爱尔兰国家养老储备基金制度及其启示

全国社保基金理事会与爱尔兰国家养老储备基金（NPRF）是在同一时期成立的,至今爱尔兰国家养老储备基金的运行模式比较成功.我国社会保障基金的筹资、投资和监管方面有向其借鉴的必要性.本文介绍了爱尔兰国家养老储备基金建立的背景、管理框架、筹资以及投资策略,参考爱尔兰基金成功的运行经验,提出完善我国社保基金管理的建议.     

‘Hanging by Rubber’: How Cash Threatens the Agricultural Systems of the Siang Dayak

An unprecedented increase in industrial activity, particularly coal mining, is transforming Murung Raya Regency in Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. New opportunities to participate in the market economy are enticing many people in the area to move away from subsistence horticulture and towards generating cash income through various means, particularly the trade in rubber. The move away from subsistence horticulture, which is performed collectively, towards rubber tapping, which is done individually, alters social exchange relationships. This article examines the way in which integration with the market economy leads to the increasing dominance of individual modes of being over collective, and the constraints on both. The way in which these shifts threaten food security is also considered. The situation of the Siang of Murung Raya is contrasted with the Kantu’ of West Kalimantan.     

Professional development opportunities as retention incentives in child welfare

This study examined the career paths of 415 Title IV-E MSW graduates in one state retrospectively over 180 months post-graduation to discover factors that could be important in affecting retention in public child welfare agencies. The Title IV-E educational program is designed to be a retention strategy at the same time as it is a professionalization strategy. We surmised that perceived organizational support (POS) contributes to retention by acknowledging the workers' needs for career development support. The median survival time for these child welfare social workers was 43 months for the first job and 168 months for the entire child welfare career. The initial analysis showed steep drops in retention occurred at 24–36 months post-graduation, approximately at the end of the Title IV-E work obligation. Upon further examination, Kaplan–Meier tests showed organizational factors relevant to workers' professional career development predicted retention. Having access to continuing education and agency-supported case-focused supervision for licensure were correlated with retention at the 24–36 month post-graduation mark. At 72 months post-graduation, promotion to supervisor was a significant factor found to encourage retention. Being a field instructor for MSW students and being promoted to a managerial position were not significantly related to retention.     

Cost analysis of the strengthening families program in reducing time to family reunification among substance-affected families

Decision makers typically face uncertainty in determining whether the outcomes of promising child welfare interventions justify the investment. Despite repeated calls for cost analysis in child welfare, original studies that evaluate the costs and effects of child welfare programs have been limited. Moreover, no cost analyses have focused on family reunification programs that address the needs of substance-affected families. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the costs and effects of a federally funded implementation of the Strengthening Families Program (SFP), a 14-week family training curriculum, on time to reunification with a substance-involved child welfare population. Based on event history analysis, we find the typical child participating in SFP spends 190 fewer days in out of home care when compared to a propensity score matched comparison group of children in out-of home care receiving treatment as usual. Re-entry rates between the two groups were not significantly different at follow-up. At an average out-of-home care rate of $86 per child per day in this state, SFP saves approximately $16,340 per participating child in out-of-home care costs. From a cost–benefit perspective, every $1 invested in SFP yields an average savings of $9.83 in this Midwestern demonstration.     

The Clash between Social Policy and Traditional Values: Unmet Welfare Needs Sustained by the Culture of Familism in South Korea

Drawing from a wider study of the ideas of poverty and inequality in South Korea, this paper reports on the lived experiences of disadvantaged South Koreans and their relationship to the National Basic Livelihood Security System (NBLSS), a flagship social assistance program aimed at addressing poverty and inequality. Utilizing a cultural approach to understanding and analysing policy responses to poverty, the impact of familism in the application of the NBLSS safety net is examined. Research data is presented through the testimonies, obtained through qualitative research interviews, of disadvantaged research participants and those who work with them, as well as policy‐makers' perspectives, revealing key flaws in the current NBLSS policy objectives. It is clearly evident that, by clinging to outdated Confucian conceptualizations of familial piety as a justification for highly selectivist access to what is no more than a subsistence level of financial support for poor people, the proposition of a poverty safety net is compromised and is widely missing its aim of reducing poverty and inequality in contemporary South Korea.     

我国多层次资本条件下转板机制的构建

转板是指根据信息披露质量、财务规模、股份构成等情况,公司可以在不同证券市场或同一证券市场不同层次市场之间转换上市或挂牌进行股份交易或转让。转板机制是我国当前加紧构建的多层次资本市场的核心制度。一个真正的多层次资本市场,不同板块之间的直接转板机制应该是畅通的。我国《证券法》目前对于转板存在一定的法律障碍。鉴于实际操作中还不允许转板,不利于多层次资本市场的建设,也不利于交易(场)所之间的竞争,因此,建议在修改《证券法》时扫除转板的法律障碍,增加转板的有关规定。     

Two heads are safer than one: Changes in CEO duality and venture failure

We study the dynamics of a major design choice in the governance of ventures: whether to distribute power at the top of the venture between a separate CEO and board chair. We propose that ventures are more likely to combine (separate) their CEO and chair positions when operational performance is poor (strong), demonstrating behavior in line with the threat rigidity thesis. Paradoxically, however, ventures would most benefit from a separate CEO and board chair when operational performance is poor. Empirical analysis of data from the Australian mining industry offers general support for our theory, with some interesting nuances. We discuss the implications of our findings for emerging conversations in the literatures on venture boards, boards of directors, and entrepreneurship.     

农产品价值增值的路径和制度保障——兼论粮食安全、食品安全、食品质量的关联性

基于农业多功能性的理论,农产品的价值不仅体现在通过食品供应满足人类相关的需求,同时也涉及其在环境保持、文化传承方面的作用。有鉴于此,农产品政策和法律不应仅着眼于解决食用农产品供应相关的问题,包括粮食安全、食品安全和食品质量,还应该将环境、文化关怀这些因素融入到农业发展中,在实现农业的可持续发展的同时,通过借助这些因素提升农产品的价值来满足消费者日益增长的环境、文化需求。在这个方面,欧盟通过农产品质量项目的整合将上述各因素转换为实现农产品价值增值的路径,包括农业环境的补贴、关注传统文化的质量标志和追求差异性的私人标准及认证体系,进而为农产品价值增值的路径和制度保障提供了启示。     

Exploring the Clustering Effect of the Frailty Survival Model by Means of the Brier Score

In this article, the Brier score is used to investigate the importance of clustering for the frailty survival model. For this purpose, two versions of the Brier score are constructed, i.e., a “conditional Brier score” and a “marginal Brier score.” Both versions of the Brier score show how the clustering effects and the covariate effects affect the predictive ability of the frailty model separately. Using a Bayesian and a likelihood approach, point estimates and 95% credible/confidence intervals are computed. The estimation properties of both procedures are evaluated in an extensive simulation study for both versions of the Brier score. Further, a validation strategy is developed to calculate an internally validated point estimate and credible/confidence interval. The ensemble of the developments is applied to a dental dataset.     

Estimation in a model for a semi-Markov process with covariates under right-censoring

A semi-Markov model with covariates is proposed for a multi-state process with a finite number of states such that the transition probabilities between the states and the distribution functions of the duration times between the occurrence of two states depend on a discrete covariate. The hazard rates for the time elapsed between two successive states depend on the covariate through a proportional hazards model involving a set of regression parameters, while the transition probabilities depend on the covariate in an unspecified way. We propose estimators for these parameters and for the cumulative hazard functions of the sojourn times. A difficulty comes from the fact that when a sojourn time in a state is right-censored, the next state is unknown. We prove that our estimators are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian under the model constraints.