Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment

We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S. unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods. We find strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold auto-regressive model. Empirical results indicate that, once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate. One finding of particular interest is that shocks that lower the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller effect than shocks that raise the unemployment rate. This finding is consistent with unemployment rises being sudden and falls gradual.     

China’s first priority in post-war state building: A wealthy state,or a strong army?

This analysis examined causal links in China’s defence–growth nexus in 1960–2016. The results show that better growth significantly reduces military-civilian ratio and propels military reforms. The unidirectional threshold causality from growth to defence shows that the military impact on a positive change in China’s growth is little in the long term. Conversely, the growth impact of a positive change in defence has accelerated after it reaches the threshold year in 1987. This finding explains why Chinese economy stagnated when defence was prioritised and why China has risen dramatically in the Far East after three decades of fast economic growth.     

Between group variance component interval estimation for the unbalanced heteroscedastic one-way random effects model

The studied topic is motivated by the problem of interlaboratory comparisons. This paper focuses on the confidence interval estimation of the between group variance in the unbalanced heteroscedastic one-way random effects model. Several interval estimators are proposed and compared by means of the simulation study. The most recommended (safest) is the confidence interval based on Bonferroni's inequality.     

Flexible Threshold Models for Modelling Interest Rate Volatility

This paper focuses on interest rate models with regime switching and extends previous nonlinear threshold models by relaxing the assumption of a fixed number of regimes. Instead we suggest automatic model determination through Bayesian inference via the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Moreover, we allow the thresholds in the volatility to be driven not only by the interest rate but also by other economic factors. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to interest rates and other economic factors of the American economy.     

Empirical Likelihood for Threshold Autoregressive Models

This article develops empirical likelihood for threshold autoregressive models. We propose general estimating equations based on moment constraint. Under some suitable conditions, we show the empirical likelihood estimators for parameter are asymptotically normally distributed, and the proposed log empirical likelihood ratio statistic asymptotically follows a standard chi-squared distribution.     

C239. The continued fraction for lnr( z): a stieljes conjecture

Estimation in logistic-normal models for correlated and overdispersed binomial data is complicated by the numerical evaluation of often intractable likelihood functions. Penalized quasilikelihood (PQL) estimators of fixed effects and variance components are known to be seriously biased for binary data. A simple correction procedure has been proposed to improve the performance of the PQL estimators. The proposed method is illustrated by analyzing infectious disease data. Its performance is compared, by means of simulations, with that of the Bayes approach using the Gibbs sampler.     

The Danish psychosocial work environment and symptoms of stress: The main,mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to explore the main, mediating and moderating role of sense of coherence (SOC) on stress symptoms and on the association between perceived psychosocial work environment and stress symptoms. The sample includes 2053 Danish employees from 52 workplaces. Hierarchical regression models were applied for each measure of stress. The results strongly supported the presence of a main effect for SOC. People with high levels of SOC experienced fewer stress symptoms. A mediating effect of SOC was also supported. Thus, SOC in part explained the association between work environment and stress symptoms. In addition, some support for a moderating effect of SOC was found, suggesting that people with higher SOC coped more efficiently with work environmental strain that people with lower SOC. Taken together the regression models explained 11–32% of the variance in stress symptoms. The results suggest that measures of individual factors such as SOC should be included in analyses of the effects of work environmental factors on stress and well-being.     

Optimal change-over designs for correlated observations

Design implications of an autoregressive model for change-over experiments are investigated. In this model, the residual effect due to the previous treatment is assumed to be proportional to the response in the previous period. In addition, the errors from the same experimental subject are assumed to be correlated according to a first-order autoregressive model. Models with fixed and random subject effects are discussed separately. An attempt has been made to identify and construct optimal or nearly optimal designs in various situations. Empirical conclusions of Taka and Armitage [Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. (1983)12, 865-876] regarding the efficiency of some designs have also been confirmed.     

论回族在构建和谐社会中的积极作用

本文结合回族历史及中阿文化交融来详细论述回族在当今构建社会主义和谐社会中的积极因素,在阐述回族顺利融入中华的历史背景和文化结合基因之后,重点对回族人善于沟通交融的社交能力,回族人平等有序的社会价值观,回族人守护信仰家园的精神富足,回族人重视生殖健康和戒烟戒酒的良好习惯,回族人宽容别人、自觉律己的道德品格,回族人无私“散给”、助人为乐的精神境界六大方面加以例述,最后阐释回族对伊斯兰教义的合理阐发和创新性运用以及回族的发展实践对与时俱进的中国特色民族宗教理论的贡献。     

当代中国人的马基雅弗利主义:缘由、影响及对策

马基雅弗利主义是西方的厚黑学,在当代中国经济转轨、社会转型的大背景下,一度泛滥,马基雅弗利主义的盛行是道德钳制、媒体误导和制度失范共同作用的结果。马基雅弗利主义无助于事业成功,对于个人和社会都不是好事。要控制马基雅弗利主义,我们应当在宏观层面大力加强制度建设;在中观层面要匡正厚黑流弊,营造良好的社会氛围;在微观层面要完全肯定和保护个人正当利益与需求。