伊拉克战争与公众参与中国中东外交政策制定

伊拉克战争为公众参与中国中东外交政策制定提供了机会,参与群体前所未有地扩大,参与途径全面拓展,不同意见的表达开始涌现,公众主动对外交建言献策,开始有意施加民意压力。更为重要的是,公众意见开始成为外交部门对外传播国家主张的背景支撑和参考因素。公众因素开始成为中国制定中东外交决策时需要考虑的重要参数之一,但其影响力有限,更多是参考和制约作用,其影响正处于发展之中。     

The bumpy road to ‘becoming’: capturing the stories that teenage mothers told about their journey into motherhood

Understanding the experience of women who become mothers during their teenage years is central to ensuring that the support that is offered is appropriate to meet their needs. This paper reports on a small part of a larger ethnographic study that captured the lived experience of young mothers who were between the ages of 16 and 19 years that potentially typifies and illuminates the experiences of young women who become mothers in their teenage years. By collecting data from narrative interviews as well as participant and non‐participant observations over an extended period of time it was possible to identify how the young women experienced a range of difficulties as they made their transition into motherhood. Drawing on the findings, this paper argues that this transition for teenage mothers can be significantly different from the experience of older mothers, and it identifies the importance of appropriate support to mediate the challenges that they face. Understanding the young women's journey to ‘becoming’ is critical when planning services because if their experience of support is negative, it can lead to increased levels of maternal stress and reluctance to engage with support services.     

西晋玄风与咏鸟赋的意象创造

谈玄之风始于正始年间,持续至东晋末期。玄风对两晋文学产生了重要的影响。受玄风影响,西晋时期咏鸟赋的创作较为繁荣,其意象类型主要有:"玄鸟"意象、"逸鸟"意象、"儒鸟"意象等。三种鸟意象的出现显示出西晋时期的咏鸟赋创作既与政治密切相关,也与当时玄学风气密不可分。     

On the Post-90s＇ Modern Health Concept from the Perspective of Public Hygienic Events

伴随社会经济的迅猛发展和城市化步伐的加快，生态破坏、环境污染等问题日益加剧。生物界自然平衡状态的打破导致近年来我国各类公共卫生危机频发，处于公共卫生事件的高发期，“90后”作为一个特殊的青少年群体，由于其身心机能发育尚未成熟，不但是此类事件中最主要的易感人群，更容易产生各类心理障碍与行为问题。现代健康观念的树立和综合健康素养的提升在这一阶段尤为关键。研究发现，“90后”青少年的健康观念趋于科学理性，健康自我管理能力和习惯养成有待提升：对健康危机的忧患意识较强，危机状态下的心理承受能力较弱；具备一定的公民责任意识和行为自律意识，但面对一些较为复杂的社会现象，现代法制观念和人文关怀意识仍有所欠缺     

Evidence for hedge fund predictability from a multivariate Student's t full-factor GARCH model

Extending previous work on hedge fund return predictability, this paper introduces the idea of modelling the conditional distribution of hedge fund returns using Student's t full-factor multivariate GARCH models. This class of models takes into account the stylized facts of hedge fund return series, that is, heteroskedasticity, fat tails and deviations from normality. For the proposed class of multivariate predictive regression models, we derive analytic expressions for the score and the Hessian matrix, which can be used within classical and Bayesian inferential procedures to estimate the model parameters, as well as to compare different predictive regression models. We propose a Bayesian approach to model comparison which provides posterior probabilities for various predictive models that can be used for model averaging. Our empirical application indicates that accounting for fat tails and time-varying covariances/correlations provides a more appropriate modelling approach of the underlying dynamics of financial series and improves our ability to predict hedge fund returns.     

浅谈洁净手术部在医院基建工程中的特殊需求

随着现代医学的发展,洁净手术部成为各手术学科建设与发展的重要前提与支柱,对原有手术室功能进行改造势在必行。为了实现医院洁净手术部向信息化、智能化、集约化发展,从洁净手术部的选址、功能等方面介绍了当前省内部分二级以上医疗单位洁净手术室建设的新进展,总结近年来在洁净手术室规划、建设过程中的经验,为现代医院基建工程管理提供借鉴,保障医院医疗、教学、科研工作的顺利开展。     

跨文化的解码与建构--论美国汉学家史景迁的孔子研究

美国著名汉学家史景迁(Jonathan D. Spence)从文化认知、文化比较的研究视域出发，对孔子进行了跨文化解读与传播。在史景迁“去偶像化”的观照方式下，孔子被解码、建构为具备鲜明个性特质的人文主义者及令人尊重的教育者形象。同时，史景迁致力于厘清西方一般认知中对孔子及其思想的诸多误读，并努力唤起西方受众对孔子当代意义的认同。     

Improved approaches to interval estimation of effective doses for a logistic dose-response curve

Asymptotic confidence (delta) intervals and intervals based upon the use of Fieller's theorem are alternative methods for constructing intervals for the <$>\gamma<$>% effective doses (ED<$>_\gamma<$>). Sitter and Wu (1993) provided a comparison of the two approaches for the ED<$>_{50}<$>, for the case in which a logistic dose response curve is assumed. They showed that the Fieller intervals are generally superior. In this paper, we introduce two new families of intervals, both of which include the delta and Fieller intervals as special cases. In addition we consider interval estimation of the ED<$>_{90}<$> as well as the ED<$>_{50}<$>. We provide a comparison of the various methods for the problem of constructing a confidence interval for the ED<$>_\gamma<$>.     

The Complete Exact Null Distribution of Spearman's Rho for n = 12(1)18

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Rho, is a widely used nonparametric measure of association. Complete, exact tables of the null distribution are calculated and presented for n = 12 to 18.