Decomposing the predictive performance of the moving average trading rule of technical analysis: the contribution of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns

The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive performance of the moving average (MA) trading rule and find out the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns. Data from the General Index of the Athens Stock Exchange, from the Standard and Poor-500 Index of the New York Stock Exchange and from the Austrian Traded Index of the Vienna Stock Exchange are filtered by linear filters so as the resulting simulated ‘returns’ exhibit no serial correlation. Applying MA trading rules to both the original and the simulated indices and using a new statistical testing procedure that takes into account the sensitivity of the performance of the trading rule as a function of the length of the MA it is found that the predictive performance of the trading rule is clearly weakened when applied to the simulated indices indicating that a substantial part of the rule's predictive performance is due to the exploitation of linear dependencies in stock returns. This weakening is uneven; in general the shorter the MA length the more pronounced the attenuation.     

Balanced and partially balanced incomplete block designs with autocorrelation errors

The paper aims to find variance balanced and variance partially balanced incomplete block designs when observations within blocks are autocorrelated and we call them BIBAC and PBIBAC designs. Orthogonal arrays of type I and type II when used as BIBAC designs have smaller average variance of elementary contrasts of treatment effects compared to the corresponding Balanced Incomplete Block (BIB) designs with homoscedastic, uncorrelated errors. The relative efficiency of BIB designs compared to BIBAC designs depends on the block size k and the autocorrelation ρ and is independent of the number of treatments. Further this relative efficiency increases with increasing k. Partially balanced incomplete block designs with autocorrelated errors are introduced using partially balanced incomplete block designs and orthogonal arrays of type I and type II.     

Assessing direct and indirect seasonal decomposition in state space

The problem of whether seasonal decomposition should be used prior to or after aggregation of time series is quite old. We tackle the problem by using a state-space representation and the variance/covariance structure of a simplified one-component model. The variances of the estimated components in a two-series system are compared for direct and indirect approaches and also to a multivariate method. The covariance structure between the two time series is important for the relative efficiency. Indirect estimation is always best when the series are independent, but when the series or the measurement errors are negatively correlated, direct estimation may be much better in the above sense. Some covariance structures indicate that direct estimation should be used while others indicate that an indirect approach is more efficient. Signal-to-noise ratios and relative variances are used for inference.     

中国省际能源效率影响因素的实证分析

我国不同地区能源利用效率存在较大的差异，从时间趋势上来看，变动也比较复杂。为找到这一现象的深层次原因，利用1995—2008年中国29个省份的面板数据进行实证分析，结果发现对外开放程度、政府控制力和教育水平对能源效率的改善有显著正效应，而能源消费结构和产业结构与能源效率则负相关关系，技术进步变量以及高新技术产业比重对能源效率的影响不显著     

校长领导行为对小学教师集体效能的影响

为了探讨校长领导行为与小学教师集体效能之间的关系，采用校长领导行为描述问卷与教师集体效能量表作为研究工具，随机调查了37所学校的466名小学教师。结论发现：1．关心人与教师集体效能之间存在显著正相关，但关心任务与教师集体效能之间的相关未达到显著水平。2．在对教师集体效能的回归模型中，关心人进入到预测教师集体效能总分和教学任务分析的回归模型，而校长领导行为对教学能力评价具有一定的预测作用。     

Experimental designs and their efficiencies for spatially correlated observations in two dimensions

Optimality of experimental designs for spatially correlated observations is investigated.come two dimensional correlation structures are discussed and an attempt has been made to find optimal or nearly optimal design for each sitution.The solution lend to designs similar to that used for repeated measurements.The relative efficiency of the proposed designs in comparison to randomized latin square designs is tabulated for some cases.     

高校“课堂教学低效”原因及解决策略

信息化时代，社会发展对人才提出了新的需求。而众多高等学府的课堂教学更新的速度远远跟不上时代发展的脉搏。从教学内容到教学模式虽有所调整，但无实质的变化，“课堂教学低效”成为制约高素质人才培养的“瓶颈”。本文分析了高校“课堂教学低效”的原因，并提出了解决问题的策略，以期提高高校课堂教学的质量。     

Smooth goodness of fit tests for the weibull distribution with singly censored data

The smooth goodness of fit tests are generalized to singly censored data and applied to the problem of testing Weibull (or extreme value) fit. Smooth tests, Pearson-type tests, and the spacings tests proposed by Mann, Schemer, and Fertig (1973) are compared on the basis of local asymptotic relative efficiency with respect to the asymptotic best test against generalized gamma alternatives, The smooth test of order one Is found to be most efficient for the generalized gamma alternatives.     

浅析项目化教学模式下企业参与人才培养的效能

项目化教学模式下实现人才培养目标需要企业的效能,文章从能力的构成即态度、知识、技能三个方面分析了企业效能的内容以及企业效能得以实现的内部资源,对项目化教学模式实施与推广过程中如何更有效地发挥企业的资源优势进行了探索与研究。     

高校组织文化对研究生培养体系效率影响研究——以北京航空航天大学研究生培养状况为例

要增强组织效率,提高组织的综合竞争能力,在当今时代已不可能单纯依靠技术、货币等物质因素,还要发挥其他各种非物质因素的作用,其中,组织文化就是非常重要的非物质因素。因此,探讨组织文化与组织效率的关系是很有必要的。文章首先定性分析了组织文化因素对高校研究生教育培养体系组织效率的影响,然后通过建立组织文化价值取向模型,进行实际的问卷调查研究并分析所采集的数据,总结并改进了组织文化对高校研究生培养教育体系组织效率影响定量分析模型。