Pascal’s and Tabarrok’s Wagers

In a recent paper A. Tabarrok [Believe in Pascal’s Wager? Have I Got a Deal for You!, Theory and Decision 48, 123--128, 2000] argued that a believer who accepts Pascal’s Wager should in addition accept payment of any given fee in return for a given increase in the probability of reaching God. However the conclusion is obtained from manipulations of infinities which are not valid in an expected utility model. In this note, an alternative model is formulated in which Tabarrok’s conclusion can be obtained.     

多元随机风险传染模型及沪铜场内外风险传染实证

为了更合适的度量金融市场间风险传染整体效果,本文通过理论分析构造了风险传染方程,其风险传染项相比已有的系数风险传染项与协方差时变风险传染项更具实际意义,并借鉴多元GARCH建模原理建立了结合均值溢出、波动溢出与风险传染项的多元随机风险传染模型,设计了模型的MCMC迭代求解算法,满足解的完整性。最后,运用模型对沪铜场内外风险传染现象进行了实证,实证结果不仅验证了一系列已有研究结论,同时还给出了一些符合期货实情的新结论,如金融市场间风险传染类似金融市场波动存在集聚效应、沪铜与沪铝市场存在风险传染交替变化现象、市场行情的变化能提前反映于风险传染效果中等。这也充分表明新模型的有效性、实用性以及优越性。     

人力资本理论与人力资源开发的综合创新

本文主要立足于当今我国人力资源开发的现实需求,以人力资本理论作为理论出发点,探索了现阶段人力资源开发的约束因素和综合创新的价值,并提出了综合创新的思路和对策。     

山东省农民科技需求与应用状况调查分析

农民是农业科技的应用主体,农民的科技需求是农业科技研发、推广与应用的前提与依据。通过对山东省农民科技需求的调查发现,农民科技需求强烈,科技需求趋于多样化;受需求方和供给方双方面的影响,农民科技应用效率整体偏低,反映出农村科技供需不平衡。需要提高农民科技文化素质,增加农民收入,提高农民科技的有效需求;引入以农民需求为取向的农村科技供给决策机制,建立多元化的农业科技供给体系,满足农民科技需求,提高农业科技应用效率。     

多元文化下的区域发展——中国西部民族区域发展研究

中国是一个多民族的国家。各民族在长期适应地理环境的过程中形成了与汉族不完全相同的独特文化。由于文化背景不同 ,中国西部民族地区的发展模式不同于汉族和西方国家。结合知识文明与可持续发展状况 ,我国西部民族地区应寻求文化、生态、经济系统发展的模式 ,应从文化、经济、生态整合的角度 ,走以质取胜的道路。     

Characteristics of homeless jail inmates: Implications for social work

This study set out to validate the hypothesis (belief) that homeless people were likely to commit minor offenses as solutions to their conditions. Jails, and maybe prisons, would provide three meals a day, a place to sleep, and minimal health care-especially during the winter months. Instead, the data did not support the hypothesis. Contrary to the reported practices of some homeless people in Colorado who are described as committing non-serious but timed offenses to go to jail, it found a homeless population in jail who give a literal interpretation to the political phrase the invisible people. They were not in jail because they were homeless, but instead they were in jail for serious crimes (murder, rape, drugs, robbery) and their homelessness was a side fact. Since it was not likely that this group would seek to address or resolve their homelessness, it was recommended that jail social workers identify their needs to them, track them into social welfare networks, with a designated contact person, prior to their release.     

Robust Tests Against Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models

In this paper, we consider testing for linearity against a well-known class of regime switching models known as the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models. Apart from the model selection issues, one reason for interest in testing for linearity in time-series models is that non-linear models such as the STAR are considerably more difficult to use. This testing problem is non-standard because a nuisance parameter becomes unidentified under the null hypothesis. In this paper, we further explore the class of tests proposed by Luukkonen, Saikonnen and Terasvirta (1988). Luukkonen et al . (1988) proposed LM tests for linearity against STAR models. A potential difficulty here is that the linear approximation introduces high leverage points, and hence outliers are likely to be quite influential. To overcome this difficulty, we use the same approximating linear model of Luukkonen et al . (1988), but we apply Wald and F -tests based on l 1 - and bounded influence estimates. The efficiency gains of this procedure cannot be easily deduced from the existing theoretical results because the test is based on a misspecified model under H 1 . Therefore, we carried out a simulation study, in which we observed that the robust tests have desirable properties compared to the test of Luukkonen et al . (1988) for a range of error distributions in the STAR model, in particular the robust tests have power advantages over the LM test.     

未成年学生在校期间人身损害的学校赔偿责任

从当前学校管理现状看,根据民法中过错责任理论的分析,学生在校期间受到损害时,学校及学生各自应负的责任及学校免除责任要具备一定的条件,其条件的界定有助于规范学校对学生监护管理工作,切实提高学生自我保护意识,树立遵纪守法的观念.     

尼采对基督教的批判

尼采全面、深刻地批判了基督教 ,着重谴责它否定人生的虚无主义本质。尼采确立了肯定人生 ,肯定生命 ,尤其是它的非理性方面的基本原则。尼采对基督教的批判在西方文化史上占有重要地位     

后现代文化思潮与文化建构主义心理学

文化建构主义心理学作为后现代文化思潮的产物及组成部分,实现了心理学中的文化意识的衍变。文化心理学认为心理是文化的投射,而文化建构主义认为心理与文化是相互建构的关系。本文对在后现代思潮影响下这一文化意识的衍变进行简要分析。