上海服务业“结构奖赏”与“结构惩罚”效应分析

2012年,上海第三产业增加值占GDP比重首超60％,达到服务经济的国际标准。借助shift—share方法对2003-2012年上海第三产业劳动生产率变动进行分解得出：“结构奖赏”和“结构负担”假说并存,且前者效应已高于后者,表明结构转换有助于提升劳动生产率,但力度有限;各行业内部劳动生产率的提升才是上海第三产业劳动生产率提升的主体。上海调整第三产业结构的前提是各行业能按自身发展规律协调发展,即须在发展中实现结构转换,而非片面追求结构调整。     

Symbiosis of Microcredit and Private Moneylending in Cambodia

Microcredit's potential for poverty reduction is a highly contested issue. In Cambodia, the dramatically increasing commercial microcredit coexists with widespread private moneylending. These two practices are rooted in different economic world views: neoliberalism on the one hand, and the traditional Khmer economic sociality permeated by patronage on the other. The ethnography shows that far from competing with each other, microcredit and private lending have adapted to form a symbiotic relationship, and much private lending is financed through microcredit. While microcredit is often beneficial to people living well above the poverty line, the widespread access to credit, through microloans as well as private lending, is threatening the livelihoods of the economically most vulnerable and precipitating their social, economic and spatial exclusion from their local communities. In contrast to the social and economic exclusion caused by land grabbing and forced evictions, which has received a fair amount of public attention, exclusion as a consequence of indebtedness has, for sociocultural reasons, remained much less visible.     

The impact of timely information on organisational performance in a supply chain

Information produced by ERP systems is termed JIT-information, since it is provided at the right time in the right place with a minimum of waste. The JIT-information construct is defined and described and a measurement scale is developed. A JIT-information performance model is proposed and assessed using a structural equation modelling methodology. The results indicate that the model fits the data well: (1) supply chain management strategy positively impacts JIT-information, (2) JIT-information directly impacts both logistics and organisational performance, and (3) logistics performance directly impacts organisational performance.     

我国银行客户经理制优化探讨——基于中小企业信贷视角

以中小企业信贷为视角,探讨优化我国银行客户经理制的思路和路径,针对银行客户经理制的组织模式、业务流程、管理制度和作业支持方面提出具体建议。     

交互效应矩阵理论及应用

交互效应矩阵理论,是一种定性与定量相结合的控制理论,用以解决和处理一些运用经典数学的方法难以解决的模糊信息问题.本文将交互效应矩阵理论引入教学控制范畴,研究和分析学校的教学问题.实践证明这是一种行之有效、效果显著的教育控制理论,具有重要的推广价值.     

1990年以来的日本经济增长分析

日本进入20世纪90年代之后,经济长期不振陷入爬行增长状态。通过国民收入支出法的量化分析,说明内需严重不足,特别是民间投资部门的增长率和贡献度都呈负值。尽管公共部门和国际贸易部门在经济增长中起到了一定的积极作用,但由于泡沫经济崩溃的影响和多年来积累的结构性矛盾的解决需要时间,所以直到21世纪初日本经济仍未能摆脱长期萧条的状态。     

Integrated retail decisions with multiple selling periods and customer segments: Optimization and insights

Integrating retail decisions on such aspects as assortment, pricing, and inventory greatly improves profitability. We examine a multi-period selling horizon where a retailer jointly optimizes assortment planning, pricing, and inventory decisions for a product line of substitutable products, in a market with multiple customer segments. Focusing on fast-moving retail products, the problem is modeled as a mixed-integer nonlinear program where demand is driven by exogenous consumer reservation prices and endogenous assortment and pricing decisions. A mixed-integer linear reformulation is developed, which enables an exact solution to large problem instances (with up to a hundred products) in manageable times. Empirical evidence is provided in support of a classical deterministic maximum-surplus consumer choice model. Computational results and managerial insights are discussed. We find that the optimal assortment and pricing decisions do not exhibit a simple, intuitive structure that could be analytically characterized, which reflects the usefulness of optimization approaches to numerically identify attractive trade-offs for the decision-maker. We also observe that suboptimal inventory policies significantly decrease profitability, which highlights the importance of integrated decision-making. Finally, we find that the seasonality of consumer preferences and supply costs present an opportunity for boosting the profit via higher inventory levels and wider assortments.     

国际资本流动冲击有利于经济增长吗

本文估算并应用潜在产出描述经济增长,尝试从国际合作角度设定动态结构面板向量自回归模型,识别自发性国际资本流动的综合性结构冲击,并进一步分解为共同冲击和特有冲击,提出研究国际资本流动冲击对经济增长影响的计量思路,以金砖国家为例进行实证分析。研究发现：国际资本流动冲击对金砖各国经济增长的效应因资本账户开放进程而异,但对金砖整体经济增长存在正效应,且不为金砖各国之间的资本流动冲击所扰;将金砖国家视为以国际合作形式联合的整体进行计量分析是可行且有经济意义的。中国应推进包括金砖国家在内的全方位南南合作,不断完善资本账户开放条件,分散国际资本流动冲击并使其有利于长期共同发展。     

‘Wallbanking’, innovativeness and computer attitudes: 25–40-year-old ATM-users on the spot

Attitudes towards ‘wallbanking’ (making use of banking services through an Automated Teller Machine (ATM)) and self-reported frequency of wallbanking have been related to attitudes towards innovations and towards computers. The investigation also included the perception of advantages as well as disadvantages of wallbanking, factors that determine one's choice of a bank, man-machine problems related to the use of an ATM, and demographic factors. Using a sample of 201 respondents in the age range of 25 to 40 years, structural equation modeling revealed that wallbanking attitudes have a major influence on the frequency of using ATMs. The innovativeness attitude ‘New is wasteful’ also showed a clear negative link with the frequency of wallbanking. On the other hand, the relationship between computer attitudes and the frequency of using ATMs had to be rejected. Income and education proved to have an indirect link with the frequency of wallbanking, which refines other research findings. These results may reflect specific financial management characteristics of the age group under investigation.     

The Effect of Veteran Status on Mortality among Older Americans and its Pathways

This research examines excess mortality among American veterans age 70 years or older during a two-to-three year interval from 1993/94 to the end of 1995. Using a structural hazard rate model, we analyzed data on a sample of respondents age 70 or over from the Survey of Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). We found that at age 70, older veterans have a slightly higher death rate than their nonveteran counterparts, implying a mortality crossover right before this age. Such excess mortality among veterans increases considerably with age, when other factors are held equal. The direct and indirect effects of veteran status on mortality by means of physical and mental health mostly perform in opposite directions, and such effects vary greatly in magnitude and direction as a function of age. The intervening effects of physical and mental health status decrease substantially with increasing age. Many of the mechanisms inherent in the excess mortality among older veterans are not captured by variations in their health status, especially among the oldest-old. A more extensive study on this topic is urgently needed.