a pivotal quantity for the scale parameter of the Maxwell distribution which follows a gamma distribution. Probability limits and L-sigma limits are studied along with performance measure based on average run length and power curve. To avoid the complexity of future calculations for practitioners, factors for constructing control chart for monitoring the Maxwell parameter are given for different sample sizes and for different false alarm rate. We also provide simulated data to illustrate the Maxwell control chart. Finally, a real life example has been given to show the importance of such a control chart.     

Monitoring the coefficient of variation using a variable sample size and sampling interval control chart

This article proposes a CV chart by using the variable sample size and sampling interval (VSSI) feature to improve the performance of the basic CV chart, for detecting small and moderate shifts in the CV. The proposed VSSI CV chart is designed by allowing the sample size and the sampling interval to vary. The VSSI CV chart's statistical performance is measured by using the average time to signal (ATS) and expected average time to signal (EATS) criteria and is compared with that of existing CV charts. The Markov chain approach is employed in the design of the chart.     

坚持劳动价值论与价值转形研究

劳动价值论是整个马克思主义经济学体系的基础,循着抽象上升到具体的研究思路,价值的简单形态必然要向经济现实逼近,即价值要向生产价格的转化,而转换过程中两个总计方程是否相等,则一直是马克思主义经济学中最具争议的问题,这绝不仅仅是一个技术问题,而是关系到马克思主义经济学理论体系的根本所在。它既解决了价值规律和生产价格规律之间的矛盾,也说明了产品价值以生产价格形式在全社会形成的分配关系。因此,研究转形问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文将马克思对转形问题的阐述细化为若干利润平均化周期,并通过对平均利润率的分析,指出由于部分剩余价值没有参加利润平均化过程,所以出现了剩余价值总额不等于利润总额的现象,但是这并不能改变价值向生产价格的转化的真实存在,也不与劳动价值论矛盾。     

中国地方高校生均经费不均衡性研究

当前,地方普通高校是中国高等教育的主体,但各地地方普通高等学校财政性投资差异明显。生均经费是衡量教育投入增长的重要指标,通过对省际间地方高等学校生均预算内教育经费、分地区地方院校生均预算内教育经费水平和各省区财政支持度三个方面进行比较,能够对各地区高等教育生均经费不均衡的现状及成因有更科学、清晰的认识。     

投入产出法的就业量预测评价

根据投入产出分析方法,引用1992—2001年中国GDP与就业量的实际值,对相应年份的就业量进行预测,然后将预测值与实际发生的就业量增加值进行比较,统计分析,以检验该方法对中国就业量预测的准确性。但检验结果表明,该方法预测的结果与中国实际发生的就业量差距很大,显然该方法存在严重缺陷,即使可以不被抛弃,也必须对其进行修正。