新“韬光养晦”时代中国外交的挑战与应对策略

邓小平同志在上世纪八十年代末九十年代初,分析当时的国际形势与国内局势,确定了"韬光养晦,有所作为"战略方针,此后三十年间,中央政府在制定外交政策的过程中都严格遵循这一方针。近年来,随着中国综合国力的提升,加之"美国重回亚太战略"、"南海争端"、"中日钓鱼岛争端"等国际矛盾的不断升级,越来越多的人质疑"韬光养晦"的政策是不是应该终结了。文章研究了近两年来中国外交所面临的挑战,并分析在新时期中国政府如何在原有"韬光养晦"的指导方针基础上能够进一步"有所作为",从而应对这些挑战。     

Choosing Family: Meaning and Membership in the Lesbian Family of Choice

SUMMARY

This conceptual/theoretical article uses the psychodynamic Self Psychology model for the development of a vital, harmonious, and cohesive self to describe and understand the psychological importance of family for lesbian women. How can a healthy lesbian self be developed, nurtured, and maintained in an oppressive sexist and homophobic world? Family relationships are shown to fulfill the three fundamental psychological functions that sustain the lesbian self. In the absence of genetic and/or legal criteria, the basis on which someone is considered “family” is explored.     

The Privatization of Social Services from Public to Sectarian

ABSTRACT

This article explores the privatization of social services from public to sectarian points of view while examining the implications of the Charitable Choice movement on the gay and lesbian community. The history of this movement is explored from a developmental perspective outlining the socioeconomic makeup of gays and lesbians, the societal perceptions and mythology of the economic status of homosexuals, and actual figures related to the number of gays and lesbians who rely on publicly supported social service providers. The article explores the history as well as the positive and negative aspects this type of privatization movement involves. Finally, a comprehensive assessment of the effects of this movement on the gay and lesbian community is presented and future recommendations will be made.     

从美国亚太战略看云南省桥头堡建设中的意识形态安全问题

美国“重返亚太”后,把在亚太地区的全面参与作为维护其国家利益和霸主地位的全球战略。以东南亚为通道,美国通过军事、经济、外交、文化等多种形式对中国进行意识形态渗透,制造中国威胁论,遏制中国崛起和削弱中国对东南亚国家的影响。因此,云南省在桥头堡建设中要高度重视国家的意识形态安全问题,正确认识经济发展与政治认同的关系,关注宗教渗透问题,自觉传播和维护中国和平发展的形象。可通过加快民族地区经济发展、加强文化建设、引导宗教与社会主义建设相适应、落实党的群众路线等策略来多途径保障云南桥头堡建设中的意识形态安全。     

Beyond Pensions: A Radical Systems-Based Transformation of Present-Future Choice

Aging populations worldwide, fiscal deficits, growing sovereign debt, and slowing economies have combined to create and exacerbate what is widely known as the “pension crisis”, characterized by poverty among the elderly substantially due to inadequate retirement income. We argue that the roots of the crisis go much deeper than “pensions”, and involve a long-term secular shift from saving and capital formation to consumption, in the West. Cosmetic “solutions” to the pension crisis, such as delaying the retirement age, are ineffective. The “pension crisis” label itself impedes clear thinking about developing an effective and affordable solution. The core of the problem is the fact that present-future choice tilted to “present”, in the West, for decades. Higher saving, over a longer time horizon, invested at higher average returns, is the ultimate goal, and only one that offers true long-term transformative change. We propose an original, radical, systemic solution, based on an evolutionary social transformation¹1 ‘Evolution has achieved an extraordinary record of design, yet has taken an extremely long period of time to do so’?…?‘The exponentially quickening pace of the evolution of human-created technology, which picked up the pace from the evolution of life-forms’. (Kurzweil, 1999 Kurzweil, R. 1999. The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking. [Google Scholar]) of present-future choice toward increased saving; a proposal that addresses the roots of the pension crisis, not just the symptoms.²2 This paper is based in part on a longer study, Gerstenhaber et al., 2015 Gerstenhaber, M., Maital, S. & Buchnik, T. 2015. The Carob Tree: A Radical Evolutionary Systemic Solution to the Pension Crisis. Haifa, Israel: S. Neaman Institute, Technion. [Google Scholar]; an earlier version of the pension reform proposal outlined below can be found in Passig and Gerstenhaber (2014) Passig, D. & Gerstenhaber, M. 2014. A Possible Pension-savings Paradigm for a Sustainable Future: A Developed Country Case Study (UK). Journal of Organisational Transformation & Social Change, 11(3): 207–229. doi: 10.1179/1477963314Z.00000000030[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar] and Gerstenhaber (2009) Gerstenhaber, M. 2009. Have You Ever Seen a Retired Tiger in the Jungle? Eradicating Pensioner Poverty: A Manifesto for Democratic and Responsible Capitalism. London: Ruscombe Press. [Google Scholar]. We contend that an effective pension allocation and accumulation system is a stable force for economic growth over time — but only when these significant capital investments are made directly in the real economy and take account of appropriate technological innovation. At the moment the bulk of global investment capital in the West is directed to short-term speculative activity in various financial markets, opportunistically taking advantage of historically low borrowing rates. We provide a macroeconomic simulation of our proposal, should it be adopted, comparing no-change and radical-change scenarios for the Israel economy, and urge scholars to carry out similar projections and analyses for individual OECD countries. We next show how an increase in national saving and capital formation can contribute to “rebalancing” the global economy, between low-saving Western nations and high-saving Asian ones. Finally, we outline our “four pillar” radical proposal, which leverages persistent long-run saving and investment, and illustrate its impact with some macroeconomic projections for Israel, comparing two scenarios, one with low national saving, the second with increased national saving. An achievable increase in the national saving rate, implemented through the tax system and accompanied by intelligent capital formation, can have enormous impact, it is shown, not only on elderly poverty but on society as a whole. In our plan, lower consumption demand through higher savings, is offset by higher capital formation, which has a larger employment and GDP multiplier.     

A Dynamic Model of Welfare Reform

A dynamic structural model of labor supply, welfare participation, and food stamp participation is estimated using the 1992, 1993, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Details of various policies including welfare time limits, work requirements, and Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) are incorporated formally in the budget constraint. Policy simulations reveal that the economy accounts for half of the increase in the labor supply of female heads of family between 1992 and 1999. A time limit results in a larger efficiency gain than a work requirement or a direct reduction in welfare benefits. A reform package can lead to both a reduction in the government expenditure and an improvement in utility. The EITC expansion results in a substantial efficiency gain among individuals with the lowest expected wage. These individuals are almost unaffected by the economic expansion, but their income and utility increase significantly under the reform package.     

An Enhanced Concave Program Relaxation for Choice Network Revenue Management

The network choice revenue management problem models customers as choosing from an offer set, and the firm decides the best subset to offer at any given moment to maximize expected revenue. The resulting dynamic program for the firm is intractable and approximated by a deterministic linear program called the CDLP which has an exponential number of columns. However, under the choice‐set paradigm when the segment consideration sets overlap, the CDLP is difficult to solve. Column generation has been proposed but finding an entering column has been shown to be NP‐hard. In this study, starting with a concave program formulation called SDCP that is based on segment‐level consideration sets, we add a class of constraints called product constraints (σPC), that project onto subsets of intersections. In addition, we propose a natural direct tightening of the SDCP called , and compare the performance of both methods on the benchmark data sets in the literature. In our computational testing on the data sets, 2PC achieves the CDLP value at a fraction of the CPU time taken by column generation. For a large network our 2PC procedure runs under 70 seconds to come within 0.02% of the CDLP value, while column generation takes around 1 hour; for an even larger network with 68 legs, column generation does not converge even in 10 hours for most of the scenarios while 2PC runs under 9 minutes. Thus we believe our approach is very promising for quickly approximating CDLP when segment consideration sets overlap and the consideration sets themselves are relatively small.     

Factors Affecting Choice and Satisfaction: Social Work in Turkey

ABSTRACT

The study examines the relationship between professional choices and employment expectations of social worker trainees in the country of Turkey. Professional choices are examined according to gender and the relationship between employment expectations and satisfaction. This study examined responses with a comparative relational scanning model with a sample of 692 social service (social worker) trainees studying at four different universities in Turkey. Students were surveyed and answered 25 open- and closed-ended questions identifying aspects related to their career choice. Study findings reveal that gender, university entrance scores, and employability were high among the career selection factors. Additional factors identified included family-related factors, personality traits, and compatibility. Examination of the findings is discussed, and recommendations for further research are made.     

Till Death Us Do Part? A Critical Analysis of Obligation and Choice for Spousal Caregivers

Research demonstrates a significant number of carers identify obligation or lack of other alternatives as the reasons they undertake informal care. By utilizing critical discourse analysis, this research explores choice for informal caregivers in contemporary Australian social policy. Analysis demonstrates increasing shifts in policy toward choice in consumer-directed care, a feature absent for those who provide care. Familial care is a central pillar of Australian social policy, as it is in many liberal and conservative welfare regimes. Analysis reveals that these core social policies are fundamentally incongruent, with significant implications for individuals and social work practice.