基于结构方程的内工大普研教育满意度研究

随着我国高等教育的普及,研究生教育日益重要,对在读研究生的满意度进行研究也就具有实际意义。本文以顾客满意度作为出发点,结合结构方程模型的工具,对高校普研教育满意度设立模型,通过不断修正,最终形成五个潜变量和十五个测量变量的理论模型,并对模型进行实证分析,通过模型的拟合度检验了模型与数据的合理性,以期为我校改善普研教育机制提供理论依据。     

北京郊区农民城镇化意愿影响因素的实证分析

城镇化是一项系统工程,涉及农民意愿,内容涵盖农民城镇生活、农村迁建、土地流转和就业意愿等。农民意愿受个人、家庭和制度等因素的影响,因区域的差异而迥异。文章以北京郊区户籍农民调查数据为基础,运用计划行为(TPB)理论构建结构方程模型(SEM)分析其影响因素。结果证明,运用计划行为理论分析意愿的影响因素是适用的,农民的城镇化行为态度已经处于追求经济理性和价值理性阶段,感知行为控制中的非经济理性、迁居成本和个人特征对意愿有较强影响,农民在做决策时会更多参考亲戚、家人和邻里的意见。     

证券市场监管结构分析

证券市场的监管体系通常是由证券法律规制、行政监管、自律监管、媒体监督共同构成的一个结构化整体。在证券市场监管总体中 ,各个组成部分各有其独特的功能和作用 ,它们相互补充又相互制约 ,共同形成证券市场监管结构均衡     

Computing optimal adjustment schemes for the general tool-wear problem

An important problem in process adjustment using feedback is how often to sample the process and when and by how much to apply an adjustment. Minimum cost feedback schemes based on simple, but practically interesting, models for disturbances and dynamics have been discussed in several particular cases. The more general situation in which there may be measurement and adjustment errors, deterministic process drift, and costs of taking an observation, of making an adjustment, and of being off target, is considered in this article. Assuming all these costs to be known, a numerical method to minimize the overall expected cost is presented. This numerical method provides the optimal sampling interval, action limits, and amount of adjustment; and the resulting average adjustment interval, mean squared deviation from target, and minimum overall expected cost. When the costs of taking an observation, of making an adjustment, and of being off target are not known, the method can be used to choose a particular scheme by judging the advantages and disadvantages of alternative options considering the mean squared deviation they produce, the frequency with which they require observations to be made, and the resulting overall length of time between adjustments. Computer codes that perform the required computations are provided in the appendices and applied to find optimal adjustment schemes in three real examples of application.     

True Versus Spurious Long Memory: Some Theoretical Results and a Monte Carlo Comparison

A common feature of financial time series is their strong persistence. Yet, long memory may just be the spurious effect of either structural breaks or slow switching regimes. We explore the effects of spurious long memory on the elasticity of the stock market price with respect to volatility and show how cross-sectional aggregation may generate spurious persistence in the data. We undertake an extensive Monte Carlo study to compare the performance of five tests, constructed under the null of true long memory versus the alternative of spurious long memory due to level shifts or breaks.     

The mad estimator: when is it non-linear? applications to two-way design models

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) estimator has recently received a great deal of attention as applied to full-rank linear regression models. This paper provides a necessary and sufficient condition for the MAD estimator to be a non-linear estimator, in which case conditions for the variance of the MAD estimator to be larger or smaller than those for OLS are, in general, unknown. The non-linearity of the MAD estimator is examined for several two-way designs; in particular (1) randomized block design (2) two-way nested design (3) two-way classification with interaction and (4) partially balanced incomplete block design     

济阳拗陷深层隐蔽构造及其勘探意义

基于构造本身的复杂性， 提出了隐蔽构造的概念， 认为隐蔽构造是指那些受勘探技术限制以及构造自身的复杂性而不能明确其特征、 性质和演化历史的构造。对于隐蔽构造的研究应以界面和变形标志的识别为基础， 地层结构的分析为核心， 以先进的构造思维和技术手段为保证。济阳拗陷深层发育有大型走滑断裂带、 反转构造、 构造转换带或过渡带、 底辟构造带、 潜山内幕构造、 复杂的断裂带、 隐伏断裂等隐蔽构造样式。对于潜山构造的勘探， 可以顺走滑断裂带进行勘探。隐蔽构造样式的识别对拓展深层油气勘探新领域，优选与评价有利油气富集区带， 以及进一步的油气地质综合研究等， 均具有一定意义。     

A cross-validation of a structural equation model of accidents: organizational and psychological variables as predictors of work safety

A study to establish a structural equation model of accidents is presented. The eight variables included in the model were those associated with accidents in previous research. The reliability of questionnaires to measure those variables and a structural equation model relating them are provided. The model explaining the occurrence of accidents was cross-validated through three Spanish samples (n=123; 182; 124).The model presented a good fit to data in two samples, while a third had unclear fit indices. Therefore, most relationships among variables did not vary among these three samples. The role of the safety variables in the model is discussed. The discussion is also focused on risk measurement difficulties commonly reported in the literature. Finally, some suggestions for future safety research with structural equation modelling techniques are provided.     

Flexible regression modeling

The author proposes a new method for flexible regression modeling of multi‐dimensional data, where the regression function is approximated by a linear combination of logistic basis functions. The method is adaptive, selecting simple or more complex models as appropriate. The number, location, and (to some extent) shape of the basis functions are automatically determined from the data. The method is also affine invariant, so accuracy of the fit is not affected by rotation or scaling of the covariates. Squared error and absolute error criteria are both available for estimation. The latter provides a robust estimator of the conditional median function. Computation is relatively fast, particularly for large data sets, so the method is well suited for data mining applications.     

1990年以来的日本经济增长分析

日本进入20世纪90年代之后,经济长期不振陷入爬行增长状态。通过国民收入支出法的量化分析,说明内需严重不足,特别是民间投资部门的增长率和贡献度都呈负值。尽管公共部门和国际贸易部门在经济增长中起到了一定的积极作用,但由于泡沫经济崩溃的影响和多年来积累的结构性矛盾的解决需要时间,所以直到21世纪初日本经济仍未能摆脱长期萧条的状态。