Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers’ perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate‐related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate‐related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate‐related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response.     

论清代以前中越宗藩关系

清代以前中越关系之演变可概括为关系模糊时期、越南对中国的北属时期和越南对中国的依附时期三个历史时段。清代以前的中越关系有一个较为复杂的演变过程，研究这一演变过程，对认识并正确处理好今天的中越关系非常重要。     

Memories of War: Sources of Vietnam Veteran Pro‐ and Antiwar Political Attitudes

The sources of political attitudes are among the most studied phenomena of modern politics. Moving away from the traditional focus on party systems, the demographic characteristics of voters, or political socialization, I consider instead how memory and narrative shape political consciousness. Specifically, I focus on how culturally sanctioned memories of warfare influence the political attitudes of 24 Vietnam veterans. I compare two groups of Vietnam veterans who went to Vietnam in support of the war and political status quo, but who returned with opposing attitudes toward war. How can we understand these contrasting outcomes? Specifically, how do memories of war shape political attitudes? Antiwar veterans relate similar narratives of having their idealistic views of war challenged and experiencing a major rethinking of their support when they learn the true nature of warfare. On the other hand, pro‐war veterans share a patterned narrative of indifference rather than idealism when describing their continued support of the war and political status quo after they return from Vietnam. I conclude by arguing that memory and narrative are an important mechanism for shaping political attitudes.     

19世纪法国对越南的侵略

越南和法国有着悠久的历史关系。在15世纪,葡萄牙、西班牙和法国的传教士陆续来到越南。他们不仅在越南传教,而且还要把这里变成殖民地。在此背景下,越南朝廷实行禁止传教的政策,驱逐西方传教士。法国殖民主义者以此为借口,于1858年发动侵越战争,逐渐把越南变成法国的殖民地,从此开启了越法两国关系的黑暗时期。     

越南战争与朝鲜半岛南北关系

韩国基于韩美双边关系以及自身的政治经济发展前景等各方面因素,出兵越南。朝鲜支援北越则是基于对社会主义国家的援助以及为朝鲜半岛的统一营造有利环境。围绕着越南战争,朝鲜半岛南北关系在20世纪六七十年代出现了纷繁复杂的变化：一方面,越南战争使朝鲜半岛南北关系一度剑拔弩张;另一方面,越南战争又促使东西方冷战得以缓解,进而间接地影响南北关系走向对话。     

国际金融危机中越南的经济表现和反危机措施评价

2008年的国际金融危机给越南经济带来的冲击主要表现在出口下滑,为此,越南采取了一系列反危机措施,其关注点在保持经济增长和抑制通货膨胀上。由于措施得力,越南在2009年和2010年上半段经济表现良好,经济保持较高增长率。综观越南的反危机方案,规模大和对工商企业的扶植大是两大主要特征。越南应充分利用危机的＂倒逼＂机制,解决长期困扰的通胀、财政赤字与经济增长之间失衡的难题,实现结构性调整,创新经济发展模式。     

Are simple tests of son preference useful? An evaluation using data from Vietnam

Son preference is widespread although not universal. Where it occurs it may lead to higher fertility rates. Ideally son preference should be measured in the context of a hazards or parity progression model of fertility, or a logistic model of contraceptive use. Such models require large amounts of survey data, particularly to measure the covariates. Can son preference be discerned reliably using tests which rely on more limited information? The answer is yes, based on applying eight simple tests to data from the Vietnam Living Standards Survey of 1992–93 and comparing the outcomes with the benchmark results from fuller models. Some, but not all, of the simpler tests accurately measure son preference, including estimating a simple hazards or progression parity model, the unisex sibship test, and the sibling differentials test. Received: 28 September 1995 / Accepted: 2 January 1997     

法国殖民统治下越南儒学教育的嬗变与终结

从中国引入的封建儒学教育,是古代越南社会最为重要的教育方式。自近代法国殖民者入侵越南以来,在其殖民统治下,经由拉丁越南文取代汉字,建立法式学校,儒学教育的改造,新学的破灭,以及以法国教育制度取代儒学教育制度等一系列的嬗变,古代越南的儒学教育最终走向了末路。     

“第三只手”：一个边贸市场的民间权威及其成长

中、越、老边境线附近的滇村“三号街”是当地人自发形成的边境贸易市场,经由传统社会生活方式所确立的民间权威,是维系“三号街”市场运行的重要力量。在传统的乡村社会,无论行政权力还是市场本身,都无法凭借一己之力建构稳固的经济体系并维持其运行,而民间权威在地方社会的经济生活中是不可或缺的。     

社会互动与滇越边民国家认同研究

社会互动是边民惯常性的行为表达。血缘、族群记忆及国家关系造就了边民社会互动的主体内容,边民有序的社会互动有助于国家治边意志的实现,而边民无序的社会互动行为则直接背离着民族国家的治边行为。在滇越边民区域性的社会交往互动中,文化诉求感的满足是传统时期边民社会互动的关键性需求,然而经时间改造,物质利益的满足逐渐上升并成为全球化背景下,影响滇越边民社会互动行为的核心要素。民族国家只有基于边民生活实际,合理性设计并施行制度,以迎合边民不同历史时期的主导性需求,进而在边民意识中形塑极具象征力的民族国家形象,才能从根本上使边民产生并长期拥有强烈的国家认同意识。