“现代化”之后的东亚农业和农村社会——日本、韩国和台湾地区的案例及其历史意蕴

日本、韩国和台湾地区的农业和农村通常被看作中国大陆农业和农村的样板。但是,以粮食大量依赖进口,农村的空洞化、老龄化和劳动力不足,以及与"新娘短缺"相伴的"外籍新娘"的涌入为代表,这三个国家和地区的粮食和人口的再生产都处于难以持续的状态,"现代化"之后的农业和农村实际上都处于严重的危机之中。这种状况与其具有高度竞争力的工业和拥挤的城市形成鲜明对照,它是"东亚模式"或"东亚资本主义"的一种必然结局,也对中国大陆农业和农村的未来演变趋势提出了警示。     

Analysis of a continuous-time proportional hazard model using discrete duration data

Many economic duration variables are often available only up to intervals, and not up to exact points. However, continuous time duration models are conceptually superior to discrete ones. Hence, in duration analyses, one faces a situation with discrete data and a continuous model. This paper discusses (i) the asymptotic bias of a conventional approximation procedure in which a discrete duration is treated as an exact observation; and (ii) the efficiency of a correct maximum likelihood estimator which appropriately accounts for the discrete nature of the data.     

Robust methods in econometrics

This survey of recent developments in robust estimation and inference is directed primarily toward econometricians. It is argued that many of the techniques in common use in econometrics are highly sensitive to unverified hypotheses. Recent progress in designing alternative robust procedures is described and some prospects for future developments are discussed.     

Predicting the Condom Assertiveness of Collegiate Females in the United States From the Expanded Health Belief Model

ABSTRACT. Collegiate females in the United States are susceptible to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) due to their propensity for sexual exploration, multiple sexual partnerships, and inconsistent safe-sex practices. Despite the potential for safe-sex communication to contribute to safer sex, little is known about the predictors of this form of sexual communication. Research on condom assertiveness—the unambiguous messaging that sex without a condom is unacceptable—is especially rare. This study employed the Expanded Health Belief Model (EHBM) in an attempt to understand why some collegiate females are more condom assertive than others. Compared with less condom-assertive females, more condom-assertive females have more faith in the effectiveness of condoms, believe more in their own condom communication skills, perceive that they are more susceptible to STIs, believe there are more relational benefits to being condom assertive, believe their peers are more condom assertive, and intend to be more condom assertive. Overall, EHBM variables accounted for nearly 70% of the variability in condom assertiveness. Several of these associations, however, were moderated by sexual compulsivity and general assertiveness. Implications of these findings for sexual health practitioners are discussed, and directions for future research are suggested.     

Decentralized WIP-oriented manufacturing control (DEWIP)

DEWIP is a manufacturing control system for job shop environments aiming at achieving short and reliable lead times by establishing WIP control loops between the manufacturing work centres. The paper describes the mode of function, the setting of parameters and simulation results of the new manufacturing control system. The setting of parameters is done with the aid of the funnel model and the theory of logistic operating curves, both developed at the Institute of Production Systems at the University of Hanover. The simulation is conducted using industrial data and makes it possible to assess DEWIP with regard to lead times, WIP level, performance and schedule reliability. DEWIP is compared both with an uncontrolled process and with the manufacturing control systems Load oriented order release (LOOR), Conwip and Polca. The results suggest that DEWIP and the models employed for the setting of parameters are suitable for job shop production and therefore offer a valuable alternative to prevailing centralized manufacturing control systems.     

Applying stage-gate processes to technology development—Experience from six hardware-oriented companies

The stage gate model has been proposed for application to uncertain technology development. Reports on industrial experience from such implementations are quite limited, however. This led us to explore in six companies what adaptations have been made to facilitate the model's usefulness for technology development and the companies’ experiences from their practical application of the model. Our results indicate that aspects proven important for the operational success, or failure, of the model include the level of adaptation to the characteristics of technology development and a more flexible use than that normally found in product development.     

集团公司战略风险管理的理论探讨

本文对集团公司战略管理过程中产生战略风险的机制从公司整体运行的角度进行研究,提出了公司战略风险管理的系统化理论模型,并从公司的环境、资源、能力和公司主题战略四个方面分析了战略风险产生的风险机理。并提出了环境和资源对公司战略主题目标的实现的影响及产生风险的机制。     

现代企业竞争及竞争效能描述新探

现代企业竞争已不再是传统竞争观念之下的企业之间为争夺最终消费者而展开的市场竞争了。现代企业要想在竞争中建立优势,就必须全面关注一切可能影响企业竞争力的相关组织和个人的作用。本文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,对现代企业竞争及其效能描述提出了一种全新的观点。     

基于顾客的品牌权益测评:品牌联想结构分析法

品牌建设的核心是创建品牌权益.通过分析顾客的品牌联想结构,有助于考察品牌建设的效果,揭示品牌对顾客的影响.本文分析了基于顾客的品牌权益概念的科学内涵,详细阐述了品牌联想的构造,并对若干中外品牌的品牌联想结构进行了实证分析.     

新经济增长理论评析与启示

新经济增长理论强调知识、技术、人力资本对经济增长的巨大作用,打开了索罗"余值"的"黑箱",给出了技术变化一个内生的解释,为人们重新认识经济的长期增长,提供了许多深刻的看法。新经济增长理论也为我国西部地区经济增长提供了很好的启示。在新的历史时期,西部地区经济发展应实施"双重优势战略",切实依靠科技进步,加大知识、技术的投入,加快人力资源培育和开发的步伐,不断创造和完善有利于推进科技进步,充分发挥人力资本作用的制度环境。