A Multivariate Adaptive Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart

A multivariate extension of the adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (AEWMA) control chart is proposed. The new multivariate scheme can detect small and large shifts in the process mean vector effectively. The proposed scheme can be viewed as a smooth combination of a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) chart and a Shewhart χ²-chart. The optimal design of the proposed chart is given according to a pre-specified in-control average run length and two shift sizes; a small and large shift each measured in terms of the non centrality parameter. The signal resistance of the newly proposed multivariate chart is also given. Comparisons among the new chart, the MEWMA chart, and the combined Shewhart-MEWMA (S-MEWMA) chart in terms of the standard and worst-case average run length profiles are presented. In addition, the three charts are compared with respect to their worst-case signal resistance values. The proposed chart gives somewhat better worst-case ARL and signal resistance values than the competing charts. It also gives better standard ARL performance especially for moderate and large shifts. The effectiveness of our proposed chart is illustrated through an example with simulated data set.     

Sliced Average Variance Estimation for Censored Data

We consider a nonlinear censored regression problem with a vector of predictors. With censoring, high-dimensional regression analysis becomes much more complicated. Since censoring can cause severe bias in estimation, modification to adjust such bias is needed to be made. Based on the weight adjustment, we develop the modification of sliced average variance estimation for estimating the lifetime central subspace without requiring a prespecified parametric model. Our proposed method preserves as much regression information as possible. Simulation results are reported and comparisons are made with the sliced inverse regression of Li et al. (1999 Li , K. C. , Wang , J. L. , Chen , C. H. ( 1999 ). Dimension reduction for censored regression data . Ann. Statist. 27 : 1 – 23 . [Google Scholar]).     

Conditional Information in Projections of Gaussian Vectors

Conditional information measures the information in a sample for an interest parameter in the presence of nuisance parameter. In the context of Gaussian likelihoods this paper first derives conditions under which a projection of the data may reduce conditional information to zero. These are then applied in the context of time series regressions, and inference on a covariance parameter, such as with either autoregressive or moving average errors. It is shown that regressing out very common regressors, such as a linear trend or dummy variable, can imply that conditional information is zero in the case of non-stationary autoregressions or non-invertible moving averages, respectively.     

Normal Deviation and Poisson Approximation of a Security Market by the Geometric Markov Renewal Processes

We consider the geometric Markov renewal processes (GMRP) as a model for a security market. Normal deviations of the geometric Markov renewal processes for ergodic averaging and double averaging schemes are derived. We introduce Poisson averaging scheme for the geometric Markov renewal processes. European call option pricing formulas for GMRP are presented.     

Asymptotically Optimal Nonparametric Empirical Bayes Via Predictive Recursion

An empirical Bayes problem has an unknown prior to be estimated from data. The predictive recursion (PR) algorithm provides fast nonparametric estimation of mixing distributions and is ideally suited for empirical Bayes applications. This article presents a general notion of empirical Bayes asymptotic optimality, and it is shown that PR-based procedures satisfy this property under certain conditions. As an application, the problem of in-season prediction of baseball batting averages is considered. There the PR-based empirical Bayes rule performs well in terms of prediction error and ability to capture the distribution of the latent features.     

Two new estimators of entropy for testing normality

ABSTRACT

We present two new estimators for estimating the entropy of absolutely continuous random variables. Some properties of them are considered, specifically consistency of the first is proved. The introduced estimators are compared with the existing entropy estimators. Also, we propose two new tests for normality based on the introduced entropy estimators and compare their powers with the powers of other tests for normality. The results show that the proposed estimators and test statistics perform very well in estimating entropy and testing normality. A real example is presented and analyzed.     

Bayesian inferences and forecasts with moving averages processes

This paper will develop Bayesian inferential and forecasting techniques which can be used with any moving average process. By employing the conditional likelihood function, at-approximation to the predictive distribution and the marginal posterior distribution of the moving average parameters is developed. Several examples demonstrate posterior and predictive inferences.     

Estimating multivariate autoregressive moving average models by fitting long autoregressions

Some simple methods for the estimation of mixed multivariate autoregressive moving average time series models are introduced. The methods require the fitting of a long autoregression to the data and the computation of consistent initial estimates for the parameters of the model. After these preliminaries the estimators of the paper are obtained by applying weighted least squares to a multivariate auxiliary regression model. Two types of weight matrices are considered. Both of them yield estimators which are strongly consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The first estimators are also asymptotically efficient while the second ones are not fully efficient but computationally simple. A simulation study is performed to illustrate the behaviour of the estimators in finite samples.     

Derivation of the theoretical autocovariance and autocorrelation function of autoregessive moving average processes

Closed form expressions for the theoretical autocovariance and autocorrelation function of mixed autoregressive moving average processes are presented. The results provide insight into the construction of autocovariances and autocorrelatians and are useful in theoretical analysis, model identification as well as in implementing maximum likelihood estimation algorithms.     

On the choice of precedence tests

The best precedence test (BPT) is derived for testing the hypothesis that the lifetimes of two types of items on test have the same distribution. The test has maximum power in the class of the Lehmann type of alternatives F - 1 - (1-G) , A > 1, where F and G are probability distributions of the lifetimes of two types of items on test. This class includes exponential distributions, the Weibull distribution differing only in scale and distributions with proportional hazard rates. Exact power of the BPT is compared with other nonparametrie and parametric tests. The test may terminate before all the lifetimes of the items on test are recorded. In comparing with competing tests of equal size, the power functions are similar but a considerable number of items can be saved and the time on test can be reduced by using the BPT