How to build nomogram for type 2 diabetes using a naïve Bayesian classifier technique

In this study, we introduced a method for building a Bayesian nomogram and proposed an appropriate nomogram for type 2 diabetes (T2D) using data from 13,474 subjects collected from the 2013–2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) data. We identified risk factors related to T2D, proposed a visual nomogram for T2D from a naïve Bayesian classifier model, and predicted incidence rates. Additionally, we computed confidence intervals for the influence of risk factors (attributes) and verified the proposed Bayesian nomogram using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Finally, we compared logistic regression and the Bayesian nomogram for T2D. The results of the analysis of the T2D data showed that the most influential factor among all attributes in the Bayesian nomogram was age group, and the highest risk factor for T2D incidence was cardiovascular disease. Dyslipidemia and hypertension also had significant impacts on T2D incidence while the effects of sex, smoking status, and employment status were relatively small compared to those of other variables. Using the proposed Bayesian nomogram, we can easily predict the incidence rate of T2D in an individual, and treatment plans can be established based on this information.     

On detecting outliers in the Pareto distribution

In this paper, we introduce two new statistics for detecting outliers in the Pareto distribution. These new statistics are the extension of the statistics for detecting outliers in exponential and gamma distributions. In fact, we compare the power of our test statistics with the other statistics and select the best test statistic for detecting outliers in the Pareto distribution. Finally, numerical examples of different insurance claims are used to see the performance of the test.     

Computation of the Generalized F Distribution

Exact expressions for the cumulative distribution function of a random variable of the form ( α ₁ X ₁+ α ₂ X ₂)/ Y are given where X ₁, X ₂ and Y are independent chi-squared random variables. The expressions are applied to the detection of joint outliers and Hotelling's mis-specified T ² distribution.     

论T·S·艾略特在中国新诗中激起的旧诗想象

T·S·艾略特的诗歌与文学批评观念对中国现代诗歌进程产生了重要影响。通过梳理艾略特在现代汉语新诗界激起的旧诗回想，可以增进理解中国现代诗歌进程的复杂性。许多现代汉语诗人通过写作对旧诗传统进行了细入肌理的思考，新旧交错的痛苦过程，孕育了他们的旧诗辨识能力和新诗创造能力。“离弃”旧诗的新诗革命者对新旧诗关系的理解和思考，在当下汉语诗歌建设中显得更为有效。     

A Time‐Dependent Risk Assessment for Broken Compact Fluorescent Lamps

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ambient air quality guidelines are meant to limit long‐term exposures of toxins to safe levels. Unfortunately, there is little guidance for what constitutes a safe level from a one‐time (or very infrequent) short exposure(s). In the case of mercury, a review of the derivation of the EPA ambient air quality standard shows that it implicitly assumes a tissue burden model. The time dependence of the tissue burden is commonly described in terms of a half‐life, a modeling assumption that presumes that the decline in the tissue burden after a single exposure can be approximately described as an exponential decay. In this article, we use a simple exponential tissue burden model to derive a time‐dependent no observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) for mercury concentrations in air. The model predicts that tissue body burden will asymptotically approach the EPA air quality level for long exposure times, and reach workplace standard levels for exposures of a few hours. The model was used along with data on mercury levels from experimental work done by the Maine Department of Environmental Protection to evaluate the risks from a broken compact fluorescent lamp in a residential setting. Mercury levels approached the NOAEL only when the debris was left in an almost sealed room. Normal common‐sense cleaning measures: removal of debris to an outside area, and ventilation of the room for several minutes, reduced exposures to less than 1% of the NOAEL.     

流动的村庄:乡土社会的双二元格局与不确定性 ———皖东T 村的社会形态

在安徽东部T村，向城市流动的群体范围在不断扩大，村民生活方式越来越趋向二元化，流动导致了乡土社会双重二元化格局的形成。在这一格局中，农民经受着既非市民亦非农民的身份认同困惑，以及对未来预期的高不确定性。对城市和乡村的不确定预期，使得农村居民不得不通过不断的流动来增加保障。不确定性造成农民发展风险和成本的提高，同时也可能引发农民重复投资和资源的浪费。     

财政科技投入产出绩效评价指标的选择

财政科技投入产出绩效评价体系的构造过程可分为评价指标初选和指标体系完善两个阶段,在评价指标初选阶段主要使用定性分析方法,在指标体系完善阶段主要使用定量方法。结合上海市的问卷调查资料,构建出财政科技投入产出绩效评价体系,以期给实践工作带来启发和帮助。     

艾略特的“传统观”与现代文学批评

以T. S.艾略特的论文《传统与个人才能》为基础，尝试管窥艾略特独具一格的见解：“传统观”分析“陌生化”、“互文性”、“重复理论”、“影响的焦虑”等现代文学批评理论与“传统观”之间的紧密联系，并有异曲同工之妙。这一解读不仅拓展了艾略特“传统观”的深度和广度，而且证实了艾略特“传统观”具有极强的先锋性与预设性。     

页码之辨——《GB／T7714--2005》执行难的一个细节探讨

引文页码的标注，集中了《GB／T7714--2005》“执行难”的问题症结：多制式的繁杂，与传统文化传习范型有较大差别，造成作者写作时的标示困惑、读者阅读过程中的不解以及编者编辑加工文稿时的耗时费神。因而，如何使页码标注作为书写立言一个合理确凿的细节，应与其总体设置一同做到：详尽而明了易懂、涵括而操作简便——这才是一个编排规范成熟的标志。     

A table of normal integrals

Integrals of functions of the univariate, bivariate, trivariate and multivariate normal densities are given. Both indefinite and definite integrals are included.