价值链嵌入与经济周期联动——增加值的视角

本文利用1997年、2002年、2007年和2012年中国区域间投入产出表,从增加值的视角研究了价值链嵌入与经济周期联动性的关系。不同于存在重复统计问题的现行总值核算方法,本文基于区域流出的增加值完全分解框架,重新构建了增加值核算下的双边贸易强度和价值链贸易强度。实证结果表明双边贸易强度和价值链贸易强度分别对经济周期联动性有显著的正向和负向影响,验证了Frankel-Rose效应的存在和国内区域分工的替代性特征;从“地理偏好”角度,本文发现增加值供求的地域特征会强化价值链嵌入与经济周期联动性的关系;进一步,“第三方效应”分析表明双边贸易强度很大程度经由国内其他区域传导经济波动,而价值链贸易强度与经济周期联动性的关系则基本不受第三方效应的影响。     

The economic benefits of the EU Single Market in goods and services

This paper examines the macro-economic benefits of the Single Market in goods and services by simulating a counterfactual scenario in which tariffs and non-tariff barriers are reintroduced. In this counterfactual scenario, intra-EU trade flows are significantly reduced. Lower trade openness also means reduced market size and less competition. Using empirical evidence on the effect of the Single Market on firms’ mark-ups over marginal costs, we add these competition effects and arrive at a total estimate of around 9% higher GDP on average for the EU, but with a strong degree of heterogeneity across EU countries.     

Spousal resources and relationship quality in eight European countries

ABSTRACT

We relate relationship satisfaction and thoughts about leaving a romantic relationship to a couple’s relative and absolute resources and check for context-dependency of those associations. Our theoretical point of departure is that the more resources women have compared to their spouses, the higher their intra-household bargaining power to negotiate themselves out of unpleasant tasks, particularly in gender-egalitarian and very income equal and unequal societies. In traditional societies (which score low on the Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM)), the inflexible role of men within the household presumably prevents women from bargaining a better position, which in turn negatively affects relationship quality. Income equality (low GINI coefficient) may be a prerequisite for women’s bargaining position, where more inequality (mid-GINI) may be detrimental for it. Nevertheless, extreme income inequality (high GINI) may again be favorable for women’s relationship power. Using country fixed effects models on data from the Generations and Gender Surveys (GGS), we compare men and women who are in a couple (formed after 1995) for eight European countries. We find that absolute resources matter more than relative resources, at least for relationship satisfaction: Higher educated couples are more satisfied with their relationships, which could suggest lower stress levels in those couples (in more traditional contexts). Second, we observe GINI context-dependency of the association between relative education and relationship satisfaction for women and relative education and exit thoughts for men, although opposite to what we expected. Perhaps reference group theory or gender display theory can explain these unexpected results. Finally, we find that women have more break-up plans in societies with a lower score on GEM. This last result is consistent with the notion that bargaining only works in egalitarian contexts.     

Beyond growth: new alliances for socio-ecological transformation in Austria

ABSTRACT

Trade unions and environmental movements are often seen as political opponents most prominently discussed in the form of the ‘jobs vs. environment dilemma’. Based on historical examples of the conflict relations between trade unions and environmental groups in the Austrian energy sector, this paper showcases how the relationship between the two groups has changed from enmity to first attempts at alliance building. Drawing from analysis of union documents and problem-centred interviews conducted with Austrian unionists, it shows that newly emerging alliances between unions and environmental movements contain the seeds for a broad societal movement that can help overcome the paradigm of growth and actively engage in the creation of policies that support a social–ecological transformation.     

Customer Learning Processes,Strategy Selection,and Performance in Business‐to‐Business Service Firms*

Learning about customers takes place through relevant dialogues with those customers, also known as customer relationship management (CRM). As relationships develop, information about the customer is gathered in the firm's customer information systems (CIS): the content, processes, and assets associated with gathering and moving customer information throughout the firm. This research develops a measure of CIS management capabilities based on learning organization theory and measured by the ability to get, store, move, and use information throughout the business unit. This measure is then used to analyze customer learning processes and associated performance in the context of marketing strategic decision making. This study of 209 business services firms finds that generic marketing strategy positioning (low‐cost and differentiation) and the marketing tactics of personalization and customization are related to CIS development. Customer information systems development in turn is associated with higher levels of customer‐based performance, which in turn is associated with increased business growth. Since the strongest association with customer‐based performance is strategy selection, the long‐term benefits of the knowledge gained from the CIS may be in the ability to assist in measuring customer‐based performance, rather than in the ability to immediately contribute to performance. Finally, for these firms, customization and personalization are not directly associated with performance and thus may not be necessary to support every firm's marketing strategy.     

中国与中东的军事外交

本文论述中华人民共和国成立以来,特别是1955年万隆会议后中国与中东国家军事交往史和重大事件,如20世纪五六十年代中国在道义和物质上(包括军援)支持中东地区的民族解放运动;自1956年中国与埃及建交后,中国在绝大多数中东国家中建立使馆武官处,军事外交工作有了很大进展;军贸工作也取得良好成绩,中国与中东国家的友好合作关系显著加强。作为联合国安理会常任理事国,中国参加了联合国在中东地区的维和行动,并派海军舰艇赴亚丁湾参加防范索马里海盗的护航行动。     

Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Policy: New Life in an Old Connection

The purpose of this paper is to account for the revival of both academic and substantive interest in what had long been seen as an unimportant byway of social policy: the role of social partners, especially trade unions, in the management of national social insurance systems. The answer is found in the budgetary crises facing these systems along with the frequent embedded role of the social partner organizations in their governance. Meanwhile, this welfare state role of trade unions then has implications back on to the conduct of industrial relations. The diversity of national experiences is considered, including the reasons for British exceptionalism on this question. Particular use is made of a comparison between Italy and the Netherlands on the one hand (cases of some success in the role of social partners in managing change in social insurance arrangements), and France and Germany on the other (at the time of writing, cases of stalemate).     

关于韩愈待命郴州的几个问题

德宗贞元末,韩愈贬阳山,旋因政局变化而待命郴州,考证而得韩愈于贞元二十一年的七八月之交至九月二十日之间待命郴州。考察韩愈《八月十五夜赠张功曹》中“州家申名使家抑”诗句,韩愈待命郴州长达80余日的逗留,应是受到了湖南观察使杨凭的压制与阻扰。这主要是因为韩愈是永贞党的反对派,政治上的分歧使韩愈、柳宗元关系蒙上了阴影,而杨凭亦是柳宗元之岳父。韩柳关系上的变化,使待命郴州后的韩愈在创作上也发生了变化。