禽流感风险、多元化经营与中国养禽户家庭生计研究

现有研究普遍认为禽流感的发生会对养禽户家庭生计造成严重负向冲击,而统计数据显示禽流感发生之后养禽户家禽收入显著下降,但家庭收入仍呈上升趋势。 基于农村固定观察点 2 520 个养禽户 2004—2012 年家禽养殖跟踪数据,本文采用固定效应模型,分析禽流感冲击下养禽户家庭生计变化,探讨禽流感、多元化经营与中国养禽农户家庭生计之间的关系。 结果表明,禽流感的爆发确实对家禽养殖农户生计造成了巨大的冲击,但多元化经营可以削弱禽流感对养禽户家庭经营收入的负向影响,且相比于种植业,养禽户更倾向于通过增加畜牧业投入和非农就业投入来避免禽流感造成的家庭经营收入波动。 我国现有禽流感补偿政策仅按照扑杀数量发放,为制定更为精准的扑杀补偿标准和灾后扶持政策,应关注禽流感对养禽户生计冲击的农户异质性,充分考虑养禽户多元化经营状况,扩大政策关注范围,正确引导农户进行兼业经营。     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.     

清代喀尔喀蒙古的朝觐与其中的经济关系

清代对于漠北喀尔喀蒙古实施的朝觐制度是满蒙历史发展的一种表现,也是当时统一多民族国家巩固和发展的必要措施。喀尔喀蒙古王公对清朝的朝觐中,体现了清廷的权力,也满足了朝觐者物资需求,在朝觐中有着突出的在物资交换前提下对清朝进贡的内涵及历史意义。主要分析清朝对漠北蒙古的朝觐制度,研究了朝觐所体现的经济关系及其影响。     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

The disaster relief and social work after the Wenchuan earthquake in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

This paper mainly focuses on the development of disaster social work in Mainland China and the intervention of social work in disaster relief. Before the Wenchuan earthquake and in the initial stage of post-earthquake, disaster social work was mainly based on individual psychotherapy; from the earthquake to the year of 2012 in which post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction was completed, the disaster relief began to emphasise community building and integration, while the basic framework for disaster social work was also established. Social workers begin to explore the new mode of developmental and localised disaster social work. By combining with the practical experiences from disaster social work, this paper tries to highlight the dilemmas confronting disaster relief in Mainland China and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which could improve the future disaster relief system in Mainland China.     

忠义之气：张齐贤对宋初儒学政治文化的构建及其政治实践

宋初倡导“名节”的思想在张齐贤那里得到了明确的贯彻。他宣讲的“忠义”观念成为宋代政治文化的核心规范意识。“忠义”作为一种思想规范对相当广泛的社会层面产生着约束力，成为传统社会士大夫阶层共同的心理定式，使之由过去对功名的孜孜追求，转向道德精神的弘扬。北宋立国之后，“忠义”作为政治思想的基本原则和政治道德的主体形态，在新的时代情境中得到了特别的强调。张齐贤的政治治理思想，体现在地方治理和对外谋略两个方面，而在此两个方面他都践履了自己所倡行的“忠义”理念。     

马克思理论视阈中的“现实的人”——以《德意志意识形态》为文本考察

现实的人是马克思新哲学的出发点和落脚点，同时也是马克思对整个思想史上各种“片面人”的颠覆性阐释，是唯物史观与唯心史观和经验论决裂的标识。它不同于性恶论或性善论或既无善亦无恶论，也不同于黑格尔的“绝对精神”的人，更不同于费尔巴哈的“类”。与黑格尔思想及其青年黑格尔派和费尔巴哈等人思想交锋的过程中，马克思分别通过以所有制为轴线动态考察历史发展和以分工为轴线静态考察社会的结构性存在两条线索来阐释“现实的人”的内涵，并以生产工具为红线，对资本主义社会下“现实的人”的静态结构和动态发展予以微观透视。由此，按照唯物史观的基本立场、观点和方法来说，以经济决定政治、政治决定文化的序列构成的结构性存在来解释人才是马克思所谓的“现实的人”。     

“隃麋”考——陕西省千阳县历史地名及相关问题研究

相关历史文献、金石文字以及出土实物证明,“隃麋”是今陕西省千阳县在两汉时期的正确县名写法,《后汉书》等写作“渝麋”或“隃糜”均为传写之误。隃麋墨,产地为隃麋、材质为松烟、形制为丸状或锭状。关于隃麋墨的记载,最早出自东汉蔡质《汉官典职仪式选用》,而不是最常被引用的东汉应劭《汉官仪》。     

21世纪中国学界辽金经济史研究回顾与展望

辽金经济史一直是学者研究的重点,21世纪以来学界在辽金农业概况、发展原因、土地制度,畜牧业结构,货币种类、税收制度及贸易几个方面研究深入,取得了丰硕的成果。但对区域农业特点、土地买卖及粮食供给、辽金农业思想史等问题缺乏深入研究。     

试论辽代节日朝贺制度的建构

辽朝享国二百余年,《辽史·百官志》载其属国达七十八个,在如此庞大的帝国势力范围内能够稳固其统治,不仅是因为契丹拥有强悍的军事力量,更重要的是辽朝建构了有效控御四方的节日朝贺体系。辽代境内、境外、绝域之国等朝贺体系的架构,体现了辽代朝贺制度的蕃汉结合、重威辅恩、礼仪不完备等特点。为了更好地运行朝贺制度,辽代还设立了敌烈麻都司、宣徽院、驿馆、四方馆、地方府州等专门负责机构。节日朝贺制度作为朝贡制度的重要组成部分,渐趋凸显其在辽朝处理内外关系的作用,并逐渐形成了以辽为中心的东亚朝贡体系。