Order statistics from the linear-exponential distribution,part I: increasing hazard rate case

For the linear-exponential distribution with increasing hazard rate, exact and explicit expressions for means, product moments and percentage points of order statistics are obtained. Some recurrence relations for both single and product moments of order statistics are also derived. These recurrence relations would enable one to obtain all the higher order moments of order statistics for all sample sizes from those of the lower order     

约旦社会保障制度改革及其启示

和世界上大多数国家一样,约旦也面临着越来越严重的人口老龄化问题。为此,约旦政府在社会保障领域实施了三项重要的改革措施。一是参数式改革,即不改变现有制度的性质,只是调整具体的参数;二是整合碎片化制度改革,把公务员和军事人员纳入全国统一的社保制度中来;三是未雨绸缪,积极开展公共预筹积累制改革,融资模式由现收现付制逐步过渡到部分积累制,不断完善投资管理体制。这三项改革不仅符合世界银行提倡的改革模式,而且这三项改革措施之间的相互配合与协调,有力地推动了约旦社保制度的改革和发展,具有极强的借鉴意义。     

The Method to Identify a Biomarker and to Evaluate Its Efficiency for Survival by Using the Joint Model of the Accelerate Failure Time and Longitudinal Data

In this article, we discuss how to identify longitudinal biomarkers in survival analysis under the accelerated failure time model and also discuss the effectiveness of biomarkers under the accelerated failure time model. Two methods proposed by Shcemper et al. are deployed to measure the efficacy of biomarkers. We use simulations to explore how the factors can influence the power of a score test to detect the association of a longitudinal biomarker and the survival time. These factors include the functional form of the random effects from the longitudinal biomarkers, in the different number of individuals, and time points per individual. The simulations are used to explore how the number of individuals, the number of time points per individual influence the effectiveness of the biomarker to predict survival at the given endpoint under the accelerated failure time model. We illustrate our methods using a prothrombin index as a predictor of survival in liver cirrhosis patients.     

家政女工生存状态及社工介入方式研究——基于社会支持理论

本文在调查研究的基础上,对昆明市家政女工的生存状态进行了描述和分析。针对家政女工所面对的困难和问题,拟从社会支持理论中寻求理论依据,并通过社会工作的手段进行介入,以期找到一种解决问题的途径和方式。     

依赖与脆弱性：农民养老问题的一个实证分析——基于全国十个省份1000余位农民的调查数据

文章基于2009年全国十个省份30个行政村1000余位农民的调查数据，从“依赖性一脆弱性一养老困境”的逻辑关系出发．以农民养老的经济依赖途径为切入点。利用Multinomial Logistic回归模型，实证分析了农民养老的脆弱性及其影响因素。结果显示，那些同时具备女性、年龄较大、养儿防老观念比较强、家庭收入比较低、没有儿子、家庭整劳力比较少、纯农户和所在村经济情况比较差特征的农民，是依赖性最强的农民，他们面临的养老脆弱性程度也最高。由于现实生活中。全部具备上述所有条件的农民毕竟是少数。但农村社会政策刺定部门可以根据农民满足上述条件的多寡．来判断其养老脆弱性程度的高低。并以此为依据选择农村社会政策的重点关注对象。     

党的三代领导集体关于民族与国家安全问题的论述

中国共产党自从成立以来就非常重视民族问题,尤其是重视解决民族与国家安全问题。本文从以毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民为核心的三代领导集体关于“民族与国家安全问题”的论述出发,总结了建国以来我党在处理这一问题中的决策、理论和成功的经验．     

Growth and Heat Resistance Kinetic Variation Among Various Isolates of Salmonella and its Application to Risk Assessment

The abilities of cells of a particular type of bacteria to leave lag phase and begin the process of dividing or surviving heat treatment can depend on the serotypes or strains of the bacteria. This article reports an investigation of serotype-specific differences in growth and heat resistance kinetics of clinical and food isolates of Salmonella. Growth kinetics at 19 degrees C and 37 degrees C were examined in brain heart infusion broth and heat resistance kinetics for 60 degrees C were examined in beef gravy using a submerged coil heating apparatus. Estimates of the parameters of the growth curves suggests a small between-serotype variance of the growth kinetics. However, for inactivation, the results suggest a significant between-serotype effect on the asymptotic D-values, with an estimated between-serotype CV of about 20%. In microbial risk assessment, predictive microbiology is used to estimate growth and inactivation of pathogens. Often the data used for estimating the growth or inactivation kinetics are based on measurements on a cocktail--a mixture of approximately equal proportions of several serotypes or strains of the pathogen being studied. The expected growth or inactivation rates derived from data using cocktails are biased, reflecting the characteristics of the fastest growing or most heat resistant serotype of the cocktail. In this article, an adjustment to decrease this possible bias in a risk assessment is offered. The article also presents discussion of the effect on estimating growth when stochastic assumptions are incorporated in the model. In particular, equations describing the variation of relative growth are derived, accounting for the stochastic variations of the division of cells. For small numbers of cells, the expected value of the relative growth is not an appropriate "representative" value for actual relative growths that might occur.     

论默许恐怖分子活动国家的国家责任

"9.11"事件后联合国安理会反恐决议填补了现行国际法的空白,加诸各国不得默许恐怖分子在其境内活动的义务。美国完全可以依法追究阿富汗的国家责任,以有效打击国际恐怖主义。今后,各国都应严格遵守安理会决议确立的国际法义务,坚决制止某些国家默许恐怖分子在其境内活动,同时还需加强合作,进一步完善反恐国际法。     

挑战亚洲金融风暴:中国宏观社会经济政策走势前瞻

本文在对亚洲金融风暴成因进行简要分析的基础上 ,联系发达资本主义国家的经验 ,结合中国社会经济的现状 ,从政府职能、产业政策、收入分配、社会保障、经济预期等五个方面探讨中国面对亚洲金融风暴的应对策略     

“国家生态安全”与社会经济发展

"国家生态安全"作为"非传统安全"是"传统安全"观念的发展,它有助于加速全球化这一作为国际社会发展标志性特征的认识。而"国家生态安全"作为对"非传统安全"的一种界定与表述,是当前相关理论研究领域的一种趋势,也是社会经济可持续、稳定发展的现实迫切需求。