标准化政策对主食产业化的影响

实现主食产业化发展，实行产品的标准化是关键。以豪特林（Hotelling）线形选址模型和塞洛普（Salop）的圆周模型为基础，根据具体情况进行修改后建立一个三阶段的博弈模型讨论主食企业和政府的行为问题。     

Reliability of global sensitivity indices

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an essential ingredient of model development and applications. For many uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques, sensitivity indices are calculated based on a relatively large sample to measure the importance of parameters in their contributions to uncertainties in model outputs. To statistically compare their importance, it is necessary that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques provide standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices. In this paper, a delta method is used to analytically approximate standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices for a popular sensitivity analysis method, the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Standard errors estimated based on the delta method were compared with those estimated based on 20 sample replicates. We found that the delta method can provide a good approximation for the standard errors of both first-order and higher-order sensitivity indices. Finally, based on the standard error approximation, we also proposed a method to determine a minimum sample size to achieve the desired estimation precision for a specified sensitivity index. The standard error estimation method presented in this paper can make the FAST analysis computationally much more efficient for complex models.     

Comparison of causal effect estimators under exposure misclassification

Over the past decades, various principles for causal effect estimation have been proposed, all differing in terms of how they adjust for measured confounders: either via traditional regression adjustment, by adjusting for the expected exposure given those confounders (e.g., the propensity score), or by inversely weighting each subject's data by the likelihood of the observed exposure, given those confounders. When the exposure is measured with error, this raises the question whether these different estimation strategies might be differently affected and whether one of them is to be preferred for that reason. In this article, we investigate this by comparing inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) estimators and doubly robust estimators for the exposure effect in linear marginal structural mean models (MSM) with G-estimators, propensity score (PS) adjusted estimators and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators for the exposure effect in linear regression models. We find analytically that these estimators are equally affected when exposure misclassification is independent of the confounders, but not otherwise. Simulation studies reveal similar results for time-varying exposures and when the model of interest includes a logistic link.     

内容出自形式吗——略评哈贝马斯的“对话伦理学”

近代西方"内容出自形式"神话的构建历史,可从康德"绝对命令"开始,直到罗尔斯的"社会契约"论和哈贝马斯的"对话伦理学"。哈氏"对话伦理学"的纯粹形式倾向,体现在"交往的不可避免性,论证性原则,最后根据的问题"等三项基本要义之中。"形式不可能产生内容",因而对哈氏神话必须进行反思和批判,基于经验、内容及人的法权,尝试构建实体论证的程序正义论。     

Narratives of Low-Income Mothers in Addiction Recovery Centers: Motherhood and the Treatment Experience

ABSTRACT

This study examines the narratives shared by low-income women in addiction recovery centers about the meaning they attach to being a parent in recovery and how they view current program models that include children in daily treatment. Their stories reflect the centrality of the mothering role to women in recovery and offer insights that can guide treatment and program planning with families.     

Standards of Care for the Treatment of Adult Sex Offenders

Summary

A proposed version of these standards was first produced and published in the Journal of Offender Rehabilitation through input from professional meetings (Coleman and Dwyer, 1990). Since that time, The Standards of Care were reviewed and revised by a group of professionals and unanimously endorsed by voice vote by the participants in the Third International Congress on the Treatment of Sex Offenders held in Minneapolis, Minnesota, September 20–22, 1994. These Standards were again published in the Journal of Offender Rehabilitation (Coleman, Dwyer, Abel, Berner, Breiling, Hindman, Honey-Knopp, Langevin, and Pfäfflin, 1996). Those Standards have been subsequently reviewed by the current authors at the Fifth International Conference on the Treatment of Sex Offenders held in Caracas, Venezuela, March 22–27, 1998 and minor modifications and changes were incorporated into this version. The authors invite feedback from readers. Further revisions are anticipated and will be reviewed by current committee members and at future International Conferences on the Treatment of Sexual Offenders.     

Religiosity as a Predictor of Successful Post-Treatment Abstinence for African-American Clients

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to examine the role of religiosity as a predictor of post-treatment abstinence. A sample of 96 African-American clients receiving community-based outpatient alcoholism treatment were interviewed at treatment entry and three months later. Achieving complete abstinence was predicted from client gender and 17 other predictors, including 6 substance-related factors, 7 psychosocial and health variables, and 4 religiosity/spirituality measures. Bivariate analyses showed that abstainers drank less prior to treatment, had more prior formal treatment and AA involvement, practiced their religion more regularly, and scored higher on measures of both spirituality and extrinsic religiosity. In addition, women were more likely to achieve abstinence. Forward entry binary logistic regression revealed that, controlling for client gender and pre-treatment consumption, only regular practice of one's religion/faith significantly predicted abstinence. Recommendations include (1) the need for research to evaluate if the current findings can be generalized across race/ethnicity and religious affiliation and (2) directing more attention to clients' religiosity in alcoholism treatment.     

Theoretical Factors Influencing Adolescent Sexual Behavior: Evidence from a Rural Sample Living in Poverty

ABSTRACT

This study of 414 adolescents who resided in rural Arkansas families receiving AFDC was designed to investigate what theoretical factors predicted frequency of sexual intercourse in the past year prior to the study and number of lifetime sexual partners among males and females. Multivariate analyses indicated that elements of bonding were important to the sexual behavior of females, but not males. On the other hand, feelings of frustration influenced male sexual behavior only. The number of sex partners was increased by associations with sexually active peers for both genders while only females made excuses. The only factor which was associated with both sexual behaviors among both genders was having sex to have a baby to love or to draw a partner closer. The family social work implications of these findings were discussed.     

Victim's Response Cycle: A Model for Understanding the Incestuous Victim-Offender Relationship

ABSTRACT

The victim-response cycle is a theoretical and clinical model that can be utilized to assist victims in their healing from the trauma of sexual abuse. This model focuses on the specific aspects of the relationship that victims have with their offenders, particularly in incest cases, which contribute to the degree of trauma that victims experience. This relationship can also become the model for other relationships as the victim matures, and the victim-response cycle can be used to assist these adult survivors in understanding their difficulties with adult intimate relationships. This model addresses aspects of attachment and learned coping responses to assist clinicians in treating symptomatic behavior. While severe trauma is rarely treatable with a short-term approach, this model can assist in providing clients and clinicians with tools for symptomatic relief, which may be achievable in a short-term setting. This model has not been examined empirically, but it has been utilized in several outpatient practices in the Midwest with positive clinical results. A case example demonstrating the use of this model is also presented.     

Assessing the Long-Term Effects of EMDR: Results from an 18-Month Follow-Up Study with Adult Female Survivors of CSA

ABSTRACT

This 18-month follow-up study builds on the findings of a randomized experimental evaluation that found qualified support for the short-term effectiveness of Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) in reducing trauma symptoms among adult female survivors of childhood sexual abuse (CSA). The current study provides preliminary evidence that the therapeutic benefits of EMDR for adult female survivors of CSA can be maintained over an 18-month period. Furthermore, there is some support for the suggestion that EMDR did so more efficiently and provided a greater sense of trauma resolution than did routine individual therapy.