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31.
This study extends the generally weighted moving average (GWMA) control chart by imitating the double exponentially weighted moving average (DEWMA) technique. The proposed chart is called the double generally weighted moving average (DGWMA) control chart. Simulation is employed to evaluate the average run length characteristics of the GWMA, DEWMA and DGWMA control charts. An extensive comparison of these control charts reveals that the DGWMA control chart with time-varying control limits is more sensitive than the GWMA and the DEWMA control charts for detecting medium shifts in the mean of a process when the shifts are between 0.5 and 1.5 standard deviations. Additionally, the GWMA control chart performs better when the mean shifts are below the 0.5 standard deviation, and the DEWMA control performs better when the mean shifts are above the 1.5 standard deviation. The design of the DGWMA control chart is also discussed. 相似文献
32.
The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive performance of the moving average (MA) trading rule and find out the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns. Data from the General Index of the Athens Stock Exchange, from the Standard and Poor-500 Index of the New York Stock Exchange and from the Austrian Traded Index of the Vienna Stock Exchange are filtered by linear filters so as the resulting simulated ‘returns’ exhibit no serial correlation. Applying MA trading rules to both the original and the simulated indices and using a new statistical testing procedure that takes into account the sensitivity of the performance of the trading rule as a function of the length of the MA it is found that the predictive performance of the trading rule is clearly weakened when applied to the simulated indices indicating that a substantial part of the rule's predictive performance is due to the exploitation of linear dependencies in stock returns. This weakening is uneven; in general the shorter the MA length the more pronounced the attenuation. 相似文献
33.
This article provides an expository account of the multivariate autoregressive moving average models and proposes an extended sample cross-correlation approach for practical model identification. An iterative model building procedure for applying these models to real data is discussed and demonstrated by analyzing the 5-series U.S. Hog Data. 相似文献
34.
The authors establish the joint distribution of the sum X and the maximum Y of IID exponential random variables. They derive exact formuli describing the random vector (X, Y), including its joint PDF, CDF, and other characteristics; marginal and conditional distributions; moments and related parameters; and stochastic representations leading to further properties of infinite divisibility and self-decomposability. The authors also discuss parameter estimation and include an example from climatology that illustrates the modeling potential of this new bivariate model. 相似文献
35.
The problem of sample size determination in the context of Bayesian analysis is considered. For the familiar and practically important parameter of a geometric distribution with a beta prior, three different Bayesian approaches based on the highest posterior density intervals are discussed. A computer program handles all computational complexities and is available upon request. 相似文献
36.
Athanasios C. Rakitzis 《Journal of applied statistics》2011,38(12):2839-2858
The most common charting procedure used for monitoring the variance of the distribution of a quality characteristic is the S control chart. As a Shewhart-type control chart, it is relatively insensitive in the quick detection of small and moderate shifts in process variance. The performance of the S chart can be improved by supplementing it with runs rules or by varying the sample size and the sampling interval. In this work, we introduce and study one-sided adaptive S control charts, supplemented or not with one powerful runs rule, for detecting increases or decreases in process variation. The properties of the proposed control schemes are obtained by using a Markov chain approach. Furthermore, a practical guidance for the choice of the most suitable control scheme is also provided. 相似文献
37.
刘瑞金 《山东理工大学学报(社会科学版)》1994,(2)
本文借助自由粒子的量子能态分布理论,利用3n维空间球体模型,实现了对理想气体(N,V,E)系统微态数的计算,在此基础上,给出了理想气体热力学量的统计结果。 相似文献
38.
曹国奇 《西南大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,28(1)
价值向生产价格的转型是按宏观上的一个分配规律———平均化规律进行的。生产任何商品所创造的价值均要交给社会 ,由社会按平均法则在各部门间分配 ,分配后各商品得到的价值才能形成其价格。由于平均分配的过程是个动态的过程 ,故而传统的静态分析法在此失效。 相似文献
39.
Sastry G. Pantula 《商业与经济统计学杂志》2013,31(1):63-71
Several test criteria are available for testing the hypothesis that the autoregressive polynomial of an autoregressive moving average process has a single unit root. Schwert (1989), using a Monte Carlo study, investigated the performance of some of the available test criteria. He concluded that the actual levels of the test criteria considered in his study are far from the specified levels when the moving average polynomial also has a root close to 1. This article studies the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistics for testing p = 1 in the model Yt = pY t-1 + e t – 0e t-1 as 0 approaches 1. It is shown that the test statistics differ from one another in their asymptotic properties depending on the rate at which 0 converges to 1. 相似文献
40.
A method for combining forecasts may or may not account for dependence and differing precision among forecasts. In this article we test a variety of such methods in the context of combining forecasts of GNP from four major econometric models. The methods include one in which forecasting errors are jointly normally distributed and several variants of this model as well as some simpler procedures and a Bayesian approach with a prior distribution based on exchangeability of forecasters. The results indicate that a simple average, the normal model with an independence assumption, and the Bayesian model perform better than the other approaches that are studied here. 相似文献