是封建复辟还是价值传承--基于“夏俊峰”案的“存留养亲”制度分析

“存留养亲”制度自北魏时期开始出现在封建法典之中,至清末修律时方得废除。在漫长的封建社会中,该制度中所蕴含的“孝”的观念及人文主义精神对维护封建统治和封建伦常起到重要作用。时至今日,“存留养亲”作为封建社会的一项制度已不能为我国刑法所适用,但该制度中蕴含的传统法律文化精神对我国“孝”文化的传承与发扬,对我国当前社会转型特殊时期出现的部分矛盾的缓解,对人伦道德的价值追溯均不无裨益。这也为我国刑法合理的借鉴或吸收“存留养亲”制度提供了基础。当然,刑法对“存留养亲”制度的吸收与借鉴也要考虑到我国现阶段的社会现实情况,对可适用“存留养亲”的死刑犯人也要制定相对完备的法律制度。     

城市居民理想养老居住方式的选择--基于南京等四城市抽样调查的实证研究

本文基于一项在扬州、南京、镇江、泰州四城市进行的老年生活状况调查,描述了这四城市居民理想养老居住方式的选择情况,并且利用Logistic回归分析方法试图研究影响居民理想养老居住方式选择意愿的主要因素。得出的基本结论是:人们在年老时,其理想的居住方式受多方面因素的影响和制约,但基本上可以归结为三个方面:观念因素、经济因素和体制因素。其中观念因素主要体现在文化程度变量上,是影响居民选择意愿的最主要因素。经济因素和体制因素体现在个人月收入和职业变量上,体制因素比经济因素在影响居民的选择意愿方面起到更加重要的作用。     

Stress and role satisfaction experienced by employed and nonemployed mothers with young children

The associations between employment status, role choice, social support, stressful events, and mothers' experiences of stress and role satisfaction were investigated. Interviews and questionnaires were used to obtain information from 105 mothers with two-year-old children. Role choice, social support, and stressful events each predicted the amount of stress mothers experienced in their lives, although not all did so independently. Employment status, role choice, and social support predicted role satisfaction.Thanks are extended to Lynn Arner, Susan Goodwyn, and Cindy Litman for their contributions to the project, and to Curt Acredolo and Leanne Friedman for their assistance with statistical analysis and computer programming.Susan B. Crockenberg received her Ph.D. from Stanford University. She is now a Professor, Department of Applied Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616. Research interests include the developmental, contextual, and child determinants of maternal role adjustment, maternal behavior, and their impact on the child's social-emotional development.     

Individual and organizational strategies for coping with organizational change

During times of significant change to organizations in strategies and structures, employees can experience high levels of stress as their jobs, areas of responsibility and roles also change. Yet research is curiously silent about how people react to organizational change, especially towards promoting healthy responses to change. As a first step to outlining areas for future research this paper considers a range of individual and organizational strategies that may be effective in reducing employee stress and related problems. Prior to the implementation of these strategies, however, organizations must empower employees to adopt the role of change agent and encourage them to take action to solve the problems that stress them. At the individual level, employees can respond to the stress created by organizational change by using problem- and emotion-focused strategies. Also important in coping with change are the personal resources of employees, including a sense of hardiness, beliefs about having control over their work environment, and the availability of social supports within and outside the organization. Although few organizations fully acknowledge their role in helping employees cope with change, there are a number of initiatives that organizations can pursue. Several strategies are discussed in relation to communication, leadership, job-related tasks and stress management programmes.     

基于机器学习LSTM&US模型的消费者信心指数预测研究

消费者信心指数等宏观经济指标具有时间上的滞后效应和动态变化的多维性,不易精确预测。本文基于机器学习长短时间记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)神经网络模型,结合大数据技术挖掘消费者信心指数相关网络搜索数据(User Search,US),进而构建一种LSTM&US预测模型,并将其应用于对我国消费者信心指数的长期、中期与短期的预测研究,同时引入多个基准预测模型进行了对比分析。结果发现:引入网络搜索数据能够提高LSTM神经网络模型的预测性能与预测精度;LSTM&US预测模型具有较好的泛化能力,对不同期限的预测效果均较稳定,其预测性能与预测精度均优于其他六种基准预测模型(LSTM、SVR&US、RFR&US、BP&US、XGB&US和LGB&US);预测结果显示本文提出的LSTM&US预测模型具有一定的实用价值,该预测方法为消费者信心指数的预测与预判提供了一种新的研究思路,丰富了机器学习方法在宏观经济指标预测领域中的理论研究。     

Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR

This article develops a vector autoregression (VAR) for time series which are observed at mixed frequencies—quarterly and monthly. The model is cast in state-space form and estimated with Bayesian methods under a Minnesota-style prior. We show how to evaluate the marginal data density to implement a data-driven hyperparameter selection. Using a real-time dataset, we evaluate forecasts from the mixed-frequency VAR and compare them to standard quarterly frequency VAR and to forecasts from MIDAS regressions. We document the extent to which information that becomes available within the quarter improves the forecasts in real time. This article has online supplementary materials.     

Some asymptotic properties of point estimation with n-dimensional fuzzy data

Some asymptotic properties of point estimation with n-dimensional fuzzy data with respect to a special L ₂-metric ρ are investigated in this article. It is shown that the collection of all n-dimensional fuzzy data endowed with the ρ-metric is a complete and separable space. Some criterions for point estimation in such fuzzy environments are proposed, and the sample mean, variance and covariance with n-dimensional fuzzy data under these criteria are further studied.     

Family Support Groups for Family Members of Mentally Ill Offenders: Therapeutic Factors

This study investigates therapeutic factors of a Family Support Group (FSG) intervention for family members of mentally ill offenders. Seventeen family members completed the ‘Group Therapeutic Factors‐Client Questionnaire’ (GTF‐CQ‐28) during four sessions of two FSGs. Results indicate that family members experienced the following therapeutic factors over the course of treatment: the relational climate, interactional confirmation, expressing and experiencing mutual positive feelings, forgetting own problems, hope from seeing progress in others, guidance from therapists, and getting interpersonal feedback treatment. The therapeutic factors, including learning by observation, support from the group, and universality of problems, correlated with a decrease in self‐blame, improved emotional well‐being, and experiencing less loss of control over one's life, respectively. Further, family members were satisfied with what the FSG has provided for them personally and for the relation with their relative. Finally, clinical implications of the FSG are discussed. The study sheds light on valuable therapeutic factors within an FSG and the important role of therapists.     

Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime.     

Job design and levels of physical and mental strain among Australian prison officers

Abstract

Over the past 15 years much has been made of the moderating influence of job discretion and support in occupations that are perceived to be high in demands. Such an effect seems to be most prevalent when subject populations are large and heterogeneous. One aim of this study was to examine the influence of subjective perceptions of these variables on strain reactions among a group of relatively homogeneous workers such as, in the present study, prison officers (n = 274). A second aim was to extend previous research and examine the joint influence of negative affectivity and perceptions of demands, discretion, and support on mental and physical well-being. It was hypothesized that those high in negative affect would be particularly strained by jobs perceived as being demanding. The hypothesized relationship between job demands, discretion and support were found to be weak and at times inconsistent. Social support, in particular, was found to have both positive and negative consequences for different aspects of well-being. Those high in negative affect were in general found to suffer lower mental well-being. More importantly, the interactive effect of negative affectivity and job demands was found to significantly predict the majority of the dependent variables used in this study. The valences of these relationships were inconsistent and are interpreted in light of Warr's (1987) vitamin model of stress.

There are several conclusions that can be drawn from the present study. Negative affectivity appears to have a truly interactive effect with job components, job demands in particular, to influence a range of variables relating to physical and mental health as well a job-related attitudes. The nature of these effects, however, suggests a dissociation in the ways that different independent variables influence a range of indices of well-being and affect. This result requires further investigation since there are important theoretical implications which will follow if the data are replicable.

In order to examine such complex effects, in addition to the need for more longitudinal studies, it is also important that standardized measures of job components are developed so that levels of stress exposure can be equated and their impact assessed across organizational settings.

Finally, the data reported in this study suggest that some effective stress management may be undertaken by adopting selection strategies which take into consideration individual characteristics. In view of the fact that individual stress management programmes are of unproven benefit (Murphy 1986, 1988) such an approach is recommended especially for those organizations which are highly constrained in the services that must be performed.