Bayesian change points analysis for earthquakes body wave magnitude

Recently, the world has experienced an increased number of major earthquakes. The Zagros belt is among the most seismically active mountain ranges in the world. Due to Kuwait's location in the southwest of the Zagros belt, it is affected by relative tectonic movements in the neighboring region. It is vital to assess the Zagros seismic risks in Kuwait using recent data and coordinate with the competent authorities to reduce those risks. Using the body wave magnitude (Mb) data collected in Kuwait, we want to assess the recent changes in the magnitude of earthquakes and its variations in Kuwait's vicinity. We built a change point model to detect the significant changes in its parameters. This paper applies a hierarchical Bayesian technique and derives the marginal posterior density function for the Mb. Our interest lies in identifying a shift in the mean of a single or multiple change points as well as the changes in the variation. Building upon the model and its parameters for the 2002–2003 data, we detected three change points. The first, second and third change points occurred in September 2002, April 2003 and August 2003, respectively.     

灾难时刻，文学人类学在场——评《灾难与人文关怀》

《灾难与人文关怀》一书以文学人类学的学科背景为依托,展现了对汶川地震的人类学考察和民族志书写,在关于汶川地震的出版物中,具有独特的学术视野和学术价值。     

灾难表述：汶川地震的文本呈现

灾难一直是文学表述的母题,汶川地震掀起了超越以往的灾难书写热潮。文章总结了有关汶川地震的文学书写,分析了各种体裁的表述特点,探讨了其精神不足。     

A Social Decision Analysis of the Earthquake Safety Problem: The Case of Existing Los Angeles Buildings

In this paper we propose a framework for conducting a decision analysis for a societal problem such as earthquake safety. The application deals with the formulation and evaluation of alternative policies for the seismic safety problem faced by the city of Los Angeles with regard to its old masonry buildings. A social decision analysis compares the costs and benefits of the alternative policies from the viewpoints of the impacted constituents. The emphasis is on identifying acceptable policy that considers the interests of the impacted constituents and provides incentives for their cooperation. Alternatives ranging from strict regulation to free market are examined. In order to evaluate the trade-offs between additional cost and savings in lives, a direct willingness-to-pay and an economic approach, based on property value differential, are used. Recommendations range from strict regulation for the residential and critical buildings (schools, hospitals, fire stations, etc.) to simply informing the occupants (in the case of commercial and industrial buildings) of the risks involved.     

浅谈地震次生灾害对现代城市的影响

地震次生灾害对城市造成的破坏和影响是极为严重的 ,有时甚至超过地震直接造成的灾害损失。因此 ,充分认识和防范地震次生灾害对城市的冲击和影响 ,对防御和减轻城市灾害具有举足轻重的作用     

关于推进我国巨灾债券的研究

我国是巨灾损失最严重的国家之一,巨灾风险的潜在压力巨大,推进巨灾债券的开展具有积极意义。在我国具体操作环境下,开展巨灾债券所面临的现实问题主要包括市场、技术、法律监管、税收等。因此,"营造环境、建立指数体系、做好发行试点、稳步推进",是我国发展巨灾债券的思路。     

Use of domestic craft for meaning-making post-disaster

Much of the post-disaster research has focused on the vulnerability of affected populations and deleterious effects of such events on mental health, living conditions and employment. Little scholarly consideration has been given to investigating the resourceful activities of everyday living that occupants of disaster-ridden locations use to strengthen coping and aid recovery. This article reports on research conducted after the Christchurch 2010–2011 earthquakes aimed at capturing how people have used crafting as a means of connecting with others and aiding recovery. Using participant voices from five focus group and nine individual interviews, findings from this research show how Cantabrians used the activity of crafting to bring people together, generating a form of healing and recovery. Incorporating symbolism, expressions of compassion and restoring broken materials within their crafting helped participants generate strong and positive responses to a traumatic series of events. The benefits of these crafting efforts were realised on both individual and community levels, signalling the importance of creativity in disaster response work. While reference to domestic crafting has been largely absent from earlier research on disaster recovery we demonstrate how this medium has been powerful in enabling individuals to forge their own recovery after the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake.     

叙事治疗:地震灾后青少年心理重建的新范式

作为心理谘商专业第三波的叙事治疗模式,是深受后现代思潮以及社会建构理论影响的新兴心理咨询与辅导的方法。通过叙事治疗来开展灾后青少年的心理重建,不仅可以让青少年从地震及其所造成的心理创伤中走出来,更可以激发青少年战胜困难、抗震救灾的勇气和斗志,从而以更为积极的心态实现持续的心理重建。因此,叙事治疗正逐渐成为灾后青少年心理重建的新范式。     

震后初期应急物资配送的模糊多目标选址-多式联运问题

针对震后初期应急物资配送系统优化问题,考虑应急物资需求模糊情况下应急物资配送中心选址和应急物资多式联运安排的集成决策,以应急物资配送总时间最短和受灾点应急物资未满足的总损失最小为目标,建立了一个震后应急物资配送的多目标选址-多式联运问题优化模型,设计了一种采用二维编码的非支配排序多目标遗传算法,并对该算法进行了复杂性分析。算例分析结果表明:该算法可以在得到Pareto前沿的同时,根据决策者偏好在Pareto前沿面上给出各种优化决策方案。     

基于投入-产出模型的灾后经济非均衡与路径恢复研究

由于现有的投入-产出(IO)模型不能很好地模拟灾后经济出现的非均衡状态,因此在开放的IO模型(x=Ax+f)中引入劳动力市场(L=lx)并重建封闭模型(x=M·x),可以更好地通过经济系统内部劳动力与最终需求和总产出之间的内在联系,反映灾后经济循环流网络的非均衡状态,为恢复重建建立起点。本文在前人的研究基础上,完善了封闭IO模型中真实工资F矩阵的计算方法;通过在IO模型中引入灾害损失系数模拟灾后经济的非均衡状态,并以情境分析的方法寻找灾后可能的恢复路径;接着以2007年四川省投入-产出表计算2008年汶川地震造成的产出损失并模拟了可能的恢复路径,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果表明,该模型可以为政府在发生大灾后迅速找到恢复"瓶颈"、做出科学重建决策提供理论依据。