The duration of unemployment in Russia

This paper uses longitudinal survey data to assess factors affecting the duration of unemployment in Russia. We examine four types of marginalised labour force participants, according to ILO guidelines and survey responses, and we estimate duration models for each type. It turns out that the sets of characteristics with the strongest effects on the duration are remarkably similar across the different unemployment definitions and model specifications. Therefore, despite the formidable practical measurement problems, problematic groups of individuals can actually be identified. Received: 27 January 1999/Accepted: 27 January 2000     

尉犁地名和柔然源流考

“尉犁”(包括天山北麓的“于娄”、“于赖”)地名源于(J)yrgir部落之名。“柔然”(虫柔蠕,蠕蠕,芮芮,茹茹)、“於尼讙”、“预龙”、“诸洛固”等部落联合体(政权)或部落名是(J)yrgir的不同音译形式。汉宣帝时该部曾移居焉耆及尉犁等地。相对稳定的社会环境,为该部的发展奠定了基础。在汉地先进的铁制农具、兵器、相关的制度文化以及塔里木盆地土著印欧语居民文化的影响下,亦加快了其社会发展进程。这是该部在两汉以后能得以崛起的重要原因。柔然是突厥语族群中最早信仰佛教的部落,柔然汗国还使用汉语年号,表明该部虽远在西域,却受到了汉文化的深刻影响。     

艺术家的超我、自我和本我——托马斯·曼小说《死于威尼斯》评析

以弗洛伊德的人格心理学理论，通过对小说《死于威尼斯》主人公的心理活动和内心世界的探索和分析，说明艺术家如何处理超我、自我和本我的关系，是一个带根本性的问题。     

Considerations on group-wise identical designs for linear mixed models

We consider a general class of mixed models, where the individual parameter vector is composed of a linear function of the population parameter vector plus an individual random effects vector. The linear function can vary for the different individuals. We show that the search for optimal designs for the estimation of the population parameter vector can be restricted to the class of group-wise identical designs, i.e., for each of the groups defined by the different linear functions only one individual elementary design has to be optimized. A way to apply the result to non-linear mixed models is described.     

《万有引力之虹》的隐喻结构与人文关怀

托马斯·品钦的后现代小说《万有引力之虹》中包含"火箭"、"性"、"彩虹"三个主要隐喻,其构成的隐喻结构成为小说主题要素的依托和潜结构,三个隐喻背后的神秘本体既相互制约,又相互映衬、相互影响,喻示着作者对后现代美国社会的深刻分析和冷静思考.通过对小说进行结构性分析的方法,可以透视品钦在"冷冰冰的叙述"中所蕴涵的人文关怀,在剖析美国社会现实的同时,也赋予我们一个审视当代世界的全新视角.     

Optimal discrimination designs for exponential regression models

We investigate optimal designs for discriminating between exponential regression models of different complexity, which are widely used in the biological sciences; see, e.g., Landaw [1995. Robust sampling designs for compartmental models under large prior eigenvalue uncertainties. Math. Comput. Biomed. Appl. 181–187] or Gibaldi and Perrier [1982. Pharmacokinetics. Marcel Dekker, New York]. We discuss different approaches for the construction of appropriate optimality criteria, and find sharper upper bounds on the number of support points of locally optimal discrimination designs than those given by Caratheodory's Theorem. These results greatly facilitate the numerical construction of optimal designs. Various examples of optimal designs are then presented and compared to different other designs. Moreover, to protect the experiment against misspecifications of the nonlinear model parameters, we adapt the design criteria such that the resulting designs are robust with respect to such misspecifications and, again, provide several examples, which demonstrate the advantages of our approach.     

Unemployment Insurance and Underemployment

Should unemployment insurance (UI) systems provide coverage for underemployed job seekers? Based on a statistical analysis of Norwegian unemployment spells, we conclude that the answer to this question is yes. Allowing insured job seekers to retain partial UI benefits during periods of insufficient part‐time work not only reduces UI expenditures during the part‐time work period, but it also unambiguously reduces the time until a regular self‐supporting job is found. Probable explanations are that even small temporary part‐time jobs provide access to useful vacancy information and that such jobs are used by employers as a screening device when hiring from the unemployment pool.     

后现象学思想解惑--唐·伊德技术哲学的实用主义与解释学维度

用胡塞尔先验现象学的立场来理解作为技术哲学的后现象学,这是对唐·伊德思想的一种误解。由于在悬置和变更等基本概念上与胡塞尔现象学出入甚大,后现象学只能算是一种修正主义的现象学;在哲学观和技术观上,后现象学更多地是汲取了杜威实用主义的观点;利科的解释学及对文本概念的广义理解,决定了后现象学必然是一种以探究人工物的意义为旨归的物的解释学。在理解伊德技术哲学时,实用主义和解释学是两个重要、但被忽略的维度。     

Emergence of entrepreneurial behaviour: The role of age-based self-image

This study introduces an individual’s perception of their entrepreneurial potential in terms of their age (age-based self-image) to complement chronological age as a predictor of entrepreneurial behaviour. The principal hypothesis is that a positive age-based self-image enhances the likelihood of individuals turning their intention to start a business into actual behaviour. The empirical analysis based on data collected on the general adult population of Finland in 2011 and 2012 (n = 672) supports this hypothesis. The analysis further shows that this positive effect is independent of the individual’s chronological age, and it is thus applicable to both age groups that are under-represented in entrepreneurship: ‘youngsters’ and ‘seniors’. Promoting the development of a positive age-based self-image is a prospective policy option for fostering entrepreneurship among younger and older age groups. More in-depth research, especially concerning the antecedents of positive age-based self-image, is required for the effectiveness of such policy interventions.     

遗失的美好--从哈代诗歌解读其人生哲学

研究指出,托马斯·哈代一直以小说家的身份受到各界的关注,但从20世纪70年代起,哈代的诗歌受到越来越多的读者和批评家的注意。他的诗歌既没有维多利亚时代的风尚,也没有现代主义的极端激进,而是将两者巧妙地结合起来,这些思想深刻、内容充实的诗篇为处于浪漫主义末流的沉闷的维多利亚诗坛吹进了一股清新的风。本文试图从诗人的诗歌主题和内容着手,分别从哈代的爱情观、人生观、自然观三个方面来追寻文字背后其独特的人生哲学,追寻作者心目中那遗失的美好。