Variability in Cross‐Domain Risk Perception among Smallholder Farmers in Mali by Gender and Other Demographic and Attitudinal Characteristics

Previous research has shown that men and women, on average, have different risk attitudes and may therefore see different value propositions in response to new opportunities. We use data from smallholder farm households in Mali to test whether risk perceptions differ by gender and across domains. We model this potential association across six risks (work injury, extreme weather, community relationships, debt, lack of buyers, and conflict) while controlling for demographic and attitudinal characteristics. Factor analysis highlights extreme weather and conflict as eliciting the most distinct patterns of participant response. Regression analysis for Mali as a whole reveals an association between gender and risk perception, with women expressing more concern except in the extreme weather domain; however, the association with gender is largely absent when models control for geographic region. We also find lower risk perception associated with an individualistic and/or fatalistic worldview, a risk‐tolerant outlook, and optimism about the future, while education, better health, a social orientation, self‐efficacy, and access to information are generally associated with more frequent worry—with some inconsistency. Income, wealth, and time poverty exhibit complex associations with perception of risk. Understanding whether and how men's and women's risk preferences differ, and identifying other dominant predictors such as geographic region and worldview, could help development organizations to shape risk mitigation interventions to increase the likelihood of adoption, and to avoid inadvertently making certain subpopulations worse off by increasing the potential for negative outcomes.     

Linking Decision Theory and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: Tradeoffs Between Compliance and Efficacy for Waterborne Disease Interventions

Achieving health gains from the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of universal coverage for water and sanitation will require interventions that can be widely adopted and maintained. Effectiveness—how an intervention performs based on actual use—as opposed to efficacy will therefore be central to evaluations of new and existing interventions. Incomplete compliance—when people do not always use the intervention and are therefore exposed to contamination—is thought to be responsible for the lower‐than‐expected risk reductions observed from water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions based on their efficacy at removing pathogens. We explicitly incorporated decision theory into a quantitative microbial risk assessment model. Specifically, we assume that the usability of household water treatment (HWT) devices (filters and chlorine) decreases as they become more efficacious due to issues such as taste or flow rates. Simulations were run to examine the tradeoff between device efficacy and usability. For most situations, HWT interventions that trade lower efficacy (i.e., remove less pathogens) for higher compliance (i.e., better usability) contribute substantial reductions in diarrheal disease risk compared to devices meeting current World Health Organization efficacy guidelines. Recommendations that take into account both the behavioral and microbiological properties of treatment devices are likely to be more effective at reducing the burden of diarrheal disease than current standards that only consider efficacy.     

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Benchmark Dose Based on Overdispersed Data from Developmental Toxicity Studies

Developmental anomalies resulting from prenatal toxicity can be manifested in terms of both malformations among surviving offspring and prenatal death. Although these two endpoints have traditionally been analyzed separately in the assessment of risk, multivariate methods of risk characterization have recently been proposed. We examined this and other issues in developmental toxicity risk assessment by evaluating the accuracy and precision of estimates of the effective dose ( ED ₀₅) and the benchmark dose ( BMD ₀₅) using computer simulation. Our results indicated that different variance structures (Dirichlet-trinomial and generalized linear model) used to characterize overdispersion yielded comparable results when fitting joint dose response models based on generalized estimating equations. (The choice of variance structure in separate modeling was also not critical.) However, using the Rao-Scott transformation to eliminate overdispersion tended to produce estimates of the ED ₀₅ with reduced bias and mean squared error. Because joint modeling ensures that the ED ₀₅ for overall toxicity (based on both malformations and prenatal death) is always less than the ED ₀₅ for either malformations or prenatal death, joint modeling is preferred to separate modeling for risk assessment purposes.     

An exploratory study of the influence of the IS function and organizational context on business process reengineering project initiatives

To help evaluate the risk of process reengineering failure and enhance the prospect of its success, three potential sources of influence on BPR initiatives and success are examined in this study. These include the innovative capacity of the organization, IS maturity and strategy-IS interface. It was found that while factors related to IT maturity and influence such as experience in mainframe and client/server computing may facilitate the decision to reengineer, they are not critical in the later stages of the initiative. On the other hand, factors having significant relationships beyond the initial decision include variables pertaining to innovative capacity of the organization and strategy-IS interface. These findings suggest that technical IT competence as a critical enabler is necessary but not sufficient for reengineering success. Based on study findings regarding the innovative capacity of the organization, guidelines for reengineering risk assessment are proposed. In addition, implications of the findings, limitations of the study and opportunities for further research are also discussed.     

Principles for Conduct of Pest Risk Analyses: Report of an Expert Workshop

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.     

Compliance Strategies and Regulatory Effectiveness of Performance-Based Regulation of Chemical Accident Risks

This paper investigates the role that performance-based regulations can play in linking a firm's environmental, health, and safety concerns with their corporate strategy. The specific focus is on the performance standards required by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) which require firms that store or use certain chemicals to develop a Risk Management Plan (RMP) for reducing the likelihood and impact of accidents at their plants. Data from a series of case studies and interviews of executives in chemical firms reveal that proactive companies integrated many of the requirements of the CAAA into their management systems prior to the regulatory requirements. Most of these firms tend to be large ones. Small firms often lack the resources to implement these regulations and hence have tended to have a more difficult time with compliance.     

国有商业银行贷款风险现状分析及优化策略

运用现代商业银行管理理论,对国有商业银行贷款风险的现状与成因进行了分析与探索,并就国有商业银行贷款风险的控制及优化策略作了论述,     

抽象体系的危机与吉登斯的制度性风险研究

现代风险的本质是一种制度性风险。抽象体系作为现代社会运行的基础,是吉登斯理解和分析现代制度性风险的核心概念,而现代性断裂的理论假设、现实主义的风险认知取向以及制度与结构的研究视角是理解吉登斯制度性风险理论的3个基本维度。吉登斯通过抽象体系的危机对现代风险进行了深刻剖析,具体表现为符号系统的异化产生了文化风险,专家系统的失信导致了技术风险与政治风险。吉登斯作为一个制度主义者,认为反思性的制度建构是突破现代风险困境的出路。     

重思邻避困境的风险沟通与治理问题:基于核电的讨论

如何赢得民意和社会许可已经是目前国内核电风险设施选址过程中的主要障碍。而要破解该难题,我们既需要在微观层面针对潜在风险承担者的利益补偿,针对风险感知差异之重点群体开展理性沟通和共识协商,同时也更需要宏观层面的制度建设,通过制度化措施来缓解社会不信任,将我国在环评和社会稳评等风险沟通领域的相关制度安排落实为具体实践,并突破结构性障碍,在风险协商治理方面创新政治过程和制度,以制度的确定性来适应,甚至控制技术风险的不确定性。     

系统信任、风险感知与转基因水稻公众接受——基于三省市调查数据的分析

基于重庆、湖北、浙江三省市城镇居民的入户抽样调查数据,分析我国公众对转基因水稻的接受态度及区域差异。研究发现,转基因水稻的接受态度存在区域差异,湖北、重庆分样本的接受度明显高于浙江;从影响因素来看,总体上城镇居民转基因水稻接受态度主要是受粮食安全收益感知、对科技系统的信任程度、健康与环境风险感知等因素影响,分样本比较显示浙江城镇居民的态度较之重庆、湖北受到更多风险感知因素的影响。基于此,提出了农业科技风险管理中注重粮食安全、培育科学自生系统等建议。