Sequential case series analysis for pharmacovigilance

Summary.  The self-controlled case series method is used to evaluate drug safety, particularly the safety of paediatric vaccines with respect to rare adverse reactions. We propose a group sequential version of the method for prospective surveillance of drug safety. We focus on the surveillance of new vaccines. We develop methods that are based on the sequential probability ratio test applied at predetermined surveillance intervals, using both simple and composite alternative hypotheses. We investigate the properties of the methods analytically in a simple setting and by simulations in more realistic scenarios. The methods are applied to data on influenza vaccine and Bell's palsy, and to data on measles, mumps and rubella vaccine and bleeding disorders.     

Algorithmic IF … THEN rules and the conditions and consequences of power

ABSTRACT

The introduction to this special issue suggests we need to develop ‘a greater understanding of what might be thought of as the social power of algorithms'. In this paper, ‘social power’ will be critically scrutinised through a study of the entanglement of algorithmic rules with contemporary video-based surveillance technologies. The paper will begin with an analysis of algorithmic ‘IF?…?THEN’ rules and the conditions (IF) and consequences (THEN) that need to be accomplished for an algorithm to be said to succeed. The work of achieving conditions and consequences demonstrates that the form of ‘power’ in focus is not solely attributable to the algorithm as such, but operates through distributed agency and can be noted as a network effect. That is, the conditions and consequences of algorithmic rules only come into being through the careful plaiting of relatively unstable associations of people, things, processes, documents and resources. From this we can say that power is not primarily social in the sense that algorithms alone create an impact on society, but social in the sense of power being derived through algorithmic associations. The paper argues that this kind of power is most clearly visible in moments of breakdown, failure or other forms of trouble, whereby algorithmic conditions and consequences are not met and the careful plaiting of associations has to be brought to the fore and examined. It is through such examinations that the associational dependencies more than the social power of algorithms are made apparent.     

The surveillant assemblage

George Orwell's 'Big Brother' and Michel Foucault's 'panopticon' have dominated discussion of contemporary developments in surveillance. While such metaphors draw our attention to important attributes of surveillance, they also miss some recent dynamics in its operation. The work of Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari is used to analyse the convergence of once discrete surveillance systems. The resultant 'surveillant assemblage' operates by abstracting human bodies from their territorial settings, and separating them into a series of discrete flows. These flows are then reassembled in different locations as discrete and virtual 'data doubles'. The surveillant assemblage transforms the purposes of surveillance and the hierarchies of surveillance, as well as the institution of privacy.     

Monitoring point patterns for the development of space–time clusters

Existing statistical methods for the detection of space–time clusters of point events are retrospective, in that they are used to ascertain whether space–time clustering exists among a fixed number of past events. In contrast, prospective methods treat a series of observations sequentially, with the aim of detecting quickly any changes that occur in the series. In this paper, cumulative sum methods of monitoring are adapted for use with Knox's space–time statistic. The result is a procedure for the rapid detection of any emergent space–time interactions for a set of sequentially monitored point events. The approach relies on a 'local' Knox statistic that is useful in retrospective analyses to detect when and where space–time interaction occurs. The distribution of the local Knox statistic under the null hypothesis of no space–time interaction is derived. The retrospective local statistic and the prospective cumulative sum monitoring method are illustrated by using previously published data on Burkitt's lymphoma in Uganda.     

浅析美国政府行政伦理与反腐败机制建设

美国政府不断强化行政伦理建设,对于预防腐败、保持廉洁成效明显,值得我们研究并借鉴。政府加强行政伦理建设的重要性在于：有利于从根本上预防腐败;可预防不违法、却是不道德的腐败;事先预防比事后惩罚更具有成效。其对中国预防腐败的重要启示是：通过强化行政伦理建设,加强对政府施政行为的严密监管;应注重事先主动的预防,而不是事后被动的惩罚。     

Effect of Dependency in Systems for Multivariate Surveillance

Systems for multivariate on-line surveillance (e.g., outbreak detection) are investigated. Optimal systems for statistical surveillance are based on likelihood ratios. Three systems are compared: based on each marginal density, based on the joint density, and based on the Hotelling's T2. The effect of dependency between the monitored processes is investigated, and the effect of correlation between the change times. When the first change occurs immediately, the three methods give similar delay of an alarm, in the situation with independency. For late changes, T2 has the longest delay, both for independent processes and for processes with a positive covariance.     

不同社会群体荣耻评价与监督形式的作用与特征

荣辱评价与监督机制是一个综合性的功能体系。社会群体评价监督形式,体现的是道德的他律性与外在约束力。其功能作用的有效发挥,有赖于多层次的荣辱评价监督体系的构建与协同互动。     

论缓刑保证金制度的设立

为了保证缓刑的有效执行,强化监管力度,提高对罪犯的改造质量,迫切需要对缓刑犯设立保证金制度。这既是适应社会主义市场经济体制的需要,也是适应人们思想观念变化的需要,同时也是积极参与和推行社会治安综合治理的一项重要措施。在执行中,既要合理确定保证金适用的数额幅度,又要严格规范保证金的执行程序及管理办法;严格办案制度和严格执行缓刑的法定条件,加强对保证金的财务管理,杜绝把保证金作为单位的“创收”来源,从而保证缓刑保证金的公正执行而不发生偏差。     

论网络监督重在规范运行

近年来,一场全民互动的网络监督把反腐斗争推向了高潮。利用网络反腐是对传统反腐形式不足的有益补充,但应该看到网络监督是一把双刃剑,在发挥效用的同时也难免会带来负面影响。通过立法等措施加强对网络监督的规范,是当务之急。