Patterns of individual change and program satisfaction in a positive parenting program for parents at psychosocial risk

Despite the evidence of effectiveness of positive parenting programs, little is known about the typology of changes that parents at psychosocial risk undergo after an intervention. We compared individual patterns of change in three parenting outcomes in 256 at risk parents with young children attending the group‐based Growing Up Happily in the Family program delivered in municipal social services. We identified four clusters of individual change: Cluster 1 (30.6%) had negative changes in parental child‐rearing attitudes and parenting stress, Cluster 2 (27.7%) had positive changes in child‐rearing attitudes and negative results in parental perceived competence, and Cluster 3 (24.1%) and Cluster 4 (17.6%) showed overall better results. Residential area, type of social support, and quality of implementation characterized cluster membership. Participants in clusters with better results were more satisfied with the program than those with worse results. Practical recommendations are provided for the successful implementation of group parenting programs in family preservation services.     

The Evolving Field of Risk Communication

The 40th Anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis presents an apt time to step back and review the field of risk communication. In this review, we first evaluate recent debates over the field's current state and future directions. Our takeaway is that efforts to settle on a single, generic version of what constitutes risk communication will be less productive than an open-minded exploration of the multiple forms that comprise today's vibrant interdisciplinary field. We then review a selection of prominent cognitive, cultural, and social risk communication scholarship appearing in the published literature since 2010. Studies on trust in risk communication messengers continued to figure prominently, while new research directions emerged on the opportunities and critical challenges of enhancing transparency and using social media. Research on message attributes explored how conceptual insights particularly relating to framing, affective and emotional responses, and uncertainty might be operationalized to improve message effectiveness. Studies consistently demonstrated the importance of evaluation and how varying single attributes alone is unlikely to achieve desired results. Research on risk communication audiences advanced on risk perception and multiway engagement with notable interest in personal factors such as gender, race, age, and political orientation. We conclude by arguing that the field's interdisciplinary tradition should be further nurtured to drive the next evolutionary phase of risk communication research.     

Sustainable consumption and third-party certification labels: Consumers’ perceptions and reactions

Compared with conventional products, sustainable products continue to attract relatively lower market shares. To increase customer acceptance, many sustainable products feature third-party certification labels (TPCL), yet it is unclear whether TPCL are effective and what processes and boundary conditions define their role in consumer decision making. Across three experimental studies, this research determines that sustainable products are characterized by credence qualities, associated with increased perceptions of risk, which negatively influence consumers' purchase intentions. Drawing on signaling theory, this study also shows that TPCL on sustainable products provide brand-like information cues that reduce the perceived risk of sustainable products. Finally, a third experimental study demonstrates that consumers must perceive TPCL as credible for them to reduce consumers’ risk perceptions.     

人口流动导引的家庭代价及发展省思—基于陇东南 Q 村的个案考察

以陇东南 Q 村为个案,在分析农村人口流动动因的基础上,系统梳理了人口流动导引的一系列家庭代价。 家庭功能遭致消解性代价方面,表现为儿童青少年的教育抚养和老年人养老照料功能弱化;家庭风险多发频发性代价方面,表现为婚姻和家庭稳定性下降、青少年越轨行为突出和家庭成员安全风险增大;家庭分化或衰落性代价方面,表现为空巢家庭、隔代家庭和独身家庭大量出现,家庭的空壳化和复杂分化成为部分家庭走向衰落的前兆。 代价视角的分析表明,需要将家庭置于相关制度设置和公共政策讨论的核心,明确家庭建设在中国农村社会具有的特殊的文化价值和现实意义。 发展和守护家庭,调动家庭自我保障、自我调节和服务的功能及积极性,是政府相关政策制定中必须予以重视的关键议题。     

The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats

Desirable system performance in the face of threats has been characterized by various management concepts. Through semistructured interviews with editors of journals in the fields of emergency response and systems management, a literature review, and professional judgment, we identified nine related and often interchangeably used system performance concepts: adaptability, agility, reliability, resilience, resistance, robustness, safety, security, and sustainability. A better understanding of these concepts will allow system planners to pursue management strategies best suited to their unique system dynamics and specific objectives of good performance. We analyze expert responses and review the linguistic definitions and mathematical framing of these concepts to understand their applications. We find a lack of consensus on their usage between interview subjects, but by using the mathematical framing to enrich the linguistic definitions, we formulate comparative visualizations and propose distinct definitions for the nine concepts. We present a conceptual framing to relate the concepts for management purposes.     

Flood Risk Perceptions and Insurance Choice: Do Decisions in the Floodplain Reflect Overoptimism?

In the presence of rare disasters, risk perceptions may not always align with actual risks. These perceptions can nevertheless influence an individual's willingness to mitigate risks through activities such as purchasing flood insurance. In a survey of Maryland floodplain residents, we find that stated risk perceptions predict voluntary flood insurance take‐up, while perceptions themselves varied widely among surveyed residents, owing in large part to differences in past flood experience. We use a formal test for overoptimism in risk perceptions and find that, on aggregate, floodplain residents are overly optimistic about flood risks.     

Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research

Numerous studies and practical experiences with risk have demonstrated the importance of risk perceptions for people's behavior. In this narrative review, we describe and reflect upon some of the lines of research that we feel have been important in helping us understand the factors and processes that shape people's risk perceptions. In our review, we propose that much of the research on risk perceptions to date can be grouped according to three dominant perspectives and, thus, approaches to study design; they are: the characteristics of hazards, the characteristics of risk perceivers, and the application of heuristics to inform risk judgments. In making these distinctions, we also highlight what we see as outstanding challenges for researchers and practitioners. We also highlight a few new research questions that we feel warrant attention.     

Ebola Virus Dose Response Model for Aerosolized Exposures: Insights from Primate Data

This study develops dose–response models for Ebolavirus using previously published data sets from the open literature. Two such articles were identified in which three different species of nonhuman primates were challenged by aerosolized Ebolavirus in order to study pathology and clinical disease progression. Dose groups were combined and pooled across each study in order to facilitate modeling. The endpoint of each experiment was death. The exponential and exact beta-Poisson models were fit to the data using maximum likelihood estimation. The exact beta-Poisson was deemed the recommended model because it more closely approximated the probability of response at low doses though both models provided a good fit. Although transmission is generally considered to be dominated by person-to-person contact, aerosolization is a possible route of exposure. If possible, this route of exposure could be particularly concerning for persons in occupational roles managing contaminated liquid wastes from patients being treated for Ebola infection and the wastewater community responsible for disinfection. Therefore, this study produces a necessary mathematical relationship between exposure dose and risk of death for the inhalation route of exposure that can support quantitative microbial risk assessment aimed at informing risk mitigation strategies including personal protection policies against occupational exposures.     

A Data‐Driven Approach to Assessing Supply Inadequacy Risks Due to Climate‐Induced Shifts in Electricity Demand

The U.S. electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of extreme climate events. Supply inadequacy risk can result from climate‐induced shifts in electricity demand and/or damaged physical assets due to hydro‐meteorological hazards and climate change. In this article, we focus on the risks associated with the unanticipated climate‐induced demand shifts and propose a data‐driven approach to identify risk factors that render the electricity sector vulnerable in the face of future climate variability and change. More specifically, we have leveraged advanced supervised learning theory to identify the key predictors of climate‐sensitive demand in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Our analysis indicates that variations in mean dew point temperature is the common major risk factor across all the three sectors. We have also conducted a statistical sensitivity analysis to assess the variability in the projected demand as a function of the key climate risk factor. We then propose the use of scenario‐based heat maps as a tool to communicate the inadequacy risks to stakeholders and decisionmakers. While we use the state of Ohio as a case study, our proposed approach is equally applicable to all other states.     

Human Error in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployment: A System Dynamics Approach

The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various applications have grown with maturing technology and improved accessibility. The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extremities in the Antarctic. A thorough analysis of risks is therefore crucial for formulating effective risk control policies and achieving a lower risk of loss. Existing risk analysis approaches focused predominantly on the technical aspects, as well as identifying static cause and effect relationships in the chain of events leading to AUV loss. Comparatively, the complex interrelationships between risk variables and other aspects of risk such as human errors have received much lesser attention. In this article, a systems-based risk analysis framework facilitated by system dynamics methodology is proposed to overcome existing shortfalls. To demonstrate usefulness of the framework, it is applied on an actual AUV program to examine the occurrence of human error during Antarctic deployment. Simulation of the resultant risk model showed an overall decline in human error incident rate with the increase in experience of the AUV team. Scenario analysis based on the example provided policy recommendations in areas of training, practice runs, recruitment policy, and setting of risk tolerance level. The proposed risk analysis framework is pragmatically useful for risk analysis of future AUV programs to ensure the sustainability of operations, facilitating both better control and monitoring of risk.