Reliability of global sensitivity indices

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an essential ingredient of model development and applications. For many uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques, sensitivity indices are calculated based on a relatively large sample to measure the importance of parameters in their contributions to uncertainties in model outputs. To statistically compare their importance, it is necessary that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques provide standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices. In this paper, a delta method is used to analytically approximate standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices for a popular sensitivity analysis method, the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Standard errors estimated based on the delta method were compared with those estimated based on 20 sample replicates. We found that the delta method can provide a good approximation for the standard errors of both first-order and higher-order sensitivity indices. Finally, based on the standard error approximation, we also proposed a method to determine a minimum sample size to achieve the desired estimation precision for a specified sensitivity index. The standard error estimation method presented in this paper can make the FAST analysis computationally much more efficient for complex models.     

汇率变动对日本贸易收支影响的实证研究

通过汇率变动对日本贸易收支影响的协整分析,发现实际有效汇率升值会引起日本的贸易顺差减少,但是汇率升值对日本贸易收支的影响不是十分显著,贸易收支的变动还要受到其他各种因素的制约。     

国际收支平衡调控分析

针对中国国际收支不平衡问题,采用对比分析的方法,分析了国际收支存在服务、收益项目发展滞后,净误差与遗漏账户逆差,外汇储备过大等问题,提出处理好货物出口与服务出口,汇率贬值与升值,储备增长与防范风险,加强收支统计与打击逃汇、骗汇关系等解决策略。研究结论对调控国际收支有指导意义。     

论会计平衡式的重构

当我们从会计平衡式的经济意义角度去理解会计平衡式时,现代会计平衡式不能完整、准确表达企业资本资源,从而导致歪曲企业盈利能力等局限性.新的会计平衡式构造,应该克服这些局限,并且还应该将所有与企业资本资源相关的多边权益方加以体现.     

天人合一与生态平衡论

天人合一、与自然相和谐是古代中国人对人与自然关系的深刻认识。它强调的是人必须遵循自然规律 ,合理开发利用自然 ,保护自然 ,是生态道德理性与生态实践理性的统一。天人合一理想的实现也将是生态平衡的实现。它所反映的生态思想可以为现代处在生态危机严重困扰的人们提供重要的价值支持资源。     

Book Reviews

This article examines some difficulties associated with the Haynes–Stone model and attempts to clarify how the model can be justified as representing the hypothesis that “quantity is demand determined and price is supply determined.” It also argues that the applications of such a model as was done by Haynes and Stone might not have resolved the controversies related to the Phillips curve and the supply function of exports (or imports).     

Use of balanced bipartite weighing designs as chemical balance designs

This paper deals with the use of balanced bipartite weighing designs as chemical balance designs when there Is a restriction on the number of objects that can be placed on either pan..The variance of each estimated weight and the covarlance of each pair of estimated weights are worked out.The use of additional weighing when the design matrix is singular is discussed.     

平衡记分卡在高校教师绩效考核中的应用

在阐述绩效与绩效考核本质内涵的基础上,针对目前高校教师绩效考核中普遍存在的战略目标缺失问题,指标失真问题,方法单一问题,结果运用乏力问题等,根据平衡记分卡的核心思想,尝试将平衡记分卡评价模型引入高校教师绩效考核中,并提出了一种基于平衡记分卡理论的考核方法,力求客观公正科学地评价教师,以达到绩效考核的目的。     

刑事证人保护问题探析

刑事证人保护是刑事司法中的一个重要问题，证人作证难、出庭难问题与其有着直接关联，我国立法只强调证人作证义务，忽视对证人的保护，合理解决刑事证人保护问题是审判方式改革和人权保障的必然要求。为此，必须建立完整的刑事证人保护制度，明确刑事证人保护对象范围、权利保障内容、保护机构及措施等，以使证人的人身、人格、财产权益得到有效的保护。     

晚清督抚制度与权力制衡

清朝统治者继承并改善了督抚制度，建立了一套较为完善的权力体系，使中央与地方之间保持了200多年的制衡状态。19世纪中叶，由于战争的原因，这种平衡被打破。太平天国运动的爆发，晚清地方督抚彻底掌握了交战各省的军政大权，政令、军令得以统一。这一方面为清朝在战争中获得胜利奠定了基础，另一方面也造成了中央与地方权力的失衡。