Likelihood-based inference for the transmuted log-logistic model in the presence of right-censored data

Although new transmuted distributions have been widely proposed in the last few years, it is rarely to find those class of models applied in survival analysis in the presence of censored lifetimes. In this context, we are concerned in applying the transmuted log-logistic model in the study of discharge times of patients treated with the Linezolid drug. For model fitting, we use and compare different profile likelihood methods. Analysis of residuals and influence are also presented. All results are validated in a simulation study by considering the bootstrap techniques.     

A new lifetime model with regression models,characterizations and applications

In this article, we introduce a new extension of Burr XII distribution called Topp Leone Generated Burr XII distribution. We derive some of its properties. Useful characterizations are presented. Simulation study is performed to assess the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators. Censored maximum likelihood estimation is presented in the general case of multi-censored data. The new location-scale regression model based on the proposed distribution is introduced. The usefulness of the proposed models is illustrated empirically by means of three real datasets.     

非洲集体安全机制的创新与困境

作为冷战后区域集体安全的典型案例,旨在通过集体行动预防、管理和解决内部冲突的非洲集体安全机制建设具有重要的创新之处,主要包括:它突破联合国框架内的"中心化的集体安全"而形成一种"非中心化的集体安全";它将以和平强制行动为核心,使人道主义干预法律化、规范化;它通过启用早期预警与反应系统和非洲待命部队构建起冲突预防的运行机制等.但非洲集体安全机制在运行中亦面临合法性不足及组织能力和资源能力受限等现实困境.这些困境可以通过强化区域一体化培育更大的自主性和完善已有的"合作维和"机制予以破解.     

跨国证券投资法律适用规则与发展

跨国证券投资的法律适用包括证券发行与交易中的法律适用规则。各国有关证券投资的立法存在着差异与冲突,证券投资关系的准据法确定取决于对证券的定性及其适用范围的划定,大致包括证券物权关系、证券合同关系和证券股权关系三方面。其法律适用不仅针对证券发行与交易中的私法关系,也涉及证券监管中的公法关系。因此,应对证券法律关系中的具体问题进行识别,区分其中的私法与公法不同属性,而采用不同的法律适用原则。跨国证券法律适用的发展,主要反映为证券法的直接适用及其域外适用性问题,尤其体现于美国扩大其证券法域外适用的相关立法与司法实践。     

The Auditor's Going-Concern Disclosure as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis*

The question of how an auditor's going-concern disclosure affects a client's future operations has long troubled the auditing profession. In an attempt to provide further understanding of this issue, we introduce Discrete-Time Survival Analysis (DTSA) to examine the aftermath of 231 first-time going-concern disclosures on clients' subsequent continuance. DTSA represents a significant refinement over traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic (LOGIT) regression in that it provides not only a probability estimate, but also an estimate of the timing of the event occurrence. The addition of this extra dimension (event timing) aids decision makers by providing more complete information about event probabilities. Consistent with the “self-fulfilling prophecy effect,” the risk profiles developed from DTSA indicate that the first year subsequent to the initial going-concern disclosure was the most dangerous in terms of risk of bankruptcy. However, after the first year, the incidence of bankruptcy decreases significantly. Thus, DTSA is able to provide a richer perspective on this perplexing issue than previously considered.     

金融危机背景下加强对上海市外来务工人员的保障与服务思考

2008年发生在美国的金融危机,很快席卷全球,不仅影响到中国的实体经济,还影响到中国的劳动力市场,农民工群体深受影响：就业形势严峻,生存生活状况令人担忧。文章以上海市为例,探讨金融危机背景下加强上海市外来务工人员的服务与保障问题。     

城乡统筹战略指导下的农村最低生活保障制度建设

最低生活保障制度是绝大多数市场经济国家普遍实行的以保障全体公民基本生存权利为目标的社会救助制度。针对我国目前城乡分割的二元社会结构,基于长期以来在计划经济时期形成的重城市轻农村的发展思路,城镇和农村实施的是内容和标准完全不同、甚至是城镇低保制度优于农村低保制度的不公平的现状。如何有效解决农村的贫困问题是一个值得深思和解决的问题。本文认为,以城乡统筹的战略发展思路,建立健全农村最低生活保障制度。探索城乡统一的居民最低生活保障制度,是一条解决城乡贫困问题的有效的制度安排和政策选择。     

Nonparametric estimation of mean residual functions

Situations frequently arise in practice in which mean residual life (mrl) functions must be ordered. For example, in a clinical trial of three experiments, let e (1), e (2) and e (3) be the mrl functions, respectively, for the disease groups under the standard and experimental treatments, and for the disease-free group. The well-documented mrl functions e (1) and e (3) can be used to generate a better estimate for e (2) under the mrl restriction e (1) < or = e (2) < or = e (3). In this paper we propose nonparametric estimators of the mean residual life function where both upper and lower bounds are given. Small and large sample properties of the estimators are explored. Simulation study shows that the proposed estimators have uniformly smaller mean squared error compared to the unrestricted empirical mrl functions. The proposed estimators are illustrated using a real data set from a cancer clinical trial study.     

Examining evidence of financial and credit exclusion in Canada from 1999 to 2005

Changes are occurring in the provision of consumer credit, including the expansion of subprime and some fringe financial services (e.g., payday lending). We link two existing literatures on credit constraint and financial exclusion to assess the impact of these developments on the financial circumstances of low and modest-income consumers. We develop a model that identifies observable measures of credit constraint and financial exclusion and relate them to consumer characteristics and life cycle behaviour. We estimate this model using the two latest Surveys of Financial Security for 1999 and 2005, which provide consistent evidence of credit constraint and financial exclusion through time. We find modest overlap among our measures of financial exclusion, which include a zero balance/no account, credit card refusal, and using a pawnshop. Probit regression is used to investigate the factors influencing the incidence of financial exclusion. The results are similar for 1999 and 2005 and indicate rising incidence of financial exclusion as income and wealth fall, although the relationship is nonlinear such that incidence rises much faster at very low levels of income and wealth. Our analysis also suggests potentially important links between financial literacy, formal education, asset building, and financial exclusion and credit constraint. When we combine the samples, we find statistically significant evidence of growth in the incidence of each indicator of financial exclusion when other factors are held constant. Policy implications may include the strengthening of banking regulations that affect low-income Canadians and the promotion of universal financial literacy.     

大国平衡下的东盟安全机制及面临的挑战

东盟自其成立至今一直处于国际秩序的巨大变革中,在大国介入下,东盟内部的宗教、领土等问题不断发酵,争端不断。国际政治中的现实主义理论认为,国际体系的变化直接影响着国家行为,而国际社会的无政府状态决定了各国有扩张自身的权力以求生存的趋势。然而实力较弱的东盟各国难以依靠自身的力量实现自强和自保,因此它们通过建立联盟来构建大国平衡的安全机制,以维护本地区的独立与生存。尽管该机制一度提高了东盟的国际地位和生存能力,但随着国际多极化趋势和非传统安全威胁的扩展,传统的大国平衡安全机制的弊端渐趋显露出来,如果运用不好,它可能会妨碍该地区的和平与稳定。因此,在新的国际体系下,既要变革大国平衡机制,也要发展东盟内部的安全合作。