A Bayesian Analysis for Accelerated Lifetime Tests Under an Exponential Power Law Model with Threshold Stress

In this paper, we present a Bayesian methodology for modelling accelerated lifetime tests under a stress response relationship with a threshold stress. Both Laplace and MCMC methods are considered. The methodology is described in detail for the case when an exponential distribution is assumed to express the behaviour of lifetimes, and a power law model with a threshold stress is assumed as the stress response relationship. We assume vague but proper priors for the parameters of interest. The methodology is illustrated by a accelerated failure test on an electrical insulation film.     

固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型的快速有效估计

本文将最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM) 和二次推断函数法(QIF) 相结合，为个体内具有相关结构的固定效应部分线性变系数面板模型提供了一种新的快速估计方法；在一定的正则条件下，论证了参数估计量的渐近正态性和非参数估计量的收敛速度；采用Monte Carlo模拟考察了估计方法在有限样本下的表现并将估计技术应用于现实数据分析。该方法不仅保证了估计的有效性和统计推断力，而且程序运行速度得到较大幅度提升。     

金融周期、金融波动与中国经济增长——基于省际面板门槛模型的研究

本文应用面板门槛模型,研究了2005-2017年间我国31个省（市、自治区）金融波动对经济增长的影响。研究发现,随着金融周期所处阶段的变化,金融波动对经济增长会产生显著的非对称性双重门槛效应,主要体现为如下两点：首先,金融周期处于膨胀期、平稳期和萧条期时金融波动对经济增长会产生负向影响,但从影响系数值的大小来看,处于膨胀期时最大,是后两者的2倍之多,处于平稳期时最小且并不显著;其次,分区域的稳健性检验表明,金融发展水平高的区域双重门槛值出现得早,且两个门槛值间的区间要比金融发展水平低的区域宽28%。这些结论说明,经济增长对于金融波动的容忍弹性会随着金融周期所处的阶段而变化,金融发展水平的提高会放大经济增长对金融波动的容忍区间,但也会加速金融周期处于膨胀期时爆发金融危机的可能性,这使得当前我国存在着进一步发展金融水平和严控金融风险的矛盾,对此本文也提出了相应的政策建议。     

浅谈英汉广告中的双关

本文从语言学的角度来阐明广告及其用途,着重从语音双关和语义双分析双关在广告中的广泛运用,以及它所起的说服作用和幽默、深刻的效果。     

ICT投资、互联网普及和全要素生产率

本文使用DEA-Malmquist指数方法对2002-2012年我国分行业全要素生产率、技术效率与技术进步进行测算,并基于我国地区投入产出表构建了ICT资本投入强度。在此基础上,本文就ICT投资对生产率的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现,ICT投资对全要素生产率提升具有积极作用,并且主要通过ICT投资促进技术效率提升实现。面板门限回归模型的结果显示,只有达到一定互联网普及率时,ICT投资促进技术效率提升的作用才显现,并在高互联网普及率时进一步增强;但在高互联网普及率下,ICT 投资对技术进步存在抑制作用,在全要素生产率层面表现为ICT 投资的促进作用消失。因此,现实的ICT 投资应重视通过信息化管理提升行业资源的有效利用能力,以最大化技术效率对全要素生产率的贡献;应充分考虑不同行业和地区的互联网普及程度,以深度激发“连接经济”对于释放ICT效能的互补性作用;还应注意配套相应产业政策,以减轻互联网发展对技术进步的阻碍作用。     

高层管理团队内部社会资本、团队冲突和决策效果的关系——研究综述与理论分析框架

反映在结构因素、关系因素和认知因素三个维度上的高管团队内部社会资本为决策信息的交换和共享提供了机会、意愿和能力,有利于团队内部形成建设性的冲突模式,促进决策效果的提高.本文以团队冲突为中介变量,建立了高管团队内部社会资本与决策效果的关系的理论框架,提出了研究命题,并对企业高管团队内部社会资本的培育提出建议.     

论大学英语课堂评估方式及其对教学的反拨作用

适时、适量、适度的大学英语课堂评估能有效地促进大学英语教学.大学英语课堂评估的形式可分为测试性与非测试性两类,非测试性方式有课堂观察、学习档案、日志等,在当前比较注重学生英语运用能力的教学中,非测试手段尤为重要.在测试性方式中,随堂测试、诊断测试、成绩测试等都可选用.如果进行得恰当,课堂评估对教学会产生多方面的积极反拨作用.     

Employee absence,age and tenure: A study of nonlinear effects and trivariate models

Multiple regression techniques were used to explore the nature of the relationships between age, tenure and absence in 2417 British local government workers drawn from three work groups. The data were collected from organizational records and included measures of both non-certified absence and medically certified absence. Linear and curvilinear associations among age, tenure and absence were examined. The possible moderating or mediating role of tenure in the relationship between age and absence was subsequently analysed. The data revealed linear relationships between age and absence that were negative for non-certified absence and positive for certified absence. In contrast, curvilinear relationships were found between tenure and absence that were U-shaped for noncertified absence and inverse U-shaped for certified absence. Tenure was found to moderate but not to mediate the relationship between age and absence. The implications of the results are discussed in the context of the changing age and career paths of the workforce, and of methodological issues in absence research.     

Distribution Channel Strategies for a Manufacturer with Complementary Products

In this article, we consider distribution channel strategies for an incumbent manufacturer who produces two complementary products and must determine whether or not to have another company to sell its products. We identify factors that affect the manufacturer's motivation to use dual‐channel distribution. Our results show that both complementarity between complements and product substitutability between firms influence the manufacturer's channel strategy. We find that if the potential entrant does not produce the complement of the primary product, a higher complementary effect for the complement will weaken the motivation of the incumbent to add an indirect channel. We also find that the incumbent has a stronger incentive to add the indirect channel when a product's substitutability is high. Furthermore, we show that when the two channels have the same pricing power, the incumbent has a stronger incentive to sell through the indirect channel in a higher pricing power environment.     

学生授课PK法在大学课堂教学中的运用

大学课堂大多以教师讲授为主,很难听到学生的观点与异议,学生的主动性与积极性难以激发,学习效果受到严重影响。本文提出一种提高大学课堂学习效果的学生授课PK法,这种方法将改变教师一贯唱主角的教学模式,同时提高学生参与学习的主动性、积极性。