Mixture formulations of a bivariate negative binomial distribution with applications

This paper considers further mixture formulations of the bivariate negative binomial (BNB) distribution of Edwards and Gurland (1961) and Subrahmaniam (1966). These formulations and some known ones are applied (1) to obtain a bivariate generalized negative binomial (BGNB) distribution of Bhattacharya (1966), (2) to establish a connection between the accident-proneness models given by the BNB, BGNB and Bhattacharya's bivariate distributions, and (3) to compute the grade correlation and distribution function of the Wicksell-Kibble bivariate gamma distribution.     

Statistical Evaluation of Population Data for Calculation of Radioactive Material Transport Accident Risks

Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plume of radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km) of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, and Urban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from the hypothetical accident site. We present a GIS-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.     

Preliminary evaluation of the victorian zero blood alcohol content legislation at alcohol times: an australian case study in intervention analysis

The Victorian state government implemented the zero blood alcohol content legislation on 22 May 1984 to reduce the number of road accidents for novice drivers and riders. Under this legislation no learner, first year probationary, disqualified or unlicensed driver or rider can drive or ride with any alcohol in his/her blood. The serious casualty accidents during the alcohol times were used in this study as surrogates for alcohol-involved accidents. A preliminary evaluation of the legislation was made only for car drivers involved in serious casualty accidents at alcohol times, using the intervention time series analysis. The effect was measured over the eighteen month post-legislation period: July 1984 to December 1985.The analysis indicated that there was no effect of the legislation for target group drivers at alcohol times as compared with the increase which would have resulted in the absence of the zero BAC legislation in Victoria. Power analysis of the study has been carried out and it showed that the power of the analysis was very poor.     

关于旁站监理的法律问题研究

旁站监理是法定的监理方式之一,但是,对其法律地位的理解尚有误区;对其职责范围立法上存在着“新技术、新材料”旁站监理的真空地带;对其不同情形下的法律责任的性质、形式、承担缺乏系统的研究。文章依据现行相关立法,结合工程监理实际系统探讨了旁站监理的相关法律问题。     

交通肇事罪若干法律问题探析

现实中，对交通肇事罪涉嫌犯罪的初步认定依赖于对人员伤亡、财产损失以及事故责任的认定，而这些因素对犯罪嫌疑人的定罪与量刑具有决定性的意义。从现行刑事法律规定的交通肇事罪的犯罪构成、对交通肇事罪的定罪与量刑以及影响交通肇事刑事责任的行政性因素进行分析，有助于澄清交通肇事罪的若干重要法律问题。     

The Theory of Risk Homeostasis: Implications for Safety and Health

No strategy for countermeasure design or future directions of research in the areas of human behavior which leads to traffic accidents or lifestyle-related diseases can be rationally developed without an acceptable working theory of human behavior in these domains. For this purpose, an attempt has been made to conceptually integrate the available evidence with respect to the role of human behavior in the causation of road accidents. From this integrative effort it would seem that the accident rate is ultimately dependent on one factor only, the target level of risk in the population concerned which acts as the reference variable in a homeostatic process relating accident rate to human motivation. Various policy tactics for the purpose of modifying this target level of risk have been pointed out and the theory of risk homeostasis has been speculatively extended to the areas of lifestyle-dependent morbidity and mortality.     

道路交通事故责任认定的几个法律问题探讨

道路交通事故责任认定是技术鉴定 ,但同时也是公安机关的一种具体行政行为。公安机关对责任认定的重新认定是一种行政复议行为 ,应保护与交通事故处理有利害关系的当事人利益。对有关责任认定的行政诉讼应区别情况处理。人民法院审理案件中 ,对责任认定不予采信时 ,应委托公安机关进行重新认定 ,不能迳行否定。     

Assessment for Catastrophic Risks

Records of nonoccurrence of catastrophic accidents from technologically based industrial operations, such as nuclear power generation and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation are sometimes cited as evidence of the safety of such operations. The appropriateness and inappropriateness of different types of models of accident processes for these systems are discussed. Selectivity biases in defining both die numerator and denominator for accident rates are shown to be important to the size of the estimated rate and these are illustrated by examples. Inferential approaches to estimating a rate based on zero occurrences are briefly discussed. The conclusion reached is that a record of zero occurrences is of cold comfort in ruling out catastrophic events. Experience, unless it is interpreted by strong models and assumptions, helps little to establish very small probabilities of a catastrophe.     

Risk Perceptions and Value of a Statistical Life for Air Pollution and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Bangkok,Thailand

This paper presents results of two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Bangkok measuring individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce mortality risk arising from two risk contexts: air pollution traffic accidents Results from the risk perception survey disclose that respondents view the two risks differently. WTP to reduce air pollution risk is influenced by degrees of dread, severity, controllability and personal exposure, while WTP to reduce traffic accident risk is influenced by perceived immediate occurrence. Nevertheless, the value of a statistical life (VSL) for both air pollution and traffic accidents are comparable (US$0.74 to $1.32 million and US$0.87 to $1.48 million, respectively). This indicates that the risk perception factor alone has little impact on the VSL, a finding similar to previous studies using program choice indifferences.JEL Classification: I18, D61, J17, J28     

道路交通事故抑制之对策研究

近年，道路交通事故日趋严重，交通安全形势更加严峻。我国道路交通安全的出路在于加强交通管理，做好事故预防，同时积极探索有效的事故抑制措施。本文试图从改善汽车结构，尽可能提高汽车行驶的安全性，组织事故后的紧急救援，以及追究肇事者的法律责任等方面加以研究，寻求抑制事故发生和事故发生后尽可能减少事故损害后果的有效方法。