辽宁省阜新地区花生生产投入产出分析——阜新蒙古族自治县花生生产调研报告

以辽宁省阜新蒙古族自治县158位农户花生生产投入产出的截面数据为样本,运用柯布—道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数模型进行多元线性回归,分析了阜新蒙古族自治县地区花生生产各投入要素对产量的影响,结果表明:花生的种植面积和物质费用是影响花生产出的最重要因素,化肥、农药和除草剂的投入存在过量使用现象,劳动力投入对花生产出影响不显著。地膜覆盖对花生产出起到一定的正向作用。     

Risk Analysis for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in Extreme Environments

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan‐Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January–March 2009.     

How Should Autonomous Cars Drive? A Preference for Defaults in Moral Judgments Under Risk and Uncertainty

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) promise to make traffic safer, but their societal integration poses ethical challenges. What behavior of AVs is morally acceptable in critical traffic situations when consequences are only probabilistically known (a situation of risk) or even unknown (a situation of uncertainty)?  How do people retrospectively evaluate the behavior of an AV in situations in which a road user has been harmed? We addressed these questions in two empirical studies (N = 1,638) that approximated the real‐world conditions under which AVs operate by varying the degree of risk and uncertainty of the situation. In Experiment 1, subjects learned that an AV had to decide between staying in the lane or swerving. Each action could lead to a collision with another road user, with some known or unknown likelihood. Subjects’ decision preferences and moral judgments varied considerably with specified probabilities under risk, yet less so under uncertainty. The results suggest that staying in the lane and performing an emergency stop is considered a reasonable default, even when this action does not minimize expected loss. Experiment 2 demonstrated that if an AV collided with another road user, subjects’ retrospective evaluations of the default action were also more robust against unwanted outcome and hindsight effects than the alternative swerve maneuver. The findings highlight the importance of investigating moral judgments under risk and uncertainty in order to develop policies that are societally acceptable even under critical conditions.     

sCARy! Risk Perceptions in Autonomous Driving: The Influence of Experience on Perceived Benefits and Barriers

The increasing development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) influences the future of transportation. Beyond the potential benefits in terms of safety, efficiency, and comfort, also potential risks of novel driving technologies need to be addressed. In this article, we explore risk perceptions toward connected and autonomous driving in comparison to conventional driving. In order to gain a deeper understanding of individual risk perceptions, we adopted a two‐step empirical procedure. First, focus groups ( $N=17$) were carried out to identify relevant risk factors for autonomous and connected driving. Further, a questionnaire was developed, which was answered by 516 German participants. In the questionnaire, three driving technologies (connected, autonomous, conventional) were evaluated via semantic differential (rating scale to identify connotative meaning of technologies). Second, participants rated perceived risk levels (for data, traffic environment, vehicle, and passenger) and perceived benefits and barriers of connected/autonomous driving. Since previous experience with automated functions of driver assistance systems can have an impact on the evaluation, three experience groups have been formed. The effect of experience on benefits and barrier perceptions was also analyzed. Risk perceptions were significantly smaller for conventional driving compared to connected/autonomous driving. With increasing experience, risk perception decreases for novel driving technologies with one exception: the perceived risk in handling data is not influenced by experience. The findings contribute to an understanding of risk perception in autonomous driving, which helps to foster a successful implementation of AVs on the market and to develop public information strategies.     

“董永故里”新探源

"董永故事"是中国古代"四大民间传说"之一,董永籍贯也有"山东博兴"、"江苏东台"、"湖北孝感"等多种说法.其实"董永故里"在山西运城地区的万荣县小淮村,那一带有"董氏家族"、"董永墓"、"槐荫坡"、"石门桥"、"傅家庄"等完整的"董永故事原生地"环境.有关方志史料还有"魏·孝子董永"的记载,可见"董永故事"的播迁,是因为战国末年战争动乱引起的移民所造成.     

河州调查--对民族地区经济社会发展的思考

甘肃省临夏回族自治州经济社会发展状况,实际上是民族地区经济社会发展现状的一个缩影,其反映了民族地区发展滞后的严峻事实,在民族地区具有普遍性.通过对临夏州的个案剖析,提醒我们必须高度重视加快民族地区的发展,以新的发展思路加快民族地区经济社会发展.现阶段民族地区的各类矛盾和问题,主要是发展问题.这一问题能否得到有效解决的关键,就在于中央不仅要从政策上给予支持,而且还要从制度上加以创新,更要从发展战略上做出重大调整.     

“湘西一种凄馨意，彩笔争如沈凤凰”——论沈从文笔下的“湘西世界”

沈从文笔下的湘西世界凄馨而迷人,具有永恒的艺术魅力."湘西世界"的原型本身也很神奇.沈从文是湘西各族人民共同的伟大儿子,"湘西世界"是他的赤诚奉献,是"湘西文化"形象化的"百科全书".     

西藏自治区人口较少民族发展问题研究

人口较少民族因其居民较少、大多居住在边境区或者偏远区域、以农业生产为主等原因,导致区域社会、经济发展滞后,与其他少数民族相比,有更大的特殊性。论文以西藏自治区人口较少民族为例,分析了这一区域人口较少民族社会经济现状,认为社会事业发展滞后尤其是教育文化事业发展缓慢是限制区域发展的主要因素,另一方面,人口较少民族人口增长较快又加剧了社会事业发展的困难,人口较少民族聚居区发展中面临财政、人才等方面的困难。基于此,文章从社会事业发展、人才引进、财政补贴等方面探讨西藏人口较少民族发展对策,为西藏边境地区发展及＂兴边富民＂政策的落实提供依据。     

论湘西民族地方文献数据库的建设

论证了构建湘西民族地方文献数据库的必要性、可行性和意义,探讨了湘西民族地方文献数据库的基本内容和建设办法。     

湘西土家族情歌的语言艺术

湘西土家情歌是湘西主要的民间文学样式,它通俗质朴、风趣含蓄、富有韵律、形象生动,具有着浓厚的艺术氛围。