Utility function of fuzzy preferences on a countable set under max-*-transitivity

We determine, by means of max-*-transitivity, necessary and sufficient conditions for a fuzzy binary relation R defined on a countable (finite or denumerable) set A to be representable by a utility function. We display one example of its application. The first author thanks AUF (Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie). This paper was revised when he was Visiting Researcher at CREM-University of Caen under the Research grant “Bourse Post-doctorale de la Francophonie 2005–2006”.     

不确定条件下用户路径选择行为研究述评

在介绍用户路径选择模型的类型后,重点分析了目前不确定条件下用户路径选择行为理论与模型,如期望效用理论及随机效用理论、累积前景理论、神经网络与模糊集理论及学习模型。在回顾与总结不确定条件下用户路径选择行为模型的基础上,针对国内外研究现状,指出了目前研究中存在的问题,并提出了该领域今后研究方向的建议。     

Expected utility within a generalized concept of probability — a comprehensive framework for decision making under ambiguity

It has often been complained that the standard framework of decision theory is insufficient. In most applications, neither the maximin paradigm (relving on complete ignorance on the states of natures) nor the classical Bayesian paradigm (assuming perfect probabilistic information on the states of nature) reflect the situation under consideration adequately. Typically one possesses some, but incomplete, knowledge on the stochastic behaviour of the states of nature. In this paper first steps towards a comprehensive framework for decision making under such complex uncertainty will be provided. Common expected utility theory will be extended to interval probability, a generalized probabilistic setting which has the power to express incomplete stochastic knowledge and to take the extent of ambiguity (non-stochastic uncertainty) into account. Since two-monotone and totally monotone capacities are special cases of general interval probatility, wher Choquet integral and interval-valued expectation correspond to one another, the results also show, as a welcome by-product, how to deal efficiently with Choquet Expected Utility and how to perform a neat decision analysis in the case of belief functions. Received: March 2000; revised version: July 2001     

The geometry of legal principles

We discuss several possible legal principles from the standpoint of Bayesian decision theory. In particular, we show that a compelling legal principle implies compatibility with decisions based on maximizing the expected utility.     

Utility optimization when the utility function is virtually unknown

In this paper a surrogate to traditional utility optimization is presented. This approach is based on multiple criteria decision making techniques through a theorem which connects utility function optimization with compromise programming. Apart from common assumptions in the literature the only specific assumption underlying the approach seems realistic, and is markedly related to traditional analysis.     

假冒伪劣品监控的博弈分析

假劣品监控系统的有效运行，取决于对该系统各行为人合理行为方式分析和预测。文中利用博弈论的基本思想对假劣品监控系统的各行为主体之间的两两关系进行了建模和分析，找出了影响其相互之间关系的因素，并得出了相关的结论和建议。     

Journal impact factor or intellectual influence? A content analysis of citation use in Communication Monographs and Human Communication Research (2007–2009)

Journal impact factors typically rely on the number of citations to a journal as well as the number of citable items published in the journal during specific time parameters. If journal impact factors accurately differentiate journals along a quality continuum, journals with higher impact factors should be referenced more often than journals with lower impact factors as sources of influence on scholars’ conceptual and methodological approaches to inquiry. To investigate this claim, a sample consisting of all twelve issues of Human Communication Research (HCR) and Communication Monographs (CM) published from 2007 through 2009 were content analyzed and every citation to either journal in the articles appearing in HCR and CM was coded. Results indicated that, despite higher impact factors for HCR, there were not more citations to HCR than CM as sources of conceptual or methodological influence appearing in articles appearing in HCR or CM.     

从政治经济学的研究对象、目的和方法看效用价值论

从政治经济学的研究对象、目的和方法看效用价值论在研究中存在一些问题,而专门从这一角度与之商榷的文章不多。本文则是从这一角度与效用价值论的观点进行讨论。笔者首先分析了效用价值论偏离政治经济学研究对象来分析商品价值和把马克思主义研究生产关系的目的简单化、片面化的错误,然后分析了效用价值论在科学抽象法认识和运用上的问题。     

Bayesian sequential analysis for multiple-arm clinical trials

Use of full Bayesian decision-theoretic approaches to obtain optimal stopping rules for clinical trial designs typically requires the use of Backward Induction. However, the implementation of Backward Induction, apart from simple trial designs, is generally impossible due to analytical and computational difficulties. In this paper we present a numerical approximation of Backward Induction in a multiple-arm clinical trial design comparing k experimental treatments with a standard treatment where patient response is binary. We propose a novel stopping rule, denoted by τ ^p , as an approximation of the optimal stopping rule, using the optimal stopping rule of a single-arm clinical trial obtained by Backward Induction. We then present an example of a double-arm (k=2) clinical trial where we use a simulation-based algorithm together with τ ^p to estimate the expected utility of continuing and compare our estimates with exact values obtained by an implementation of Backward Induction. For trials with more than two treatment arms, we evaluate τ ^p by studying its operating characteristics in a three-arm trial example. Results from these examples show that our approximate trial design has attractive properties and hence offers a relevant solution to the problem posed by Backward Induction.