农民社会阶层越高越幸福吗?——基于CGSS 2010-2015年数据的微观分析

针对农民社会阶层与幸福感问题，通过分析2010-2015年“中国综合社会调查”数据，采用有序响应Logit模型估计，实证检验了农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应。研究发现，农民社会阶层定位存在幸福效应，社会阶层定位越高的农民，其幸福感越强；进一步区域比较发现，此幸福效应在经济发达地区最为显著；而户籍比较发现，农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应低于城镇居民；但从发展趋势来看，农民社会阶层定位的幸福效应较10年前有所增强，且农民对社会阶层定位有较为乐观的预期。据此提出，民生建设中重视农民的发展诉求和精神需求，融通农民社会阶层上升的渠道，从而提高农民幸福感，保障农民公平共享社会发展的成果。     

Replication: Revisiting Tversky and Shafir’s (1992) Disjunction Effect with an extension comparing between and within subject designs

Does uncertainty about an outcome influence decisions? The sure-thing principle (Savage, 1954) posits that it should not, but Tversky and Shafir (1992) found that people regularly violate it in hypothetical gambling and vacation decisions, a phenomenon they termed “disjunction effect”. Very close replications and extensions of Tversky and Shafir (1992) were conducted in this paper (N = 890, MTurk). The target article demonstrated the effect using two paradigms in a between-subject design: here, an extension also testing a within-subject design, with design being randomly assigned was added. These results were consistent with the original findings for the “paying to know“ problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.22, 95% (CI) [0.14, 0.32]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.30, 95% CI [0.24, 0.37]), yet not for the “choice under risk” problem (original: Cramer’s V = 0.26, 95% CI [0.14, 0.39]; replication: Cramer’s V = 0.11, 95% CI [−0.07, 0.20]). The within-subject extension showed very similar results. Implications for the disjunction effect and judgment and decision-making theory are discussed, and a call for improvements on the statistical understanding of comparisons of between-subject and within-subject designs is introduced. All materials, data, and code are available on https://osf.io/gu58m/.     

房价对企业技术创新产出的成本效应与投资效应研究——基于A股上市公司数据的实证分析

文章将房价对企业创新水平的影响归结为"成本效应"及"投资效应"两种影响机制，并分析了房地产价格、房产性投资行为、房产性投资的深化以及企业技术创新产出之间的关系。文章的创新之处在于，将创新要素投入和创新管理水平作为中介变量，从理论和实证两方面检验房价和创新产出的关系。基于提出的理论观点利用A股上市公司数据，对研究假设进行了实证研究，得到如下结论：房价对企业技术创新水平的影响机制至少是通过"成本效应"与"投资效应"两条渠道实现的；房价对企业技术创新水平的"成本效应"是通过技术创新投入作为中介对技术创新成果产生影响；房价对企业技术创新水平的"投资效应"是通过技术创新管理水平作为中介对技术创新成果产生影响；未能证实房产性投资会挤压上市公司技术创新投入。文章的研究结论具有以下重要政策启示意义：应当重视房地产价格对企业技术创新产出的"成本效应"。在新旧动能转换的背景下，创新人才的稀缺性提高了其在劳动力市场的议价能力，作为生活必需品的房屋价格上涨，会导致创新人才的劳动力价格随之上涨，这势必加大企业技术创新投入的负担，影响企业的转型升级和长期发展质量；A股企业的房地产投资并未挤压技术创新投入，但降低了企业创新的效率。在政策上，应当制定相关技术创新效率的考察指标，促进骨干型企业重视其创新效率的提升。     

逆向选择条件下带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型及其Pareto改进性研究

为了更有效的规避影响保险市场交易效率的逆向选择问题，本文分投保人风险类型为两种和多种情形建立了带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型，首次提出可以用奖励金和惩罚金有效甄别投保人的风险类型。该模型根据投保人第一个保险期内的索赔情况在第二个保险期对其进行奖励或惩罚，高风险类型的投保人如果选择为低风险类型投保人设计的保险契约，则其在第二阶段受到惩罚的概率要远远大于得到奖励的概率，即风险越高的投保人越害怕惩罚金，因此所建模型满足斯彭斯-莫里斯分离条件。带奖惩金的两期保险契约模型中保险公司的期望利润仍然为0，并不会给投保人带来额外的经济负担，却能够实现对传统部分保险契约简单重复两次的严格帕累托改进。最后采用一个算例说明了该模型的有效性。     

Reputation spillover effects from grant‐providing institutions

There is a broad academic discussion about the impact of funding grants from a foundation or a government department on individual support intentions toward the nonprofit organization receiving the grant. However, the role of the grant provider's reputation has frequently been overlooked. In this study, we experimentally tested whether there is a reputation spillover effect of a grant‐providing organization. Based on a real‐life example, we asked citizens to rate their willingness to donate to a nonprofit organization, and we experimentally manipulated the available information on funding sources. We test this for both a government department and a foundation as a grant provider. Our results suggest that not the act of receiving a grant, but the citizens' awareness about the funding organization—at least in the case of a foundation—has an impact on support intentions. In contrast, for a prominent government department as a grant provider, we did not find support for a reputation spillover effect.     

土地流转中为什么会形成大量小农复制

土地流转是实现规模化经营的前提之一,然而土地流转中却出现大量小农复制,从而影响土地流转的质量和效果。运用12省(自治区)2 553份农户问卷,详细分析土地流转中小农复制的现状及其形成原因。研究发现：(1)农户流转耕地面积不大,转入户流转面积20亩及以下的约占总转入户数的60.3％,转出户流转面积5亩及以下的约占总转出户数的74.38％,转出户中仍然经营土地的约占总转出户数的74％。(2)农业分工发达使生产更加方便、文化传统形成路径依赖、禀赋效应产生“价值幻觉”以及公共服务不健全使未来存在不确定性导致转出户流转部分土地。乡土社会限制土地流转范围和经营风险增加风险感知导致转入户流转小规模土地。     

From the Digital Divide to the Connectivity Dividend Difference: A Connectivity Capital Perspective*

The access divide was once the basic form of the digital divide. The development of Internet infrastructure has narrowed the access divide and increased application coverage, but it has also touched off a connectivity dividend difference. Taking the online market as an example, we examine the sources of the dividend difference and the factors influencing it with in a connectivity framework. We found that the narrowing of the access divide has resulted in enhanced connectivity and platform development, giving people the chance to benefit from transforming the various assets in which they have previously invested into differentiated compound connectivity capital. In the course, the scale and rate of the conversion are affected by two multiplier effects and especially by online platforms. The process is ultimately expressed in the dividend difference.     

Conditional Akaike Information Criteria for a Class of Poisson Mixture Models with Random Effects

Focusing on the model selection problems in the family of Poisson mixture models (including the Poisson mixture regression model with random effects and zero‐inflated Poisson regression model with random effects), the current paper derives two conditional Akaike information criteria. The criteria are the unbiased estimators of the conditional Akaike information based on the conditional log‐likelihood and the conditional Akaike information based on the joint log‐likelihood, respectively. The derivation is free from the specific parametric assumptions about the conditional mean of the true data‐generating model and applies to different types of estimation methods. Additionally, the derivation is not based on the asymptotic argument. Simulations show that the proposed criteria have promising estimation accuracy. In addition, it is found that the criterion based on the conditional log‐likelihood demonstrates good model selection performance under different scenarios. Two sets of real data are used to illustrate the proposed method.     

公共卫生支出、健康结果与卫生投入政策——基于189个国家和地区的面板门槛分析（1995—2011年）

利用189个国家和地区1995—2011年的数据实证检验公共卫生支出规模对一个国家的健康结果（婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命）的影响，结果表明，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重对婴儿死亡率和出生时的平均期望寿命的影响具有门槛效应，门槛值分别位于1.9%和6.62%。分段回归结果显示，公共卫生支出占GDP的比重低于1.9%时，公共卫生投入对出生时的平均期望寿命没有显著影响，对婴儿死亡率的影响较弱；超过1.9%后，公共卫生投入的规模效应开始体现，对健康结果指标的影响均显著增强；超过6.62%后，公共卫生投入对婴儿死亡率的影响不再显著，对出生时平均期望寿命的弹性系数不再变化，单位边际贡献不再增加。中国当前政府卫生投入规模仍然较低，需要继续增大公共资金投入、降低个人卫生支出比重。