On deviations between kernel-type estimators of a distribution density in p ⩾ 2 independent samples

In the article, the tests are constructed for the hypotheses that p ? 2 independent samples have the same distribution density (homogeneity hypothesis) or have the same well-defined distribution density (goodness-of-fit test). The limiting power of the constructed tests is found for some local “close” alternatives.     

Market structure,bank conduct and bank performance: Evidence from ASEAN

Whether banks in a concentrated market increase their profits through monopoly pricing is a question of prime concern for antitrust policies. We explore this question by introducing the role of bank conduct into the structure–performance relationship. We apply Two-step System GMM dynamic panel model to commercial banks in the Association of South East Asian Nations over the period of 1999–2014. The results indicate that the higher profits in concentrated banking industries are partially attributable to the anti-competitive conduct of banks. These findings are robust across alternative measures of market structure and bank conduct, and different time horizons. The implications of these findings require regulators to make sure that the consolidation policy for ASEAN is achieving its purpose – i.e. financial stability – and not allowing the banks to earn monopoly rents.     

Investigating spatial variations in access to childcare provision using network‐based Geographic Information System models

A “flagship” policy outlined in the current Welsh Government's 2016 Programme for Government aims to provide 30 hours of free early education and childcare per week to the working parents of three‐ and four‐year‐olds. However, in common with many other countries, there is currently a lack of detail regarding existing levels of childcare provision that can act as a benchmark with which to examine the impacts of this policy. This article addresses an urgent need to understand current levels of provision at detailed geographical scales so as to provide an accurate picture of early childhood education and care across Wales. By drawing on Geographic Information System network models we compare the spatial distribution of providers with that of potential demand arising from those population groups targeted in the childcare offer. These provide a simple to understand supply‐to‐demand ratio that overcome the limitations of ratios derived for arbitrary administrative boundaries. The types of map‐based outputs that emanate from such an approach are demonstrated to provide more insights into spatial patterns of accessibility to current levels of childcare provision. These have guided the choice of pilot studies that will inform the roll out of the full childcare offer by the Welsh Government in 2020.     

影子银行对货币政策有效性的影响研究

影子银行体系的扩张削弱了货币政策宏观调控的效果。基于影子银行资金运作模式以及有限理性假设下的投资者偏好理论,从货币的流向入手,结合改进的货币乘数方程分析了影子银行对货币政策有效性的影响。理论分析表明:影子银行通过对现金漏损率、存款准备金率以及活期存款转化为定期存款比率的影响间接进行信用创造;有限理性视角下,投资者存在偏好反转的可能,从而影子银行能够通过影响投资者资产配置决策改变货币乘数,进而弱化货币政策的有效性。实证分析发现,影子银行体系的扩张对货币供应量、利率水平、货币乘数等货币政策中介变量产生了显著的影响,进而影响了货币政策的有效性。据此,提出扩大法定存款准备金的计提范围、加快完善利率市场化制度、创新货币政策工具和稳定投资者信心等建议。     

Bain: a program for Bayesian testing of order constrained hypotheses in structural equation models

This paper presents a new statistical method and accompanying software for the evaluation of order constrained hypotheses in structural equation models (SEM). The method is based on a large sample approximation of the Bayes factor using a prior with a data-based correlational structure. An efficient algorithm is written into an R package to ensure fast computation. The package, referred to as Bain, is easy to use for applied researchers. Two classical examples from the SEM literature are used to illustrate the methodology and software.     

The score test for the two‐sample occupancy model

The score test statistic from the observed information is easy to compute numerically. Its large sample distribution under the null hypothesis is well known and is equivalent to that of the score test based on the expected information, the likelihood‐ratio test and the Wald test. However, several authors have noted that under the alternative hypothesis this no longer holds and in particular the score statistic from the observed information can take negative values. We extend the anthology on the score test to a problem of interest in ecology when studying species occurrence. This is the comparison of two zero‐inflated binomial random variables from two independent samples under imperfect detection. An analysis of eigenvalues associated with the score test in this setting assists in understanding why using the observed information matrix in the score test can be problematic. We demonstrate through a combination of simulations and theoretical analysis that the power of the score test calculated under the observed information decreases as the populations being compared become more dissimilar. In particular, the score test based on the observed information is inconsistent. Finally, we propose a modified rule that rejects the null hypothesis when the score statistic is computed using the observed information is negative or is larger than the usual chi‐square cut‐off. In simulations in our setting this has power that is comparable to the Wald and likelihood ratio tests and consistency is largely restored. Our new test is easy to use and inference is possible. Supplementary material for this article is available online as per journal instructions.     

加快推进中国手语翻译的职业化——基于新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的思考

突发的新冠病毒肺炎疫情凸显了进一步推动手语翻译职业化、做好手语应急服务人才储备的紧迫性。在这一时期,信息无障碍工作得到了高度重视,科技手段助力手语翻译行业发展,民间手语翻译员自发加入抗疫工作,取得了不少成果,但也暴露出一些问题。本文对中国手语翻译职业化的历程进行了回顾与评述,对手语翻译人才的培养现状进行了描述与总结,并结合此次疫情中手语翻译的情势与问题,提出了加强法律法规建设、翻译教育自我革新及开创手语翻译中国模式等政策建议。     

Heterogeneity of variance and biased hypothesis tests

This study examined the influence of heterogeneity of variance on Type I error rates and power of the independent-samples Student's t-test of equality of means on samples of scores from normal and 10 non-normal distributions. The same test of equality of means was performed on corresponding rank-transformed scores. For many non-normal distributions, both versions produced anomalous power functions, resulting partly from the fact that the hypothesis test was biased, so that under some conditions, the probability of rejecting H ₀ decreased as the difference between means increased. In all cases where bias occurred, the t-test on ranks exhibited substantially greater bias than the t-test on scores. This anomalous result was independent of the more familiar changes in Type I error rates and power attributable to unequal sample sizes combined with unequal variances.     

Power studies of tests for uniformity,II

Results from a power study of six statistics for testing that a sample is from a uniform distribution on the unit interval (0,1) are reported. The test statistics are all well-known and each of them was originally proposed because they should have high power against some alternative distributions. The tests considered are the Pearson probability product test, the Neyman smooth test, the Sukhatme test, the Durbin-Kolmogorov test, the Kuiper test, and the Sherman test. Results are given for each of these tests against each of four classes of alternatives. Also, the most powerful test against each member of the first three alternatives is obtained, and the powers of these tests are given for the same sample sizes as for the six general "omnibus" test statistics. These values constitute a "power envelope" against which all tests can be compared. The Neyman smooth tests with 2nd and 4th degree polynomials are found to have good power and are recommended as general tests for uniformity.