Health Risk and Portfolio Choice

This article investigates the role of self-perceived risky health in explaining continued reductions in financial risk taking after retirement. If future adverse health shocks threaten to increase the marginal utility of consumption, either by absorbing wealth or by changing the utility function, then health risk should prompt individuals to lower their exposure to financial risk. I examine individual-level data from the Study of Assets and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD), which reveal that risky health prompts safer investment. Elderly singles respond the most to health risk, consistent with a negative cross partial deriving from health shocks that impede home production. Spouses and planned bequests provide some degree of hedging. Risky health may explain 20%% of the age-related decline in financial risk taking after retirement.     

知识共享对供应链信用风险传染的影响研究

将企业间知识共享这一因素引入供应链上下游企业博弈过程,在完全信息条件下研究三级供应链中零售商分别与分销商、制造商进行知识共享时知识共享量与企业信用风险水平和供应链信用风险传染强度之间的关系,并结合算例进行了数值分析.基于Stackelberg博弈模型的研究结果表明,供应链上的知识共享有助于降低供应链成员企业的信用风险;进行知识共享的企业间信用风险传染强度随着知识共享量的增加而增大;企业进行知识共享比不进行知识共享时受到其它企业信用风险传染的影响大.     

The portfolio choice problem: comparison of certainty equivalence and optimal Bayes portfolios

For the portfolio problem with unknown parameter values, we compare the conventional certainty equivalence portfolio choice with the optimal Bayes portfolio. In the important single risky asset case a diffuse Bayes rule leads to portfolios that differ significantly from those suggested by a certainty equivalence rule which we show are inadmissible relative to a quadratic utility function for the range of parameters we consider. These results are invariant to arbitrary changes in the utility function parameters. We illustrate the results using a simple mutual fund example.     

Minimum average risk estimators for coefficients in linear models

We consider the problem of estimating the coefficient vector β of a linear regression model with quadratic loss function. Some biased estimators which utilize the prior information about β are considered. Also studied is the problem of estimating the parameters of an over-identified structural equation from undersized samples.     

An Integral Bhattacharyya Type Bound for the Bayes Risk

In this article, some results are derived on stochastic comparisons of the residual and past lifetimes of an (n ? k + 1)-out-of-n system with dependent components. These findings generalize some recent results obtained on systems with independent components and provide some interesting results for a system with dependent components following an Archimedean copula. An illustrative example is provided.     

Approximate Bayes estimation of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions under Type-2 censoring

The main goal of this paper is to develop the approximate Bayes estimation of the five-dimensional vector of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions (MTIWD) under Type-2 censoring. Usually, the posterior distribution is complicated under the scheme of Type-2 censoring and the integrals that are involved cannot be obtained in a simple explicit form. In this study, we use Lindley's [Approximate Bayesian method, Trabajos Estadist. 31 (1980), pp. 223–237] approximate form of Bayes estimation in the case of an MTIWD under Type-2 censoring. Later, we calculate the estimated risks (ERs) of the Bayes estimates and compare them with the corresponding ERs of the maximum-likelihood estimates through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we analyse a real data set using the findings.     

基于多维度感知风险的中国公众无偿献血意愿及影响因素分析

基于多维度感知风险,调查中国公众的献血意愿现状,探讨其影响因素,为无偿献血者招募与保留工作提供科学依据。本文从公众对献血行为、心理、情境、制度、偏见、服务、宣传七个维度的感知风险入手,在问卷调查与因素分析的基础上,基于实证分析,解释各种因素之间的相互关系,揭示不同特征中国公众献血意愿的差异,进而有针对性地制定无偿献血招募及保留措施,促进我国无偿献血事业可持续发展。     

地缘政治风险的测度与经济效应分析

地缘政治风险日渐高企,冲击和影响着全球贸易与投资,构成左右全球经济复苏、政治格局演变和地缘关系重构的推力,也成为国内外国际政治、国际关系、国际经济等领域关注研究的前沿问题。通过梳理分析近些年地缘政治风险的经济效应,即地缘政治风险的技术创新效应、开放经济效应、经济增长效应等,试图为研究和制定相关政策提供研究脉络、研究内容、主要观点和前景展望等方面的一些有益启发。     

The asymptotic distribution of the partial attributable risk in cross-sectional studies

The partial attributable risk (PAR) has been introduced as a tool for partitioning the responsibility for causing an adverse event between various risk factors. It has arisen from epidemiology, but it is also a valid general risk allocation concept, which can, for example, be applied to data from customer satisfaction surveys. So far, a variance formula for the PAR has been missing so that the confidence intervals were not directly available. This paper provides the asymptotic normal distribution for the PAR determined from a cross-sectional study.     

Optimum Critical Value for Pre-Test Estimator

In this paper, methods are proposed in finding the robust design in both Taguchi and Standard setups when a signal factor is present. The robust design is a set of level combinations of control factors so that the effect of controllable noise factors on response is minimum. Both univariate and multivariate methods are used in finding the influential noise factors for the determination of robust designs.