受访者推动抽样：研究隐藏人口的方法与实践

“隐藏人口”的特点是规模较小且成员一般不愿暴露身份，因此很难使用常规抽样方法对其进行研究。近年来出现了一种新的研究隐藏人口的方法——受访者推动抽样（RDS)方法，该方法在传统“雪球抽样”方法的基础上，结合社会网络分析的理论和方法，使研究者有可能根据样本对总体特征做出合理的推论。本文对RDS方法的理论渊源、基本思路、主要操作步骤和原理进行了简要介绍，并探讨了在实际操作过程中应注意的问题。     

The influence of ‘topic and resource’ on some aspects of social theorising

Developments in sociological theory since the 1960s have been responses to disciplinary problems rather than changes in fashion. The problem of topic and resource—where sociology has to use everyday understandings and practices as study resources even though they are legitimate topics of enquiry—has been an important and sometimes neglected spur to many of these developments. The turn to discourse, conversation analysis and the rise of Bourdieu's reflexivity are all attempts to address the problem, but each is shown to be unsatisfactory in different ways. In summary, they seek to address the issue as requiring either a principled methodological or a principled theoretical solution, and neither approach is capable of comprehensively addressing the matter. It is argued that these ‘solutions’ depend, in turn, on one of two particular construals of what the ‘problem’ consists in, neither of which is necessary or coherent. Each, it is argued, depends on a philosophical trick: making language out to need formal improvement (the Bertrand Russell trick) or introducing inappropriate scepticism to everyday life (the René Descartes trick). It is suggested that treating topic and resource not as a problem but as something which opens up new areas of investigation successfully deflates the issue and avoids unnecessary theoretical and methodological contortions.     

论研究奥运经济影响的思路与方法

北京 2 0 0 8年奥运会将对首都经济产生重要的影响。研究奥运对经济影响的思路和方法主要包括 :首先 ,从空间范围和时间维度上界定“奥运的经济影响”。其次 ,确定研究思路或技术路线。再次 ,如何把奥运的经济影响从有关经济指标的数值中分离出来。最后 ,确定研究框架。在这个框架内 ,可以把奥运对经济的影响区分为一般影响和特殊影响 ,并把奥运的经济影响分解为若干个主题来进行研究。     

Giving birth after caesarean: Identifying shared preferences among pregnant women using Q methodology

BackgroundCaesarean rates are rising worldwide, the main contributor being the elective repeat caesarean. During the past decades, rates of vaginal birth after caesarean dropped considerably. This requires insight in women’s preferences regarding giving birth following a previous caesarean.AimTo gain a better understanding of women’s values and preferences regarding the upcoming birth following a previous caesarean. Using Q methodology, this study systematically explores and categorises their preferences.MethodsQ methodology is an innovative research approach to explore and compare a variety of viewpoints on a certain subject. Thirty-one statements on birth after caesarean were developed based on the health belief model. Thirty-six purposively sampled pregnant women with a history of caesarean ranked these statements from least to most important. By-person factor analysis was used to identify patterns which, supplemented with interview data, were interpreted as preferences.FindingsThree distinct preferences for giving birth after a caesarean were found; (a) “Minimise the risks for me and my child”, giving priority to professional advice and risk of adverse events, (b) “Seek the benefits of normal birth”, desiring to give birth as normal as possible for both emotional and practical reasons, (c) “Opt for repeat caesarean”, expressing the belief that a planned caesarean brings comfort.ConclusionsPreferences for birth after caesarean vary considerably among pregnant women. The findings help to understand the different types of information valued by women who need to decide on their mode of birth after a first caesarean.     

追问盘古——盘古神话来源问题研究之一

盘古神话在先秦乃至秦汉时期的汉文古籍中均没有记载,直到三国时代才出现在徐整的《三五历纪》中。盘古神话源自何处?源自什么民族?这是近百年来学术界争论不休的一个问题。本文及以后将陆续发表的系列研究文章认为,盘古神话来源于华南珠江流域的两粤(广东、广西)地区,来源于华南珠江流域的原住民族——壮侗语民族。     

度量银行操作风险的POT幂律模型及其应用

本文在极值理论的POT模型基础上,建立了基于分维的POT幂律模型,给出了POT模型的阈值选择的理论解释,还给出了满足尾部分布适合幂律的条件.分析表明,此模型较已有方法能更方便地估计尾部参数,对小样本情形研究厚尾问题提供了新的思路.此外,为计算操作风险损失和的在险价值(VaR)问题,本文引入保险理论里的随机和模型,并给出了计算操作风险在险值的简化公式.     

Incremental Sampling Methodology: Applications for Background Screening Assessments

This article presents the findings from a numerical simulation study that was conducted to evaluate the performance of alternative statistical analysis methods for background screening assessments when data sets are generated with incremental sampling methods (ISMs). A wide range of background and site conditions are represented in order to test different ISM sampling designs. Both hypothesis tests and upper tolerance limit (UTL) screening methods were implemented following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance for specifying error rates. The simulations show that hypothesis testing using two‐sample t ‐tests can meet standard performance criteria under a wide range of conditions, even with relatively small sample sizes. Key factors that affect the performance include unequal population variances and small absolute differences in population means. UTL methods are generally not recommended due to conceptual limitations in the technique when applied to ISM data sets from single decision units and due to insufficient power given standard statistical sample sizes from ISM.     

现代商业银行风险管理分析——基于行为金融学理论

行为金融学是以期望理论为基础,运用心理学、社会学和人类学的研究方法研究投资者的行为方式,进而研究资产的价格决定问题。行为金融理论被很多人认为是对有效市场假说最有力的挑战。随着金融全球化及金融市场的波动加剧,各国银行受到了前所未有的风险挑战,对风险管理的研究也就越来越受到重视和显得突出。本文采用行为金融理论对现代商业银行如何有效的进行风险管理做了系统的分析,用行为金融理论解决现实金融问题。