英语强化训练可行性的理论探讨

本文从回顾英语强化教学的发展历程入手,探讨语言强化教学模式在教学法及其上位学科语言学、教育学、心理学等方面的理论依据,并以此对广东培正学院实行的英语强化训练教学模式的特点进行分析和研究,从理论上探讨实施英语强化训练教学模式的可行性。     

Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit

Summary. We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure p _D for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general p _D approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's information and the posterior covariance, which in normal models is the trace of the 'hat' matrix projecting observations onto fitted values. Its properties in exponential families are explored. The posterior mean deviance is suggested as a Bayesian measure of fit or adequacy, and the contributions of individual observations to the fit and complexity can give rise to a diagnostic plot of deviance residuals against leverages. Adding p _D to the posterior mean deviance gives a deviance information criterion for comparing models, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification. The procedure is illustrated in some examples, and comparisons are drawn with alternative Bayesian and classical proposals. Throughout it is emphasized that the quantities required are trivial to compute in a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis.     

The Pathways Model as Harm Minimization for Youth Gamblers in Educational Settings

Prevalence studies have indicated that a significant percentage of school-age youth exhibit problem or pathological gambling behaviors. However, to date there are few guidelines to assist educators in identifying those at risk and incorporating harm-reduction strategies into school curricula. This paper proposes using the Pathways Model of pathological gambling (Blaszczynski, 1998; Blaszczynski & Nower, 2002) as a harm-minimization strategy to guide social workers and other educators in effectively assessing, discriminating, and managing discrete subgroups of youth problem gamblers in educational settings and referring them to appropriate services. The Pathways Model asserts that a multiple range of specific psychological, biological, and socio-ecological variables interact at differential levels to form three distinct routes leading to the manifestation of superficially similar phenomenological characteristics and symptoms. It is argued that an understanding of the relevance and psychological implications of each separate pathway will greatly assist in the application of early intervention and prevention strategies, designed to effectively minimize the potential harm associated with youth problem gambling behaviors.     

Warr's scale of job-related affective well-being: A longitudinal examination of its structure and relationships with work characteristics

The aims of this 3-year follow-up study among Finnish managers (n=615) were first, to test the theoretically-based structure of the job-related affective well-being scale (Warr, 1990b), and second, to examine the linear and curvilinear longitudinal associations between work characteristics and job-related affective well-being. Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the hypothesized four-factor model best described the structure of the job-related affective well-being scale; that is, the scale included four interrelated factors of job-related anxiety, comfort, depression, and enthusiasm at both measurement times. Structural equation modelling showed that high feelings of comfort at work were longitudinally associated with a positive perception of the supportiveness of the organizational climate, after controlling for sense of coherence. Conversely, the work characteristics included in this study (job control and supportive organizational climate) did not serve as antecedents of job-related affective well-being during the follow-up. In addition, there were no cross-sectional or longitudinal curvilinear associations between work characteristics and job-related affective well-being: associations were found to be linear. We conclude that (a) Warr's scale of job-related affective well-being is best conceptualized as consisting of four interrelated dimensions whose factor structure is (b) highly stable across a 3-year time interval.     

生态系统监测与管理信息模型研究

生态系统监测与管理信息模型的研究是生态系统监测与管理信息系统研究中的重要内容 ,其目的是综合应用遥感和地理信息系统 ,建立空间信息模型 ,对生态系统和各种资源环境问题及时地进行监测分析 ,为促进生态系统的良性循环提供辅助决策支持     

Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models

This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the estimation of linearized DSGE models, the evaluation of models based on Bayesian model checking, posterior odds comparisons, and comparisons to vector autoregressions, as well as the non-linear estimation based on a second-order accurate model solution. These methods are applied to data generated from correctly specified and misspecified linearized DSGE models and a DSGE model that was solved with a second-order perturbation method.     

Cost effectiveness of an integrated service delivery model as measured by worker retention

This study sought to examine the impact of housing child welfare ongoing teams in the community, near client neighborhoods, and in a setting that also co-locates other service providers that serve the same clients. The focus was the impact of location and service integration on perceptions of worker stress and actual worker turnover. Thirty four workers from this type of setting and from a more traditional setting in two urban cities in a Southern state were interviewed. In addition turnover rates were calculated and compared. It was found that those located near clients and with staff from other agencies had better morale, lower stress levels, more positive attitudes toward clients and client contexts, knew more about the communities the clients lived in and had more chances to collaborate to solve client problems than those in a more traditional setting with co-location only with family support staff. The turnover rate was lower in the integrated service delivery setting than in either the traditional setting or the state overall. Thus, integration of service delivery benefits not only the child welfare workforce participants, but also the clients who have greater access to other service providers and to the bottom line of the agency through the retention of workers. Implications are described.     

上海电子信息产品制造业转型升级的思路——目标、方向、关键点、路径与发展模式

上海电子信息产品制造业在上海六大重点工业行业中占重要地位,但产业表现出“大而不强”的特征;产业的自主创新能力亟待提升。在后危机时代上海商务成本逐渐高企,土地等资源条件紧张的产业发展环境下,电子信息产品制造业的转型升级显得尤为迫切。本文通过分析该产业发展现状和面临的问题,提出上海电子信息产品制造业转型升级的思路、升级的方向、升级的路径、发展模式和关键点,并提出保障上海电子信息产品制造业更快更好转型升级的对策建议：提升政府的服务水平,营造优越的产业发展生态环境;聚焦产业“高新高效高端”特征,打造优势产业链;加强创新服务,强化以知识与智力资本动态比较优势为禀赋的竞争优势。     

Impact of Value‐Added Service Features in e‐Retailing Processes: An Econometric Analysis of Web Site Functions

We examine the impact of three classes of Web site functions (foundational, customer‐centered, and value‐added) upon e‐retailer performance. Using secondary panel data for 2007–2009 on operating characteristics of over 600 e‐retailers, our econometric analysis finds that only the value‐added service functions are positively associated with changes in e‐retail sales revenues across time. We also observe a decreasing marginal impact of deploying additional value‐added service features. To account for possible alternate explanations, we control for firm‐ and time‐specific fixed effects, merchant types, merchandise categories, and order fulfillment strategies. By further decomposing e‐retail sales revenues into Web site traffic, conversion rate, and average order value, we find that Web site functions affect e‐retail sales revenues mainly through their impact on Web site traffic. Our investigation demonstrates the empirical research usefulness of the Voss conceptual e‐service sand cone model. Our results identify for managers where to focus ongoing e‐retailing system development efforts, yet suggest that focusing too many retailing capabilities on exploratory and experimental value‐added service features may backfire, potentially leading to worsening e‐retailer performance.     

大数据背景下网络调查样本的随机森林倾向得分模型推断研究

随着大数据与互联网技术的迅猛发展,网络调查的应用越来越广泛。本文提出网络调查样本的随机森林倾向得分模型推断方法,通过构建若干棵分类决策树组成随机森林,对网络调查样本单元的倾向得分进行估计,从而实现对总体的推断。模拟分析和实证研究结果表明:基于随机森林倾向得分模型的总体均值估计的相对偏差、方差与均方误差均比基于Logistic倾向得分模型的总体均值估计的相对偏差、方差与均方误差小,提出的方法估计效果更好。