基于RS分析的中国债券市场分形特征研究

文章详细讨论了RS分析方法、概率空间分形维的测度,通过对上证国债指数和上证企债指数的RS分析,得到了两序列赫斯特指数和非周期循环长度,进一步得出中国债券市场为分形市场的结论.     

中国产业结构变动与就业水平的实证研究

文章运用时间序列和计量模型研究了中国产业结构与就业水平之间的发展关系.首先运用格兰杰因果检验分析了第一、二、三次产业的产值与其就业之间的因果影响关系,继而从产值与就业两个角度定量分析了第一、二、三次产业各自对总就业水平的贡献,得出结论:第一产业和第三产业是劳动力就业的决定因素,而第二产业不是就业的决定因素;从产值角度来看,第三产业对劳动力就业的贡献最大,从就业角度来看,第一产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最高,其次是第三产业,而第二产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最小.最后根据研究结论提出相应的建议措施.     

中国基础设施投资对经济增长波动的冲击效应分析

基础设施是经济发展的重要影响因素，而“基础设施投资促进经济发展”这一主流观点已得到广泛共识，但人们对经济增长与基础设施的探讨仅局限于总量的分析框架，并未对基础设施的类型加以区分，更没发现经济发展的不同阶段对基础设施的需求结构也是不同的。而以“基础设施投资促进经济发展”为出发点，将基础设施投资细分为生产性、生活性、社会性基础设施投资，并分别讨论其对经济的影响。通过邹检验发现：自1994年以来，基础设施投资冲击改变了中国经济增长的特征。其结论是生产性、生活性基础设施对经济增长的影响是明确的、同步的，但社会性基础设施对经济增长的作用是不确定的。因此，加强社会性基础设施投资是一个渐进地逐步推进的过程。     

大学生数学成绩影响因素的实证分析

伴随着近几年高校的扩大招生,部分大学生的数学成绩显著下降。用统计学软件SPSS 13.0对哈尔滨工程大学部分学生的高等数学成绩及其相关因素进行统计分析,考察学生的高考数学成绩、性别、生源所在地等因素对其大学数学成绩的影响。在给出了一些切实可行的对策和建议的同时,指出培养大学生学习的主动性和研究探索精神,已经成为当今高校教师和教育工作者培养高素质人才和提高教学水平的关键。     

我国商业银行无形资产统计问题研究

摘　　要:商业银行无形资产是形成商业银行核心竞争力的基础和产生超额收益的源泉,加强商业银行无形资产统计工作,有利于充分揭示商业银行无形资产基本内容和对核心竞争力的影响。笔者认为,目前我国商业银行无形资产统计指标体系设置不完整,统计制度不健全,统计内容不全面,统计分析不深入,影响经济决策。笔者认为,完善商业银行无形资产统计制度时,应从组织结构类、客户关系类、知识创新类和人力资本类等四个方面对无形资产进行统计,逐步细化统计指标,明确具体的统计内容,建立、健全无形资产价值信息系统,深化无形资产统计分析工作,以此为基础,提出提高商业银行核心竞争力的基本策略。     

统计代理制的理性探索

基层统计是中国政府统计的基础,提高警惕基层统计质量是提高中国统计数据质量的关键,而建立与社会经济体制相适应的基层统计管理制度又是提高基层统计质量的根本保证.在社会主义市场经济体制下,我国基层统计环境发生了全新变化,为了适应新的变化,必须建立基层统计代理制,基层统计代理制是统计经济成分多元化,社会分工细化,统计利益市场化和统计工作规范化的必然要求 .在我国建立基层统计代理制具有法律可行性,技术档行性和经济可行性.随着统计代理制的实施,我国基层统计的数据来源将会更有保障,数据质量将会稳步提升,工作效率将会大大提高,从而促进我国统计事业兴旺发达.     

Multiple-arm superiority and non-inferiority designs with various endpoints

Multiple-arm dose-response superiority trials are widely studied for continuous and binary endpoints, while non-inferiority designs have been studied recently in two-arm trials. In this paper, a unified asymptotic formulation of a sample size calculation for k-arm (k>0) trials with different endpoints (continuous, binary and survival endpoints) is derived for both superiority and non-inferiority designs. The proposed method covers the sample size calculation for single-arm and k-arm (k> or =2) designs with survival endpoints, which has not been covered in the statistic literature. A simple, closed form for power and sample size calculations is derived from a contrast test. Application examples are provided. The effect of the contrasts on the power is discussed, and a SAS program for sample size calculation is provided and ready to use.     

Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

Political constructions of a cross-community identity in a divided society: how politicians articulate Northern Irishness

ABSTRACT

A shared identity has been shown to reduce prejudice between conflicting social groups. One such common national category is the ‘Northern Irish’ identity which can be inclusive of both Catholics and Protestants. This study analyses the plenary sessions of the Northern Ireland Assembly to show how the national category ‘Northern Irish’ is framed by politicians. Content analysis shows that it is used more often by centrist parties who tend to frame it positively and as part of their political viewpoint. There is also evidence of the instrumental use of this identity by unionists in line with the ingroup projection model.