试论儒家文化对我国人口与计划生育的影响

本文本着批判继承祖国文化遗产的宗旨 ,以《四书五经》及儒家其他书籍为研究对象 ,重点探讨和分析了儒家文化对我国人口与计划生育产生的正负面影响 ,并提出了消除其负面影响的相应对策     

产业结构升级对城乡收入差距的门槛效应分析

综合借鉴前人的研究成果,本文将产业结构升级、城镇化进程和城乡收入差距三者联系起来,初步判断产业结构升级对城乡收入差距的影响是非线性的;然后采用2005-2018年我国省级面板数据,以城镇化率为门槛变量,对此进行了实证检验。结果显示:产业结构升级与城乡收入差距之间存在明显的非线性关系,前者对后者的影响具有显著的双门槛效应,当城镇化水平处于初级阶段时,产业结构合理化和高级化扩大了城乡收入差距;当城镇化水平越过第一门槛值进入中级阶段后,产业结构合理化的影响减弱为不显著,而产业结构高级化仍在显著扩大城乡收入差距;当城镇化水平越过第二门槛值进入高级阶段后,产业结构合理化和高级化都表现为显著缩小城乡收入差距。通过剔除样本中的极端值、替换被解释变量和核心解释变量的代理变量,进行稳健性检验,上述结论依然成立。另外,分地区来看,东部、东北和西部地区的产业结构升级对城乡收入差距的影响同样存在显著的双门槛效应,但不同区域的表现不尽相同,东部和东北地区的门槛效应均表现为倒“U”型;西部地区则“慢半拍”,尚处于倒“U”型曲线的左侧;中部地区则仅存在以城镇化率为门槛变量的单门槛效应。文章分析了其中的原 因,并给出了政策含义。     

Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment With an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This article develops critical values to test the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of stationarity with asymmetric adjustment. Specific attention is paid to threshold and momentum threshold autoregressive processes. The standard Dickey–Fuller tests emerge as a special case. Within a reasonable range of adjustment parameters, the power of the new tests is shown to be greater than that of the corresponding Dickey–Fuller test. The use of the tests is illustrated using the term structure of interest rates. It is shown that the movements toward the long-run equilibrium relationship are best estimated as an asymmetric process.     

关于高校举办多媒体教学比赛的探讨

本文分析了高校举办多媒体教学比赛的可行性和必要性 ,并结合本校开展多媒体教学比赛的具体情况与效果 ,探讨了高校多媒体教学比赛的举办方式、组织与实施细节、评估指标体系等 ,并提出了独到的见解     

Threshold Theory and Social Work Education

Critical reflection is a concept in social work education that holds a significant place—it provides both foundational theoretical ideas about the practice of social work, and is also a process used in career-long learning. Understanding critical reflection as a threshold theory concept—a higher education learning and teaching concept—providing a framework which assists educators in teaching critical reflection. Threshold theory identifies certain concepts as foundational within a discipline—these are transformative in profoundly altering the way students understand the subject. As with critical reflection, they are also integrative, conceptually difficult or ‘troublesome’ and difficult to forget.

The intrinsic nature of critical reflection makes its use as a conceptual model in practice a complex task: it requires the integration of theoretical knowledge, in a multiple-step methodology. Students must fully engage with the process, in identifying the impact of their lived experience, values and beliefs on their practice, as well as power, social structures and influential discourses. This article argues that threshold theory assists educators in understanding the nature of learning that is required for students to master critical reflection in social work education     

The impact of sense of coherence and high-demand/low-control job environment on self-reported health,burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators

Sense of Coherence (SOC) is a new concept belonging to a salutogenic paradigm, proposing to explain health as contrasted to disease, a pathogenic paradigm. The Job Demand-Control (JDC) model of job stress suggests that the combination of high job demands and low job control, defined as job strain, is strongly associated with adverse health consequences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between SOC and the JDC model in assessment of negative job effects within three pathogenically defined contexts: self-reported health, burnout and psychophysiological stress indicators, assessing the explanatory value of SOC for such variables. The study was conducted with 103 employees of social-welfare and social-insurance agencies in Sweden. A questionnaire related to job conditions, health and burnout was administered, and blood samples were collected and analysed for serum concentrations of cortisol, prolactin and immunoglobulin G. Multiple-regression models were calculated including variables from all three contexts. In the analyses, a distinction was made between emotional job strain and quantitative job strain. The SOC interacted with emotional job strain, but the interaction also increased the independent effect of emotional job strain. The independent effect of SOC disappeared in most models when interaction was included. It is concluded that studies of job strain-effects according to the JDC model should include the SOC as an interaction factor.     

新型城镇化的经济增长效应分析——基于我国省际2000-2011年的经验证据

本文根据新型城镇化的内涵构建了综合评价指标体系,对2000—2011年我国30个省份（西藏除外）的新型城镇化发展水平进行了综合测算,在此基础上探讨了新型城镇化的经济增长效应。研究结果表明,新型城镇化对消费、投资和外向型经济以及经济结构都具有积极正向推动作用,按由强到弱依次为投资、消费、外向型经济以及经济结构,并且新型城镇化对东、中、西部三大区域的增长效应具有明显的地域差异性特征。     

二维一阶TAR模型系数估计的渐近正态性

本文讨论了二维一队门限自回归模型系数的最小二乘估计，并通过模型所构成的Markov链的遍历性，得到了此估计的渐近正态性。     

Predictor distribution and forecast accuracy of threshold models

In the present paper the predictor distribution of a SETAR (Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive) model (Tong and Lim, 1980) has been investigated when the lead time is greater than the threshold delay.After a brief presentation of the model under study, some relevant aspects of the density forecasts are shown highlighting how they can be used to generate more accurate predictions and to estimate an approximation of the probability density function of the SETAR predictors. The performances of competing predictors have been evaluated through a simulation study and an application to financial market data of the daily Nikkey 300 stock market returns.