《教育时间学》出版十年反思与前瞻

《教育时间学》出版十年来 ,作者对教育时间学这门形成中的学科的若干基本问题不断反思 ,形成了更为清晰的认识。作者同时认识到 ,教育时间学要成为一门公认的学科 ,还有相当长的路要走 ,作者将团结同道继续努力。     

Estimating stellar-oscillation-related parameters and their uncertainties with the moment method

Summary.  The moment method is a well-known astronomical mode identification technique in asteroseismology which uses a time series of the first three moments of a spectral line to estimate the discrete oscillation mode parameters l and m . The method, in contrast with many other mode identification techniques, also provides estimates of other important continuous parameters such as the inclination angle α and the rotational velocity v _e. We developed a statistical formalism for the moment method based on so-called generalized estimating equations. This formalism allows an estimation of the uncertainty of the continuous parameters, taking into account that the different moments of a line profile are correlated and that the uncertainty of the observed moments also depends on the model parameters. Furthermore, we set up a procedure to take into account the mode uncertainty, i.e. the fact that often several modes ( l ,  m ) can adequately describe the data. We also introduce a new lack-of-fit function which works at least as well as a previous discriminant function, and which in addition allows us to identify the sign of the azimuthal order m . We applied our method to star HD181558 by using several numerical methods, from which we learned that numerically solving the estimating equations is an intensive task. We report on the numerical results, from which we gain insight in the statistical uncertainties of the physical parameters that are involved in the moment method.     

时间数列分析中的加法模型与乘法模型

文章通过实例说明了时间数列分析中加法模型的应用,纠正了一些统计学教材上常见的错误认识和模型的错误使用,对统计教材中统计方法的系统化起到了一定的作用。     

道教生命哲学的内在构造及现代意义

道教生命哲学以“道”为本源,认为“道生万物”,而人的个体生命与“道”之间是一种特殊与普遍、具体与抽象的关系。“精”、“气”、“神”作为道教生命哲学中的三个重要范畴是联结“道”与人的生命的纽带。通过对“精”、“气”、“神”的阐释,道教得出了人的个体生命只有一次、不会重复的结论,由此提出了珍惜现世生命、“人命最重”的哲学命题。道教由注重珍惜人的生命,逐渐上升到企图通过种种方法来保全生命,进而超越生命,与“道”共存的观念。这种对人类生命无限关爱和永恒呵护的哲学思想,在21世纪的今天,仍然具有作用社会、造福人类的价值。     

时代主题转换与中国特色社会主义的发展

20世纪80年代末90年代初苏东社会主义国家发生的剧变,使世界社会主义遭受了空前严重的大挫折;但与此同时,中国的改革开放事业,却进入了一个新的发展阶段,开创了社会主义事业的新局面.一个"大挫折",一个"新局面",形成了鲜明的对比.究其原因,关键是我们能够顺应时代潮流的发展,正确分析国际形势和时代特征,并根据中国国情,制定了正确的方针政策.     

Semiparametric Efficient Estimation of the Mean of a Time Series in the Presence of Conditional Heterogeneity of Unknown Form

We obtain semiparametric efficiency bounds for estimation of a location parameter in a time series model where the innovations are stationary and ergodic conditionally symmetric martingale differences but otherwise possess general dependence and distributions of unknown form. We then describe an iterative estimator that achieves this bound when the conditional density functions of the sample are known. Finally, we develop a “semi-adaptive” estimator that achieves the bound when these densities are unknown by the investigator. This estimator employs nonparametric kernel estimates of the densities. Monte Carlo results are reported.     

International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities

Using tests of time reversibility, this paper provides further statistical evidence on the long-standing conjecture in economics concerning the potentially asymmetric behaviour of output over the expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle. A particular advantage of this approach is that it provides a discriminating test that is instructive as to whether any asymmetries detected are due to asymmetric shocks to a linear model, or an underlying non-linear model with symmetric shocks, and in the latter case is informative as to the potential form of that nonlinear model. Using a long span of international per capita output growth data, the asymmetry detected is overwhelmingly consistent with the long standing perception that the output business cycle is characterized by steeper recessions and longer more gentle expansions, but the evidence for this form of business cycle asymmetry is weaker in the data adjusted for the influence of outliers associated with wars and other extreme events. Statistically significant time irreversibility is reported for the output growth rates of almost all of the countries considered in the full sample data, and there is evidence that this time irreversibility is of a form implying an underlying nonlinear model with symmetrically distributed innovations for 15 of the 22 countries considered. However, the time irreversibility test results for the outlier-trimmed full sample data reveal significant time irreversibility in output growth for around one half of the countries considered, predominantly in Northern Europe and North America, and of a form implying a nonlinear underlying model in only a further half of those cases.     

海德格尔的《存在与时间》有“三重困境”吗——与寇鹏程先生商榷

原载于《汕头大学学报》 (人文社科版 ) 2 0 0 3年第 6期的寇鹏程先生的文章《海德格尔〈存在与时间〉的三重困境》 (另见人大复印资料《外国哲学》 2 0 0 4年第 2期 )指出海德格尔的《存在与时间》存在着三重内在的困境。笔者认为 ,“三重困境”的提法有值得商榷的地方 ,这里一一提出质疑     

晁说之年谱简编

晁说之(1059～1129)是北宋一位不容忽视的经学家。他博通五经,尤精于《易》学,同时又是一位富有创作实绩的作家、画家,与苏轼、黄庭坚等苏门文人、江西诗派作家有着广泛的师友关系。由于元符上书入党籍,其仕途极其坎坷,长期沉沦下僚。他的一生经历了仁宗、神宗、哲宗、徽宗、钦宗、高宗六朝,是难得的一位身入南宋的"元名士"。     

An Investigation of two Sequence-Comparison Statistics

This paper describes an investigation of two statistics which compare two ordered sequences of objects by providing a measure of the discordance when the sequences are slotted together. Configurations having zero discordance are described. Plausible null models for data are postulated, and an account is given of a simulation study which investigated the distribution of the statistics when these models were used in the analysis of physical logging data from two wells.