黑河流域人口承载力预测分析

人口承载力的研究对象是由若干个内部关系错综复杂、相互之间联系紧密的子系统所组成的“自然-经济-社会”复合巨系统,本文运用系统动力学建立复合模型仿真模拟预测黑河流域人口承载力状况．并建立黑河流域人口承载力的预警指标体系。复合模型预测数据显示,黑河流域人口承载力呈超载状态．而预警目标值Z=0．979〈1,说明该区没有实现持续发展,乃“磊、乙三个指标小于1,说明黑河流域生态环境和固定资产投资占比是影响黑河流域发展的主要因素。     

“一带一路”战略与中国对阿拉伯国家出口潜力分析

欧美的贸易保护主义盛起之时转变外贸地理方向成为我国外贸的一项重要工作,恰逢中国率先提出的“一带一路”战略规划了东亚开放的地区主义,处于“一带一路”交汇处的阿拉伯国家便成为了我们天然的经贸合作伙伴,从而对阿拉伯国家的外贸出口呈现出愈来愈强的重要性。本文基于贸易引力模型,通过中国对阿拉伯国家联盟中的20个国家2001年～2010年间的货物贸易出口数据,测算了同各国间的贸易潜力,基于中国与阿拉伯国家间存在的较大贸易潜力提出了几点结论与启示。     

上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单的路径和措施

目前,在中国(上海)自贸试验区的各项实施制度中,"负面清单"制度是其中重要的一项,也将是未来自贸区可复制、可推广的一项关键制度。对此,可借鉴《美国双边投资协议2012年范本》,将上海自贸试验区负面清单转化为全国负面清单,向全国推广。     

The embeddedness of organizational performance: Multiple Membership Multiple Classification Models for the analysis of multilevel networks

We present a Multiple Membership Multiple Classification (MMMC) model for analysing variation in the performance of organizational sub-units embedded in a multilevel network. The model postulates that the performance of organizational sub-units varies across network levels defined in terms of: (i) direct relations between organizational sub-units; (ii) relations between organizations containing the sub-units, and (iii) cross-level relations between sub-units and organizations. We demonstrate the empirical merits of the model in an analysis of inter-hospital patient mobility within a regional community of health care organizations. In the empirical case study we develop, organizational sub-units are departments of emergency medicine (EDs) located within hospitals (organizations). Networks within and across levels are delineated in terms of patient transfer relations between EDs (lower-level, emergency transfers), hospitals (higher-level, elective transfers), and between EDs and hospitals (cross-level, non-emergency transfers). Our main analytical objective is to examine the association of these interdependent and partially nested levels of action with variation in waiting time among EDs – one of the most commonly adopted and accepted measures of ED performance. We find evidence that variation in ED waiting time is associated with various components of the multilevel network in which the EDs are embedded. Before allowing for various characteristics of EDs and the hospitals in which they are located, we find, for the null models, that most of the network variation is at the hospital level. After adding these characteristics to the model, we find that hospital capacity and ED uncertainty are significantly associated with ED waiting time. We also find that the overall variation in ED waiting time is reduced to less than a half of its estimated value from the null models, and that a greater share of the residual network variation for these models is at the ED level and cross level, rather than the hospital level. This suggests that the covariates explain some of the network variation, and shift the relative share of residual variation away from hospital networks. We discuss further extensions to the model for more general analyses of multilevel network dependencies in variables of interest for the lower level nodes of these social structures.     

Assessing reporting patterns of child sexual abuse within the Catholic Church using discontinuities in model parameter timeseries

Prior to 2002, little was known about sexual abuse within the Catholic Church. After the Boston Globe broke the story about John Geoghan - a priest in the Boston Archdiocese who was accused of abusing numerous children, convicted of one count of indecent assault, and eventually murdered in prison - the Church had many questions to answer. To this end, the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) commissioned John Jay College of Criminal Justice to research the nature and scope, as well as the causes and context of child sexual abuse within the Catholic Church.This research analyzes the data from the John Jay studies using a new quantitative technique, capable of adjusting for distortions introduced by delays in abuse reporting. By isolating discontinuities in model parameter timeseries, we determine changes in reporting patterns occurred during the period 1982-1988. A posteriori to the analysis, we provide some possible explanations for the changes in abuse reporting associated with the change-point. While the scope of this paper is limited to presenting a new methodological approach within the frame of a particular case study, the techniques are more broadly applicable in settings where reporting lag is manifested.     

中国式财政分权的宏观经济绩效——基于限制型VAR模型的经验分析

本文从中央政府与地方政府行为角度构建了中国式分权与宏观经济绩效之间的关联框架,指出中国式分权体制下的地方政府竞争行为构成了中国经济增长以及周期性过热的主导力量。由于中国不同省份的自然历史、地理位置以及发展政策差异极大,即使是同样的分权程度也可能产生不同的经济绩效与激励效果,这也就使得面板数据模型回归结论对其设定形式非常敏感。因此,本文采用受限VAR模型来实证分析中国式财政分权对于经济增长率和通货膨胀率的作用效应,结论证实了本文的理论预期。     

基于钻石模型的重庆自贸区跨境电商创新发展的路径研究

重庆自贸区跨境电商在推进重庆建设内陆国际物流中心、内陆服务贸易中心、内陆功能性金融中心中起到了重要作用。运用波特钻石模型对重庆自贸区跨境电商进行分析，从生产要素、需求条件、相关与支持产业、竞争对手、发展机会、政府作用六个方面，构建模型分析各种影响因素，研究重庆自贸区跨境电商的现状及比较优势，提出创新发展的路径。     

Gibbs sampling for marginal posterior expectations

In earlier work (Gelfand and Smith, 1990 and Gelfand et al, 1990) a sampling based approach using the Gibbs sampler was offered as a means for developing marginal posterior densities for a wide range of Bayesian problems several of which were previously inaccessible. Our purpose here is two-fold. First we flesh out the implementation of this approach for calculation of arbitrary expectations of interest. Secondly we offer comparison with perhaps the most prominent approach for calculating posterior expectations, analytic approximation involving application of the LaPlace method. Several illustrative examples are discussed as well. Clear advantages for the sampling based approach emerge.     

MODELING THE LIFETIME OF LONGITUDINAL ELEMENTS

In the study of the stochastic behaviour of the lifetime of an element as a function of its length, it is often observed that the failure time (or lifetime) decreases as the length increases. In probabilistic terms, such an idea can be expressed as follows. Let T be the lifetime of a specimen of length x, so the survival function, which denotes the probability that an element of length x survives till time t, will be given by S_T (t, x) = P(T > t/α(x), where α(x) is a monotonically decreasing function. In particular, it is often assumed that T has a Weibull distribution. In this paper, we propose a generalization of this Weibull model by assuming that the distribution of T is Generalized gamma (GG). Since the GG model contains the Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal models as special and limiting cases, a GG regression model is an appropriate tool for describing the size effect on the lifetime and for selecting among the embedded models. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained for the GG regression model with α(x) = cx^b . As a special case this provide an alternative to the usual approach to estimation for the GG distribution which involves reparametrization. Related parametric inference issues are addressed and illustrated using two experimental data sets. Some discussion of censored data is also provided.