略析中阿油气合作

中国和阿拉伯国家的石油天然气合作具有厚实的发展基础和突出的经济互补性,其在世纪之交已迈开成功步伐,形成平等互利、双向投资、形式多样的良好态势.这种互利合作建立在互有需求的共同利益基础上,在新世纪“中阿合作论坛”成立等因素的推动下,战略意义深远,发展前景广阔.本文还就深化中阿油气合作提出若干建言.     

国际原油价格变动对中国经济影响的波及效应分析

随着中国进口石油依存度的不断升高,国际原油价格波动将会给中国经济带来怎样的影响与冲击,是值得认真关注并尽快澄清的科学问题。已有研究一方面通过MULTMOD、CNAGE等较复杂模型进行测算分析,另一方面基于竞争型投入产出表进行研究,没有考虑国际原油与国内原油价格的差异。因此,基于非竞争型投入产出表推导给出了价格影响模型,区分了国际原油与国内原油的价格差异,并在修正的中国2002年非竞争型投入产出表的基础上,测算了国际原油价格在2002年平均价格基础上分别提高10%、5美元/桶和10美元/桶后,对其它各部门的价格水平以及价格总指数和消费者价格指数的影响程度,为测算国际原油价格波动对中国的影响提供了科学依据。     

Safe drinking water and satisfaction with environmental quality of life in some oil and gas industry impacted cities of Nigeria

The availability and safety of drinking water and the environmental quality of life was investigated in five cities located in an oil-producing area of Nigeria using questionnaire-based scales, discussion and laboratory tests. Polythene-packaged sachet water and commercial and non-commercial private boreholes largely met the drinking water requirement of the cities. Consumption of sachet water was high (14.0–20.0 points vs. 25.0 points) but regression analysis indicated strong negative relationships with income group (β = −0.75, P < 0.005) and educational level (β = −0.77, P < 0.005) of respondents (658). Private borehole water was prevalent (18.7–19.9 vs. 20.0) while public water supplies were almost non-existent (4.8–5.6 vs. 20.0) in the cities. Vulnerability to contamination in all water sources was indicated following unacceptable counts of total and faecal coliform bacteria in 10–62.5 and 3–25% of samples, respectfully. Respondents were not satisfied with environmental quality of life indicated by the quality of housing, school, health services, refuse disposal, recreation, streetlight, transport and police (3.43–4.01 vs. 10). It is concluded that modernization and industrialization due to the oil and gas industries, tended to increase individualization to the negligence of common services as evidenced by the preponderance of private boreholes and sachet water.     

《北游》：放逐者的自在诉求与理性追索－－兼论冯至的诗学转型

《北游》是冯至诗学发展历程中具有过渡意义的一首长诗。这首诗表达了诗人对时代精神状况的不满 ,与艾略特的《荒原》在本质上相通。陀思妥耶夫斯基的《死屋手记》及加缪有关荒诞与拯救的思想也在该诗中有所体现     

消费者对转基因食用油的认知和购买行为分析———基于无锡市消费者的调查数据

文章以无锡市348名消费者的调查数据为依据,分析消费者对转基因食用油的认知水平,并通过构建Logistic回归模型,分析影响消费者对转基因食用油购买行为的主要因素。调查结果表明,44％的消费者对是否购买转基因食用油持否定态度。在对影响转基因食用油购买行为的因素分析中,性别、收入、受教育程度、家中是否有未成年人等变量均影响了消费者对转基因食用油的购买行为,其中以月人均收入相关性最为显著。     

蓬莱19-3溢油事件中渔民环境抗争的路径分析

基于行动者的角色扮演及其互动关系,本文比较分析了蓬莱19-3溢油事件中渔民环境抗争的理想路径与现实路径.研究发现,在理想路径中,作为公共利益的维护者和权责裁定者,以国家海洋局和地方海事法院等为代表的公诉方的公正是渔民维权实现的核心;但在现实路径中,责任方的强势自我认定和公诉方的执法角色失位是渔民环境抗争受阻的双重阻碍.渔民环境抗争实现的理想路径构建,关键在于建立和完善确保公诉方公正执法、责任方依法履责和中立方客观中立相关的制度法规及其社会环境.     

我国及上海餐饮废油“能源化”的潜力与政策建议

我国城镇地区产生的餐饮废油将超过380万吨/年,如果能够全部用于生产生物柴油,不仅可解决我国生物柴油产能闲置问题、一定程度上缓解能源供求矛盾,也能有效消除废油回流餐桌的危害。要做好餐饮废油能源化工作,必须明确对生物柴油产业的生产销售环节的扶持补贴政策与实施细则;完善制度保障,实行餐饮废油能源化产业特别资助政策;建立回收处理产业链和监管系统,加强餐饮废油能源化的政府规制;开展大中城市餐饮废油的能源化试点,扩大餐饮废油资源的收集范围。     

Chamber music and organization theory: some typical organizational phenomena seen under the microscope

In this paper I suggest, on the one hand, that organization theory offers an interpretation of the reality of arts producing organizations and, on the other, that the empirical analysis of these realities can supply new input for organization theory. As a practical example of artistic production I refer to an international chamber music festival. Close inspection of chamber music will reveal characteristics that apply to any type of organization. I begin by looking at the nature of arts management and the arts manager. I go on to analyse the characteristics of the production process in the performing arts, which can be seen as communication taking place on three levels: between audience and performers (concept of ‘prosumer’); within the performing group (‘listening ability’); between the author of the written text and the performer/interpreter (‘concept of value’). I finish by showing how in a symboliccultural framework the features identified in the paper can feed back into organization studies.

Time present and time past Are both perhaps present in time future, and time future contained in time past.

T.S. Eliot, Four Quartets     

生态批评视域下的《荒原》

首先分析了《荒原》中自然生态危机的表现以及《荒原》人物身上所体现出的精神危机,随后通过对诗歌中各种代表性人物的分析,指出人类的精神生态危机才是更深层次的生态危机,最后提出解决精神生态危机的最好办法,就是要找到宗教信仰。只有人与自然和谐相处,人类才能最终得到拯救。     

The Ocean Ranger Oil Rig Disaster: A Risk Analysis

This paper analyzes quantitatively the design of the Ocean Ranger off-shore oil drilling rig that capsized and sank on February 15, 1982 off the coast of Canada. A review of the actual disaster is also included based on evidence gathered by the Canadian Royal Commission. The risk analysis includes the construction of a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) table, a fault tree, and a quantitative evaluation including common cause failure of the rig components. In the case of the Ocean Ranger ballast control system, it was shown that the analysis was able both to successfully model the catastrophic system failure of the portholes, the actual system failure mode, and identify a common cause failure mode of the pump system. This study represents an application of reliability and risk techniques to the oil services industry.