契机与考验并存——浅谈加入世贸组织对青海民族地区经济的影响及对策

本文结合青海民族地区实际 ,对世界贸易组织情况及其与中国谈判所涉及的领域作了简要介绍 ,分析了加入世贸组织后给青海民族地区经济建设带来契机与严峻考验 ,并有针对性地提出了对策。     

Care Diamonds and Welfare Regimes in East and South-East Asian Societies: Bridging Family and Welfare Sociology

This paper tries to bridge the micro-level analyses of social networks for "care" provision which have been conducted in the field of family sociology, and the macro-level framework on welfare mix which has been developed in the area of welfare sociology, because the options for creating social networks are given to individuals by society. A group of Asian researchers including the author have conducted comparative research on social networks for childcare and elderly care in six Asian societies, namely Korea, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and Japan. To reexamine the results, the author draws diagrams of the care diamonds in each society for each type of care (childcare or elderly care) to show the balance between four sectors (the state, market, family and relatives, and the community) which determines the pattern of welfare mix. The most prevalent pattern in Asian societies today is the pattern with a large family and relatives sector and a large market sector. We can interpret it as a familistic welfare regime combined with liberalism. However, Japan alone shows a pattern close to pure familism because the development of the market sector is restricted by immigration policies prohibiting the employment of foreign domestic workers. Unlike other Asian societies which were exposed to the global market before the family could become a closed organization and marketization of care work took place easily, in Japan, where the modern family system had been established, both socialization and marketization of care work have stagnated.     

Europe’s Role in China’s Transition to Superpower Status

What can Western powers do today to ease an eventual global power shift resulting from the rise of superpowers such as China? This paper suggests that part of the answer lies in the same power-binding institutions that allowed the US to rise post WWII without threatening its allies. Continuity in the rules of the global system during a great power transition would promote stability by reducing uncertainty, as well as the extent to which material power can be used coercively. I argue that current superpowers, the EU among them, have an interest in ensuring an equitable distribution of the gains from cooperation. While distributional issues are usually treated in normative terms, they take on very real, material meaning in the context of a great power transition. With this in mind, I look at three aspects of the current global institutional framework that would benefit from reform: international trade and aid, institutional design, and institutional proliferation. In all three cases, a more equal distribution of the gains from institutions today increases the odds that those institutional arrangements will remain in the future.     

中共六大苏维埃政权建设中群众思想的当代价值

中共六大在探索苏维埃政权建设的过程中,更加注重工农群众主体地位的巩固和能动作用的发挥,较为系统地论述了政权建设中的群众思想。其着重从四个方面加以阐述,形成了以实现好、维护好和发展好最广大人民群众的根本利益为政权建设的根本出发点和落脚点;尊重和激发人民群众的主体创造潜能为推动政权建设的内生动力;解决好人民群众最直接、最现实、最关心的民生问题为政权建设的着力点;始终坚持群众思想、践行群众路线为政权建设的根本路线方针等为主体内容的群众思想,对当代政权建设中的群众路线实践具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

论世界贸易组织法对发展中成员的保护

世界贸易组织法对发展中成员的特殊保护,有利于全球经济的发展。在阐述世界贸易组织法对发展中成员保护内容的基础上,分析其必要性和不足,并提出完善意见。     

Role of stylized features in constructing better estimators

This article discusses the role played by stylized features of financial time series in constructing better estimators for the model parameters. We study in detail one such estimator for the transition probabilities of a simple regime switching model. The estimator is based on the squared autocovariances of the time series, which has been discussed in several empirical studies of economic and financial time series. The effectiveness of this estimator in improving the estimation accuracy is investigated, using both finite sample and asymptotic computations. We also report simulation results to confirm our findings and to extend our conclusions over a bigger region of the parameter space.     

Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov switching in autoregressive models

ABSTRACT

This paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based inference methods. The approach exploits the moments of normal mixtures implied by the regime-switching process and uses Monte Carlo test techniques to deal with the presence of an autoregressive component in the model specification. The proposed tests have very respectable power in comparison with the optimal tests for Markov-switching parameters of Carrasco et al. (2014 Carrasco, M., Hu, L., Ploberger, W. (2014). Optimal test for Markov switching parameters. Econometrica 82(2):765–784.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and they are also quite attractive owing to their computational simplicity. The new tests are illustrated with an empirical application to an autoregressive model of USA output growth.     

Detecting structural change with heteroskedasticity

The hypothesis of structural stability that the regression coefficients do not change over time is central to all applications of linear regression models. It is rather surprising that existing theory as well as practice focus on testing for structural change under homoskedasticity – that is, regression coefficients may change, but the variances remain the same. Since structural change can, and often does, involve changes in variances, this is a puzzling gap in the literature. Our main focus in this paper is to utilize a newly developed test (MZ) by Maasoumi et al. (2010 Maasoumi, E., Zaman, A., Ahmed, M. (2010). Tests for structural change, aggregation, and homogeneity. Econ Model. 27(6):1382–1391.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) that tests simultaneously for break in regression coefficients as well as in variance. Currently, the sup F test is most widely used for structural change. This has certain optimality properties shown by Andrews (1993 Andrews, D.W.K. (1993). Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica. 61(4):821–856.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, this test assumes homoskedasticity across the structural change. We introduce the sup MZ test which caters to unknown breakpoints, and also compare it to the sup F. Our Monte Carlo results show that sup MZ test incurs only a low cost in case of homoskedasticity while having hugely better performance in case of heteroskedasticity. The simulation results are further supported by providing a real-world application. In real-world datasets, we find that structural change often involves heteroskedasticity. In such cases, the sup F test can fail to detect structural breaks and give misleading results, while the sup MZ test works well. We conclude that the sup MZ test is superior to current methodology for detecting structural change.     

Establishing a new scopic regime: the new landscape painting of Mao’s era

ABSTRACT

After 1949, with ‘serving the people’ established as the basic guideline of art, the reform of traditional landscape painting, which had been appropriated by the cultural elites for thousands of years, was put on the agenda as well. Beginning from the early of 1950s, there were continual debates on the reform of traditional Chinese painting within the art field, through which many artists gradually reached a consensus on the development direction of Chinese painting. At the same time, stimulated by the large-scale xiesheng movement sponsored by the government, Chinese landscape painting changed dramatically in subject, theme, and brushstroke technique, and developed a new style which has its own signifying system. Blending both Chinese and western drawing skills, the new landscape painting successfully created a unique scopic regime, which can establish an organic relationship between personal aesthetic experience and collective historical experience. As a prominent cultural achievement of Mao’s era, the new landscape painting embodies the cultural politics and the technologies of the self at that time.     

Markov regime switching in mean and in fractional integration parameter

We propose a specific general Markov-regime switching estimation both in the long memory parameter d and the mean of a time series. We employ Viterbi algorithm that combines the Viterbi procedures in two state Markov-switching parameter estimation. It is well-known that existence of mean break and long memory in time series can be easily confused with each other in most cases. Thus, we aim at observing the deviation and interaction of mean and d estimates for different cases. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the finite sample performance of the proposed algorithm for a simple mixture model of Markov-switching mean and d changes with respect to the fractional integrating parameters and the mean values for the two regimes.