追寻遗失的美好--解读《追风筝的人》中的生态意蕴

《追风筝的人》是阿富汗裔美国作家卡勒德·胡赛尼的第一部小说。这部小说一出版便引起世界范围的关注，胡赛尼也因此获得了联合国人道主义奖。小说中不仅有感人至深的故事情节，还蕴含着作者对战争、社会和人性的思考。本文从生态批评的角度出发，揭示小说中所描绘的战争带给自然的破坏、阿富汗社会存在的问题以及由此产生的精神失衡现象，探讨其中的生态意蕴，探寻作者独特的生态伦理思想。     

动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP测度及影响因素研究

提高城市群土地利用TFP对合理高效利用土地资源,协调好城市群经济发展、资源配置和环境保护具有重大理论和实践意义.文章运用DEA-Malmquist指数对2003—2016年动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP进行测度和时空演变分析,并利用Tobit回归模型对影响城市群土地利用TFP变化的因素进行深入研究.结果表明:从时间维度看,城市群土地利用TFP年均上升0.7％,城市群土地利用TFP增长由技术效率和技术进步"双核驱动",技术效率的提升主要与纯技术效率提升有关,规模效率是技术效率和土地利用TFP提升的瓶颈约束;从空间维度看,晋中、哈长、海峡西岸、中原、长江中游、北部湾、成渝、黔中、关中平原和兰西城市群土地利用TFP呈下降趋势,其余城市群土地利用TFP均呈上升趋势,且京津冀、呼包鄂榆、辽中南、长江三角洲、山东半岛和天山北坡城市群土地利用TFP增长为技术进步和技术效率"双核驱动";从影响因素看,人均GDP和年末金融机构人民币各项贷款余额对中国城市群土地利用TFP具有正向促进作用,城市财政支出占本市GDP的比重和人口密度具有负向阻碍作用.     

谭恩美小说《接骨师之女》的国内研究综述

华裔作家谭恩美的小说《接骨师之女》一出版就引起了国内研究者的关注。从最近十年国内公开发表的论文看，不论是文章的数量，还是文章的质量都呈现出持续发展的态势，研究者从不同的角度对作品展开解读。但是，系统回顾小说《接》的国内研究现状，不难发现，当前对该作品的研究仍然存在不少的问题：如主题内容过于集中，研究视角狭窄且多重复，研究的深度有待提高等等。如果这些问题得到妥善解决，小说《接骨师之女》仍然具有较大的研究空间，其前景也令人期待。     

民国时期杭州拱宸桥娼妓业的治理(1912-1936)

民国以来,随着近代文明的发展、妇女解放思潮的渐次兴起,娼妓的悲惨境遇备受关注。在此背景下,杭州市政府于20世纪30年代发起了一场废娼运动,虽然成果与预期相差甚远,最后重新回到对公娼核发执照、征收妓捐的治娼模式,但是政府的废娼行动与济娼措施,表达了现代化政府的执政理念,是政治文明进步的重要体现。     

浅析里克纳家庭品格教育理论及其启示

本文对里克纳《美式家庭:品质教育家长对策》一书阐述的理论及其启示加以论述。     

在传统与现代之间——20世纪40年代费孝通的英国观

费孝通英国观的形成是与他对英国民主传统的推崇与好感分不开的。尤其是在二战前后英国所表现出坚韧与不屈的民族精神,更加深了他对英国民主制度的认同。在其看来,英国民主虽历经数百年之演变,但其所蕴涵的民主精神却从未发生变化,对民意的尊重,对特权的藐视,追求社会公正公平成为英国民主传统中最核心的内容,由此也构成费孝通英国观的主要认知路径。     

禽流感风险、多元化经营与中国养禽户家庭生计研究

现有研究普遍认为禽流感的发生会对养禽户家庭生计造成严重负向冲击,而统计数据显示禽流感发生之后养禽户家禽收入显著下降,但家庭收入仍呈上升趋势。 基于农村固定观察点 2 520 个养禽户 2004—2012 年家禽养殖跟踪数据,本文采用固定效应模型,分析禽流感冲击下养禽户家庭生计变化,探讨禽流感、多元化经营与中国养禽农户家庭生计之间的关系。 结果表明,禽流感的爆发确实对家禽养殖农户生计造成了巨大的冲击,但多元化经营可以削弱禽流感对养禽户家庭经营收入的负向影响,且相比于种植业,养禽户更倾向于通过增加畜牧业投入和非农就业投入来避免禽流感造成的家庭经营收入波动。 我国现有禽流感补偿政策仅按照扑杀数量发放,为制定更为精准的扑杀补偿标准和灾后扶持政策,应关注禽流感对养禽户生计冲击的农户异质性,充分考虑养禽户多元化经营状况,扩大政策关注范围,正确引导农户进行兼业经营。     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

The disaster relief and social work after the Wenchuan earthquake in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

This paper mainly focuses on the development of disaster social work in Mainland China and the intervention of social work in disaster relief. Before the Wenchuan earthquake and in the initial stage of post-earthquake, disaster social work was mainly based on individual psychotherapy; from the earthquake to the year of 2012 in which post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction was completed, the disaster relief began to emphasise community building and integration, while the basic framework for disaster social work was also established. Social workers begin to explore the new mode of developmental and localised disaster social work. By combining with the practical experiences from disaster social work, this paper tries to highlight the dilemmas confronting disaster relief in Mainland China and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which could improve the future disaster relief system in Mainland China.