环境承载阀值、环境质量与EKC关系研究

环境库兹涅茨曲线阐述了经济增长与环境质量变化之间的关系。由于环境库兹涅茨曲线源于实证研究．受到了很多质疑。本文旨在总结国内外已有的研究成果和经验,从两个角度对环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性提出质疑。首先,环境库兹涅茨曲线存在的前提是不存在环境承载阀值;其次,研究区域必须具有经济意义。只有满足这两个条件,才有可能存在环境库兹涅茨曲线。本文从一个新的视角研究了污染与收入之间的关系．提出相关的政策建议。     

Foreign Exchange Intervention by the Bank of Japan: Bayesian Analysis Using a Bivariate Stochastic Volatility Model

A bivariate stochastic volatility model is employed to measure the effect of intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on daily returns and volume in the USD/YEN foreign exchange market. Missing observations are accounted for, and a data-based Wishart prior for the precision matrix of the errors to the transition equation that is in line with the likelihood is suggested. Empirical results suggest there is strong conditional heteroskedasticity in the mean-corrected volume measure, as well as contemporaneous correlation in the errors to both the observation and transition equations. A threshold model is used for the BOJ reaction function, which is estimated jointly with the bivariate stochastic volatility model via Markov chain Monte Carlo. This accounts for endogeneity between volatility in the market and the BOJ reaction function, something that has hindered much previous empirical analysis in the literature on central bank intervention. The empirical results suggest there was a shift in behavior by the BOJ, with a movement away from a policy of market stabilization and toward a role of support for domestic monetary policy objectives. Throughout, we observe “leaning against the wind” behavior, something that is a feature of most previous empirical analysis of central bank intervention. A comparison with a bivariate EGARCH model suggests that the bivariate stochastic volatility model produces estimates that better capture spikes in in-sample volatility. This is important in improving estimates of a central bank reaction function because it is at these periods of high daily volatility that central banks more frequently intervene.     

Behavioral processes and egg-laying decisions of the bean weevil, Callosobruchus maculatus

Empirical studies of behavioral processes were designed in a seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, to distinguish between two alternative tactical models, namely, comparison tactics and threshold tactics of seed choice, and also to deduce the behavioral rule of its oviposition decisions. Search sequences and the oviposition process of the female bruchid beetle were observed and recorded. Analyzing data of the search sequence showed that the female bruchid beetle repeatedly encountered seeds randomly and tended to oviposit on a newly encountered seed in an ovposition bout. These results contradict the usual comparison models, which predict that the female will return to choose any one of the previously encountered seeds after sampling. In addition, the oviposition decision (rejection or acceptance of an encountered seed to oviposit) was analyzed with a generalized linear modeling (GLIM) technique. Modeling showed that the probability of accepting a seed with different numbers of eggs on it changed during her egg-laying process. This evidence supports the idea that the female is using a threshold tactic and that her acceptance threshold is being adjusted by experience gained during the egg-laying process. The analysis of statistical modeling also showed that both the time since the last oviposition and the number of eggs which had been laid by the female had a significant effect on the probability of accepting seeds with different numbers of eggs. Therefore, a time measuring system and the physiological state variable, e.g., eggload of the female, should be included in the behavioral rule to explore how the female makes her decision in the egg-laying process and to examine the importance of choice behavior as a component of selection and adaptation. Received: May 8, 1998 / Accepted: September 20, 1999     

Racism as a threshold concept: examining learning in a ‘diversity requirement’ course

This article frames racism as a threshold concept and, using qualitative data from written coursework, examines student learning of that concept in a racially diverse college course. The data suggest scaffolding learning and using real-world applications correlate to student mastery of the threshold concept of racism. Findings also suggest that students of color, those who assessed their understandings of issues of race and racism on the first day of class as mixed (rather than expert or weak), those who took the course primarily due to interest, and upperclassmen moved more quickly toward advanced understandings of racism. Qualitative data illustrate that the ways in which the threshold concept was troublesome and transformative varies for students, particularly by race. This study answers the call for more research on the pedagogy of racism as related to the learning experiences of students of color, especially in diverse classrooms.     

新疆“十一五”期间节能政策绩效综合评价

文章对1978～2009年新疆GDP、能源生产和能源消费总量的现状进行描述,分析新疆宏观经济环境对能源消费量的影响,总结新疆"十一五"期间节能目标完成情况,预测新疆"十二五"节能目标的完成可能性,通过构建符合新疆实际的节能政策绩效评价指标体系,对新疆"十一五"期间节能政策绩效进行综合评价,并根据评价结果提出相应的对策建议,希望对"十二五"新疆节能工作有一定的指导意义。     

中国沿海与内陆间经济影响的溢出与反馈效应

本文利用1997、2007年中国8地区区域间投入产出表,测算中国沿海与内陆地区经济影响的溢出与反馈效应的动态变化。三大类系数测算结果显示：区域内乘数效应大于区域间溢出效应,区域间溢出效应大于区域间反馈效应;同时,随着时间的推移,区域内乘数效应在下降、而区域间溢出与反馈效应在上升。对比沿海与内陆地区对对方的溢出效应系数,发现沿海地区小于内陆地区,但引入规模效应后,由于沿海地区有着更大的最终产出规模,它对内陆地区的实际溢出效应大于内陆地区对它的实际溢出效应。产业层面的分析表明建筑业与机械制造、交通运输设备制造业是沿海与内陆共同的具有较大溢出效应的产业,对沿海与内陆经济发展的带动作用较强。     

农村家庭寄养模式中孤残儿童的社会适应行为效果探析——以济南市Z村家庭寄养基地为例

本文主要依据本人在济南唐王镇Z村家庭寄养基地的长期志愿服务,以及于2009年月7月对济南Z村家庭寄养基地调查的资料,从社会工作专业的角度探讨了农村家庭寄养模式中孤残儿童社会适应行为效果以及给儿童身心发展带来的影响。研究发现:农村淳朴、自然、温馨的寄养环境、富有爱心的家庭氛围对孤残儿童生活中的生活自理能力、劳动技能、心理健康发展都有着积极的意义,同时农村的环境也促使其社会适应能力、交往能力等普遍加强,并在寄养过程中使他们找回了曾经缺失的亲情和社会归属感。     

新疆矿山开采的环境效应及对策分析

矿产资源的开发利用强有力地推动了新疆的区域经济发展,同时也引发了一系列地质灾害、环境污染、生态破坏等负面的环境效应。文章系统分析了目前新疆矿山开采过程中环境效应的分类、分布特征及产生原因,初步提出了完善矿山环境管理体制、加强矿山环境保护法制建设、增强经济手段、污染治理与生态恢复、矿区废弃物综合利用五个对策建议。     

Estimation of the characteristics of a Lévy process

We consider a Lévy process that is e.g. used in finance to model stock price developments. We want to estimate the characteristics of that process, based on historical data where we assume that we have discrete, high frequency observations. We introduce a threshold estimation method and show consistency and in the case of finite activity asymptotic normality of these estimators.     

论高校公共英语分级教学中的“马太效应”

随着公共英语分级教学模式的推广,由非客观的分级标准、统一的教材以及教育者的认知误区导致的“马太效应”引起越来越多的教育者的重视。通过教学实践,对公共英语分级教学过程中产生的“马太效应”进行了详尽的分析,积极寻找能够应对“马太效应”的措施已显得迫在眉睫。